Survival analysis methods for analysis of hospitalization data: Application to COVID-19 patient hospitalization experience

During most of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic gave rise to considerable and growing numbers of hospitalizations across most of the U.S. Typical COVID-19 hospitalization data, including length of stay, intensive care unit (ICU) use, mechanical ventilation (Vent), and in-hospital mortality provide clearly interpretable health care endpoints that can be compared across population strata. They capture the resources consumed for the care of COVID-19 patients, and analysis of these endpoints can be used for resource planning at the local level. Yet, hospitalization data embody novel features that require careful statistical treatment to be useful in this context. Specifically, statistical models must meet three goals: (i) They should mesh with and inform mathematical epidemiologic or agent-based models of the COVID-19 experience in the population. (ii) They need to handle administrative censoring of hospitalization experience when data are extracted and downloaded for a given patient before that patient's hospitalization experience has terminated. And, (iii) models need to handle risks for competing events, the occurrence of one blocking the possibility of the other(s). For example, live discharge from the hospital "competes with" (i.e., blocks) in-hospital mortality. We have adapted approaches from the survival analysis literature to address these challenges in order to better understand and quantify the population experience in hospital with respect to length of stay, ICU, Vent use and so on. Using hospitalization data from a large U.S. metropolitan region, in this report, we show how standard techniques from survival analysis can be brought to bear to address these challenges and yield interpretable results. In the breakout/discussion, we will discuss formulation, estimation and inference, and interpretation of competing risks models.Dell Medical SchoolIntegrative Biolog

Reduced mouse allergen is associated with epigenetic changes in regulatory genes, but not mouse sensitization, in asthmatic children

Chronic exposure to mouse allergen may contribute greatly to the inner-city asthma burden. We hypothesized that reducing mouse allergen exposure may modulate the immunopathology underlying symptomatic pediatric allergic asthma, and that this occurs through epigenetic regulation. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort of mouse sensitized, persistent asthmatic inner-city children undergoing mouse allergen-targeted integrated pest management (IPM) vs education in a randomized controlled intervention trial. We found that decreasing mouse allergen exposure, but not cockroach, was associated with reduced FOXP3 buccal DNA promoter methylation, but this was unrelated to mouse specific IgE production. This finding suggests that the environmental epigenetic regulation of an immunomodulatory gene may occur following changing allergen exposures in some highly exposed cohorts. Given the clinical and public health importance of inner-city pediatric asthma and the potential impact of environmental interventions, further studies will be needed to corroborate changes in epigenetic regulation following changing exposures over time, and determine their impact on asthma morbidity in susceptible children

Endotypes of difficult-to-control asthma in inner-city African American children

African Americans have higher rates of asthma prevalence, morbidity, and mortality in comparison with other racial groups. We sought to characterize endotypes of childhood asthma severity in African American patients in an inner-city pediatric asthma population. Baseline blood neutrophils, blood eosinophils, and 38 serum cytokine levels were measured in a sample of 235 asthmatic children (6–17 years) enrolled in the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)-sponsored Asthma Phenotypes in the Inner City (APIC) study (ICAC (Inner City Asthma Consortium)-19). Cytokines were quantified using a MILLIPLEX panel and analyzed on a Luminex analyzer. Patients were classified as Easy-to-Control or Difficult-to-Control based on the required dose of controller medications over one year of prospective management. A multivariate variable selection procedure was used to select cytokines associated with Difficult-to-Control versus Easy-to-Control asthma, adjusting for age, sex, blood eosinophils, and blood neutrophils. In inner-city African American children, 12 cytokines were significant predictors of Difficult-to-Control asthma (n = 235). CXCL-1, IL-5, IL-8, and IL-17A were positively associated with Difficult-to-Control asthma, while IL-4 and IL-13 were positively associated with Easy-to-Control asthma. Using likelihood ratio testing, it was observed that in addition to blood eosinophils and neutrophils, serum cytokines improved the fit of the model. In an inner-city pediatric population, serum cytokines significantly contributed to the definition of Difficult-to-Control asthma endotypes in African American children. Mixed responses characterized by TH2 (IL-5) and TH17-associated cytokines were associated with Difficult-to-Control asthma. Collectively, these data may contribute to risk stratification of Difficult-to-Control asthma in the African American population

Biallelic disruption of DDX41 activity is associated with distinct genomic and immunophenotypic hallmarks in acute leukemia

IntroductionInherited DDX41 mutations cause familial predisposition to hematologic malignancies including acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), with the majority of DDX41 mutated MDS/AMLs described to date harboring germline DDX41 and co-occurring somatic DDX41 variants. DDX41-AMLs were shown to share distinguishing clinical features such as a late AML onset and an indolent disease associated with a favorable outcome. However, genotype-phenotype correlation in DDX41-MDS/AMLs remain poorly understood.MethodsHere, we studied the genetic profile, bone marrow morphology and immunophenotype of 51 patients with DDX41 mutations. We further assessed the functional impact of ten previously uncharacterized DDX41 variants of uncertain significance.ResultsOur results demonstrate that MDS/AML cases harboring two DDX41 variants share specific clinicopathologic hallmarks that are not seen in other patients with monoallelic DDX41 related hematologic malignancies. We further showed that the features seen in these individuals with two DDX41 variants were concordant with biallelic DDX41 disruption.DiscussionHere, we expand on previous clinicopathologic findings on DDX41 mutated hematologic malignancies. Functional analyses conducted in this study unraveled previously uncharacterized DDX41 alleles and further illustrate the implication of biallelic disruption in the pathophysiology of this distinct AML entity

Real-Time Monitoring of Tumorigenesis, Dissemination, & Drug Response in a Preclinical Model of Lymphangioleiomyomatosis/Tuberous Sclerosis Complex

Background: TSC2-deficient cells can proliferate in the lungs, kidneys, and other organs causing devastating progressive multisystem disorders such as lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) and tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC). Preclinical models utilizing LAM patient-derived cells have been difficult to establish. We developed a novel animal model system to study the molecular mechanisms of TSC/LAM pathogenesis and tumorigenesis and provide a platform for drug testing. Methods and Findings: TSC2-deficient human cells, derived from the angiomyolipoma of a LAM patient, were engineered to co-express both sodium-iodide symporter (NIS) and green fluorescent protein (GFP). Cells were inoculated intraparenchymally, intravenously, or intratracheally into athymic NCr nu/nu mice and cells were tracked and quantified using single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and computed tomography (CT). Surprisingly, TSC2-deficient cells administered intratracheally resulted in rapid dissemination to lymph node basins throughout the body, and histopathological changes in the lung consistent with LAM. Estrogen was found to be permissive for tumor growth and dissemination. Rapamycin inhibited tumor growth, but tumors regrew after the drug treatment was withdrawn. Conclusions: We generated homogeneous NIS/GFP co-expressing TSC2-deficient, patient-derived cells that can proliferate and migrate in vivo after intratracheal instillation. Although the animal model we describe has some limitations, we demonstrate that systemic tumors formed from TSC2-deficient cells can be monitored and quantified noninvasively over time using SPECT/CT, thus providing a much needed model system for in vivo drug testing and mechanistic studies of TSC2-deficient cells and their related clinical syndromes

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of milk oral immunotherapy for cow's milk allergy

Background Orally administered, food-specific immunotherapy appears effective in desensitizing and potentially permanently tolerizing allergic individuals. Objective We sought to determine whether milk oral immunotherapy (OIT) is safe and efficacious in desensitizing children with cow's milk allergy. Methods Twenty children were randomized to milk or placebo OIT (2:1 ratio). Dosing included 3 phases: the build-up day (initial dose, 0.4 mg of milk protein; final dose, 50 mg), daily doses with 8 weekly in-office dose increases to a maximum of 500 mg, and continued daily maintenance doses for 3 to 4 months. Double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenges; end-point titration skin prick tests; and milk protein serologic studies were performed before and after OIT. Results Nineteen patients, 6 to 17 years of age, completed treatment: 12 in the active group and 7 in the placebo group. One dropped out because of persistent eczema during dose escalation. Baseline median milk IgE levels in the active (n = 13) versus placebo (n = 7) groups were 34.8 kUa/L (range, 4.86–314 kUa/L) versus 14.6 kUa/L (range, 0.93–133.4 kUa/L). The median milk threshold dose in both groups was 40 mg at the baseline challenge. After OIT, the median cumulative dose inducing a reaction in the active treatment group was 5140 mg (range 2540-8140 mg), whereas all patients in the placebo group reacted at 40 mg (P = .0003). Among 2437 active OIT doses versus 1193 placebo doses, there were 1107 (45.4%) versus 134 (11.2%) total reactions, with local symptoms being most common. Milk-specific IgE levels did not change significantly in either group. Milk IgG levels increased significantly in the active treatment group, with a predominant milk IgG4 level increase. Conclusions Milk OIT appears to be efficacious in the treatment of cow's milk allergy. The side-effect profile appears acceptable but requires further study

The changing global distribution and prevalence of canine transmissible venereal tumour.

BACKGROUND: The canine transmissible venereal tumour (CTVT) is a contagious cancer that is naturally transmitted between dogs by the allogeneic transfer of living cancer cells during coitus. CTVT first arose several thousand years ago and has been reported in dog populations worldwide; however, its precise distribution patterns and prevalence remain unclear. RESULTS: We analysed historical literature and obtained CTVT prevalence information from 645 veterinarians and animal health workers in 109 countries in order to estimate CTVT's former and current global distribution and prevalence. This analysis confirmed that CTVT is endemic in at least 90 countries worldwide across all inhabited continents. CTVT is estimated to be present at a prevalence of one percent or more in dogs in at least 13 countries in South and Central America as well as in at least 11 countries in Africa and 8 countries in Asia. In the United States and Australia, CTVT was reported to be endemic only in remote indigenous communities. Comparison of current and historical reports of CTVT indicated that its prevalence has declined in Northern Europe, possibly due to changes in dog control laws during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Analysis of factors influencing CTVT prevalence showed that presence of free-roaming dogs was associated with increased CTVT prevalence, while dog spaying and neutering were associated with reduced CTVT prevalence. Our analysis indicated no gender bias for CTVT and we found no evidence that animals with CTVT frequently harbour concurrent infectious diseases. Vincristine was widely reported to be the most effective therapy for CTVT. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide a survey of the current global distribution of CTVT, confirming that CTVT is endemic in at least 90 countries worldwide. Additionally, our analysis highlights factors that continue to modify CTVT's prevalence around the world and implicates free-roaming dogs as a reservoir for the disease. Our analysis also documents the disappearance of the disease from the United Kingdom during the twentieth century, which appears to have been an unintentional result of the introduction of dog control policies.This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final version of this article has been published by BioMed Central: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1746-6148/10/168