Economic crises, subjective well-being, and vote switching:The case of Brazil’s 2018 presidential election

This paper examines the influence of the 2015 economic crisis on subjective well-being (SWB) and the withdrawal of support for the incumbent party during the 2018 presidential election in Brazil. Using Gallup World Poll data and a post-election national survey conducted by the Center for Studies on Public Opinion, we find that the economic crisis influenced through different channels both SWB and vote switching. Worsening personal economic circumstances explain the decline in SWB in the aftermath of the crisis, while deteriorating perceptions about the economy explain the vote switching during the presidential election in 2018. Leadership disapproval played a role in both, but to different degrees. One possible explanation for the limited effect of personal economic circumstances on voting behavior in Brazil is that those who were most severely affected by the economic downturn, specifically the poorest individuals in the country, did not see voting for Bolsonaro as a feasible or desirable choice

Economic Crises, Subjective Well-Being, and Vote Switching:The Case of Brazil’s 2018 Presidential Election

This paper examines the influence of the 2015 economic crisis on subjective well-being (SWB) and the withdrawal of support for the incumbent party during the 2018 presidential election in Brazil. Using Gallup World Poll data and a post-election national survey conducted by the Center for Studies on Public Opinion, we find that the economic crisis influenced through different channels both SWB and vote switching. Worsening personal economic circumstances explain the decline in SWB in the aftermath of the crisis, while deteriorating perceptions about the economy explain the vote switching during the presidential election in 2018. Leadership disapproval played a role in both, but to different degrees. One possible explanation for the limited effect of personal economic circumstances on voting behavior in Brazil is that those who were most severely affected by the economic downturn, specifically the poorest individuals in the country, did not see voting for Bolsonaro as a feasible or desirable choice.</p

Contribution of Water Scarcity and Sustainability Failures to Disintegration and Conflict in the Arab Region-The Case of Syria and Yemen

Economic growth and demographic change are leading factors that impact the availability of resources such as water and arable land in countries around the globe. The case of Arab countries, where both these resources have been naturally scarce, is illustrative. This chapter outlines the contribution of growing scarcity and historic negligence of sustainability of both resources in encouraging and sustaining political instability in the region. Because of failures of public policies in the area of sustainability, vulnerability to local conflicts and larger-scale instabilities and political disintegration are increasing. This chapter provides a closer look at the case of Syria and Yemen. A growing body of scientific literature now links the current Syrian conflict to climate variability, unsustainable agriculture, and consequent unemployment on the one hand and political instability on the other hand. Evidence from Yemen suggests a link between the rise of the Houthis and groundwater depletion in the North, and a link between the repatriation of Yemenis from the Gulf in the 1990s and past failures in agricultural water management. This chapter advocates the consideration of environmental factors alongside broad regional and local political, social, and economic factors in the study of current and future conflicts