Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1973-1999, Featuring Implications of Age and Aging on U.S. Cancer Burden

BACKGROUND. The American Cancer Society, the National Cancer Institute, the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR), the National Institute on Aging (NIA), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, including the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, collaborated to provide an annual update on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This year’s report contained a special feature focusing on implications of age and aging on the U.S. cancer burden. METHODS. For 1995 through 1999, age-specific rates and age-adjusted rates were calculated for the major cancers using incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, the National Program of Cancer Registries, and the NAACCR, and mortality data from NCHS. Join point analysis, a model of joined line segments, was used to examine 1973-1999 trends in incidence and death rates by age for the four most common cancers. Deaths were classified using the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. Age-adjusted incidence and death rates were standardized to the year 2000 population, which places more emphasis on older persons, in whom cancer rates are higher. RESULTS. Across all ages, overall cancer death rates decreased in men and women from 1993 through 1999, while cancer incidence rates stabilized from 1995 through 1999. Age-specific trends varied by site, sex, and race. For example, breast cancer incidence rates increased in women aged 50-64 years, whereas breast cancer death rates decreased in each age group. However, a major determinant of the future cancer burden is the demographic phenomenon of the aging and increasing size of the U.S. population. The total number of cancer cases can be expected to double by 2050 if current incidence rates remain stable. CONCLUSIONS. Despite the continuing decrease in cancer death rates and stabilization of cancer incidence rates, the overall growth and aging of the U.S. population can be expected to increase the burden of cancer in our nation