A four-dimensional population module for the analysis of future adaptive capacity in the Phang Nga province of Thailand

In this paper we describe an innovative aspect of the population module in the context of an ongoing comprehensive modelling effort to assess future populationenvironment interactions through specific case studies. A particular focus of our study is the vulnerability of coastal populations to environmental factors and their future adaptive capacity. Based on the four-dimensional cross-classification of populations by age, sex, level of education, and labour force participation, our approach builds on a recent body of research that has critically assessed the role of demographic differentials as determinants of differential vulnerability and adaptive capacity. We use Phang Nga, a province in the south of Thailand that was severely affected by the tsunami in 2004, to describe current levels of educational attainment and investigate past trends, which in turn serve as input for detailed education projections. These education projections, in combination with projections of economic activity and household survey results about disaster preparedness, feed into further analysis of future adaptive capacity. Given our specifications and assumptions, we find that the educational composition of the province's labour force will shift towards higher levels, and that the population of Phang Nga will be better prepared for future disasters

The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment

The extension of late working life in Germany : trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment

Demographic Profile of the Arab Region: Realizing the Demographic Dividend

The paper provides a detailed overview of population dynamics and trends in the Arab region. Furthermore, it explains the concept of demographic dividend and timing of the window of opportunity. With a view to enable countries in the region to reap the benefits of the changing population structure, the window is calculated for each country. The last part of the paper presents four case studies of countries that benefitted from their demographic dividend

Langzeitprojekt Deutsche Einheit - Folgen des Umbruchs sind gerade bei der "Wendegeneration" weiterhin sichtbar

Durch die Deutsche Einheit konnten in Ostdeutschland alle Generationen Zugewinne an politischer und wirtschaftlicher Freiheit erlangen. Die Auswirkungen des Einheitsprozesses auf die Lebensläufe und Lebenssituationen sind dagegen sehr unterschiedlich auf die Generationen verteilt. Einige haben in erheblichem Maße profitiert, während in anderen Generationen viele Personen mit Herausforderungen und Verlusterfahrungen konfrontiert waren. Von den wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen des Einheitsprozesses waren besonders die zwischen 1960 und 1985 geborenen Personen betroffen. Diese "Wendegeneration" befand sich in den Zeiten des Umbruchs in einer Lebensphase, in der die Weichen für das Erwerbsleben und die Familiengründung gestellt werden. Viele Personen der Wendegeneration konnten ihr Leben dennoch erfolgreich gestalten, wobei ein nicht unerheblicher Teil dabei die Heimatregion verlassen hat. Daneben findet sich in dieser Generation aber auch ein höherer Anteil von Personen, bei denen der Umbruch deutliche Spuren in den Lebensläufen hinterlassen hat. Die besonderen Herausforderungen, mit welchen diese Wendegeneration konfrontiert war, stehen kaum im öffentlichen Fokus

Globale Bevölkerungsentwicklung: Fakten und Trends

Während die Weltbevölkerung insgesamt betrachtet noch stets zunimmt weisen einzelne Weltregionen und Länder regional unterschiedliche Trends auf. Geburten, Sterbefälle und Wanderungen sind zudem einem kontinuierlichen Wandel unterworfen. Diese Bevölkerungsprozesse stehen heute im Mittelpunkt einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung, wie sie von den Vereinten Nationen mit der Agenda 2030 und den nachhaltigen Entwicklungszielen (Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs) verfolgt wird. Zur nachhaltigen Gestaltung menschlicher Entwicklung ist es erforderlich, die Ursachen und Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels zu verstehen, um die künftige Bevölkerungsentwicklung besser einschätzen und ihren Einfluss auf Gesellschaft, Wirtschaft und Umwelt berücksichtigen zu können. Die Broschüre bietet in 12 knappen Kapiteln mit Abbildungen und Karten einen aktuellen Überblick zur globalen Bevölkerungsdynamik im Kontext nachhaltiger Entwicklung

Quantifying Economic Dependency

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change

Demographic Scenarios for the EU

Over the recent decades, the EU has been shaped by population growth, but now its population is ageing. Together with North America and East Asia, the EU is moving towards longer-living, lower-fertility, and higher-educated societies. Facing this new demographic frontier naturally prompts the questions: Who will live and work in Europe in the coming decades? How many, and with what skills? To answer these, this report examines the key factors that will shape European demographics over the coming decades. By examining not only the role of migration, fertility and mortality, but also education levels and labour force participation rates, a more comprehensive view of possible futures can be outlined than the conventional demographic projections allow for. The first five sections of this report focus on demographic challenges inside the EU, such as population ageing, a shrinking labour force, more non-working people being dependent on working people, and showing the impact of high levels of emigration in some EU Member States. With these challenges in mind and with a view towards 2060, the report builds scenarios to understand the long-term effects of changes in key trends, and whether undesirable consequences can be limited or counteracted. As the EU and its demographics do not exist in isolation, the following sections explore the relevant trends for world demographics and for migration flows.JRC.A.5-Scientific Developmen