Impact of AQUA Satellite Data on Hurricane Forecast: Danielle 2010

This study focuses on the impact of AQUA satellite data from AIRS and AMSU on the forecast of hurricane Danielle by the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. The data assimilation method adopted to ingest the data is the Gridpoint Statistical method (GSI) which is based on the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation technique. Two experiments were carried out to investigate the impact of AQUA satellite radiance observation on the forecast of hurricane Danielle. The first experiment (Control) assimilated all the available data while the second experiment (No AQUA) incorporated all the observations but the AQUA satellite data. Data assimilation cycling started one week prior to hurricane genesis, on 15 August 2010 06 UTC. The root mean square track forecast error shows slightly negative impact at the early lead time and slightly positive impact at later lead time. However, the root mean square intensity forecast errors by the Control are shown to be lower than No AQUA for all forecast hours, indicating positive impact of the AQUA data on the intensity forecast

Evaluating preferred direction tropical cyclone track variability in an operational global ensemble prediction system

Ensemble forecasts of Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Sandy (2012) highlight instances where variability in tropical cyclone (TC) position forecasts are stretched along a preferred direction. The goal of this thesis is to analyze this stretching of variability in a global ensemble prediction system, particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to determine how often and under what conditions does variability stretching occur, and ultimately what feature(s) are responsible for generating this variability

Wintertime Climate Variability in the Lake Michigan Region: Sensitivity of Snowfall to Temperature and Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

Using available long-term stations, a wintertime climatology of temperature and snowfall since 1950 has been composited for the region near Lake Michigan. The seasonal snowfall characteristics of six sub-region composites were subsequently explored, using composites for three sub-regions to the west and east of Lake Michigan, respectively. While snowfall records can be problematic due to observer changes, data within a given sub-region mostly exhibit similar variability. Not surprisingly, locations to the east of Lake Michigan have higher average seasonal snowfall and greater snowfall variability than their upstream counterparts. The variations correlate fairly well among neighboring sub-regions, with the weakest relationship between northwest and southeast regions. There is a clear relationship between snowfall and temperature, with colder winters producing greater snowfall than milder winters. However, this sensitivity is strongest in the lake-effect prone regions to the east of the lake, with an effective de-correlation of snowfall and temperature in the northwest zone. As anticipated, El Niño winters are warmer and less snowy on average than neutral and La Niña winters. The North Atlantic Oscillation has the strongest relationship to snowfall in eastern regions, with a weaker correlation in the western zones. The Pacific North America and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices do not have a clear relationship with snowfall or temperature in the eastern zones, but do exhibit a relationship to snowfall in the northwest zones. Principle Component Analysis was utilized to further explore the temporal variability, as well as generate a regional wintertime index. The leading PC exhibits substantial noise, super-imposed on a trend toward less cold and snowy winters. Snowfall trends were also examined for each sub-region, with a downward trend in recent decades most pronounced in the southeastern sub-region. This has been mostly driven by the tails of the snowfall season; an additional student group has been exploring the November data in detail

Predictability of African easterly waves in an operational ensemble prediction system

African easterly waves (AEWs) are the primary synoptic-scale weather feature found in sub-Saharan Africa during boreal summer. Many studies have used observations and idealized models to highlight processes associated with the movement and growth of AEWs, yet there have been few studies documenting the performance of operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for these phenomena. Here, the predictability of AEWs in ECMWF EPS forecasts is assessed during two periods of enhanced AEW activity (July--September 2007--2009 and 2011--2013). Specifically, AEW predictability is analyzed through three main areas of focus: 1) verifying AEW position and intensity forecasts, and assessing their relation to convective errors; 2) evaluating environmental features associated with AEW intensity uncertainty; and 3) understanding AEW intensification differences for individual forecasts

Morphology, Mineralogy, and Hydrology of Soils in the Triassic Culpeper Basin of Maryland

Soils derived from red parent materials are problematic in terms of morphologically assessing their hydrology because these parent materials are known to retard the development of redoximorphic features within their sola. This retardation phenomena may lead to misinterpretations of these soils for both agricultural and engineering purposes. Such soils occur within the Triassic Culpeper Basin of Maryland. Eleven pedons along two topohydrosequences within this basin were therefore investigated to determine the interrelationships between the soil morphology, mineralogy, and hydrology, particularly as these pertain to the development of redoximorphic features in these soils. These soils are derived from dusky red (SYR 4/4) parent materials which retard the development of redoximorphic features. Morphological descriptions of each pedon were made and the water table was monitored in both open boreholes and slotted PVC pipes at staggered depths. Bulk samples of each horizon were collected for mineralogical and chemical analyses. Results indicate that hematite is the only iron oxide in the underlying red shales and sandstones of this basin. The hematite in the soils is then inherited during pedogenesis and is responsible for the red hues exhibited throughout the profiles of the better-drained pedons and in the lower sola of the more poorly-drained pedons. Results of parent material uniformity indicate the presence of either loess, colluvium, alluvium, or mixtures of these materials with residuum within the upper sola of these same pedons. Residual, or principally residually-derived, soils remain predominantly red throughout their profile, independent of hydrology. Soils formed from non-uniform parent materials exhibit yellower hues, particularly within their upper sola. Thus, the pedogenic yellowing of these pedons may be due to either the incorporation of more easily altered foreign material than that derived from weathering of the red residual parent materials or to the presence of a seasonally-high water table in the upper sola of these pedons. Even though redoximorphic features are created through redox processes, the nature of the parent materials appears to mediate their degree of development. This study suggests that the degree of parent material uniformity be assessed prior to any judgment on the drainage classes of similar soils

Impact of AQUA Satellite Data on Hurricane Forecast: Danielle 2010

This study focuses on the impact of AQUA satellite data from AIRS and AMSU on the forecast of hurricane Danielle by the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. The data assimilation method adopted to ingest the data is the Gridpoint Statistical method (GSI) which is based on the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation technique. Two experiments were carried out to investigate the impact of AQUA satellite radiance observation on the forecast of hurricane Danielle. The first experiment (Control) assimilated all the available data while the second experiment (No AQUA) incorporated all the observations but the AQUA satellite data. Data assimilation cycling started one week prior to hurricane genesis, on 15 August 2010 06 UTC. The root mean square track forecast error shows slightly negative impact at the early lead time and slightly positive impact at later lead time. However, the root mean square intensity forecast errors by the Control are shown to be lower than No AQUA for all forecast hours, indicating positive impact of the AQUA data on the intensity forecast

Radionuclide containment in soil by phosphate treatment

Radionuclide transport from a contaminant source to groundwater and surface water is a common problem faced by most US Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. Containment of the radionuclide plume, including strontium-90 and uranium, is possible using phosphate treatment as a chemical stabilizer. Such a chemical process occurs in soils under natural environmental conditions. Therefore, the concept of phosphate amendment for radiostrontium and uranium immobilization is already a proven principle. In this presentation, results of bench-scale experiments and the concept of a field-scale demonstration are discussed. The phosphate treatment is possible at the source or near the advancing contaminant plume. Cleanup is still the ideal concept; however, containment through stabilization is a more practical and costeffective concept that should be examined by DOE Environmental Restoration programs

A C-Band, Dual-Polarimetric Radar Analysis of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System: The 25 May 2011 Northern Illinois and Indiana Tornado Event

During the morning hours of 25 May 2011, at least six tornadoes struck a narrow corridor of Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana. Two tornadoes were rated EF0, three EF1, and one EF2. These tornadoes occurred in conjunction with a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that traveled northeast across the region during the early to mid-morning hours, between 1200 UTC and 1500 UTC. The tornadoes occurred at least 65 km away from the nearest NEXRAD WSR-88D radar site. The confirmed tornadoes from this event occurred without severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings likely due to the fact that (1) the squall-line was oriented parallel to the radar beam, (2) there were minimal real-time spotter reports, (3) embedded circulations were shallow, and (4) the tornado-producing storms did not exhibit classic radar signatures at the nearest NEXRAD locations. The tornadoes occurred anywhere from approximately 50-75 km from the C-band dual-polarimetric radar located on the campus of Valparaiso University in Valparaiso, IN. In this presentation, we examine the data gathered from the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar at Valparaiso University. We review the data in hopes of revealing methods that could have better detected the tornadoes produced during this event