Efficiency and Sensitivity Analysis of Observation Networks for Atmospheric Inverse Modelling with Emissions

The controllability of advection-diffusion systems, subject to uncertain initial values and emission rates, is estimated, given sparse and error affected observations of prognostic state variables. In predictive geophysical model systems, like atmospheric chemistry simulations, different parameter families influence the temporal evolution of the system.This renders initial-value-only optimisation by traditional data assimilation methods as insufficient. In this paper, a quantitative assessment method on validation of measurement configurations to optimize initial values and emission rates, and how to balance them, is introduced. In this theoretical approach, Kalman filter and smoother and their ensemble based versions are combined with a singular value decomposition, to evaluate the potential improvement associated with specific observational network configurations. Further, with the same singular vector analysis for the efficiency of observations, their sensitivity to model control can be identified by determining the direction and strength of maximum perturbation in a finite-time interval.Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures, 5 table

Economic institutional evolution and further needs for adjustments: Township Village Enterprises in China

Township Village Enterprises (TVEs) have essentially contributed to China's economic development and institutional transformation over the last twenty years. One of the explanations for the mechanism of TVEs' growth is the co-operative culture theory which claims that Chinese - compared with other nationalities - could better resolve free riding problems and work more efficiently under collective TVEs. In this paper, based on official documents, statistical data and results from important surveys, we analyze the historic development of property rights in TVEs. We have proved that the evolution of TVEs' property rights depended on the interaction between peasants and policy makers. In this interaction process peasants showed strong pursuit of private ownership and policy makers reacted with delay towards owner interests. Owing to the delay of political adjustments, peasants had to adopt various ownership forms for their enterprises - joint households, collective and shareholding cooperative - in order to struggle against a discriminating environment for private ownership. This institutional evolution is not a proof for the co-operative culture theory, but instead for the conventional theory of property rights because the long struggle of the peasants finally led to one clearly defined form of ownership private property rights. We have tested our hypothesis in view of the following process: In the collective economy under the commune system, policy-makers changed the size of owner units of TVEs from big (commune) to small (production brigade or production group) and back in accordance with the importance of TVEs to the national economy. In the individual economy after the reform of land use rights, the property rights of TVEs were forced to change step by step to private property rights under the pressure of farm households striving for private ownership. The peasants instrumentalized the various vaguely defined property rights in order to avoid political risks. Due to the principal agent problem, the collective-owned TVEs went down despite political and financial support. The financial viability of private TVEs however grew in spite of their competition with collective-owned TVEs and severe political and financial discrimination. With the evolution of property rights in TVEs, at present private enterprises dominate the non farm sector in China's rural areas. These structural changes require adjustments of China's financial policy: Formerly, formal financial institutions directed their support mainly towards collective enterprises, whereas private TVEs depended on informal capital sources. In order to meet private TVEs' financial demands, the rural financial market which officially is still dominated by formal financial institutions should be replaced with a financial market consisting of legally recognized multiform-intermediaries

Singular vector-based targeted observations of chemical constituents: description and first application of the EURAD-IM-SVA v1.0

Measurements of the large-dimensional chemical state of the atmosphere provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their typically insufficient temporal and spatial density. In order to optimize the measurement configurations despite those limitations, the present work describes the identification of sensitive states of the chemical system as optimal target areas for adaptive observations. For this purpose, the technique of singular vector analysis (SVA), which has proven effective for targeted observations in numerical weather prediction, is implemented in the EURAD-IM (EURopean Air pollution and Dispersion – Inverse Model) chemical transport model, yielding the EURAD-IM-SVA v1.0. Besides initial values, emissions are investigated as critical simulation controlling targeting variables. For both variants, singular vectors are applied to determine the optimal placement for observations and moreover to quantify which chemical compounds have to be observed with preference. Based on measurements of the airship based ZEPTER-2 campaign, the EURAD-IM-SVA v1.0 has been evaluated by conducting a comprehensive set of model runs involving different initial states and simulation lengths. For the sake of brevity, we concentrate our attention on the following chemical compounds, O3, NO, NO2, HCHO, CO, HONO, and OH, and focus on their influence on selected O3 profiles. Our analysis shows that the optimal placement for observations of chemical species is not entirely determined by mere transport and mixing processes. Rather, a combination of initial chemical concentrations, chemical conversions, and meteorological processes determines the influence of chemical compounds and regions. We furthermore demonstrate that the optimal placement of observations of emission strengths is highly dependent on the location of emission sources and that the benefit of including emissions as target variables outperforms the value of initial value optimization with growing simulation length. The obtained results confirm the benefit of considering both initial values and emission strengths as target variables and of applying the EURAD-IM-SVA v1.0 for measurement decision guidance with respect to chemical compounds

Emission rate and chemical state estimation by 4-dimensional variational inversion

This study aims to assess the potential and limits of an advanced inversion method to estimate pollutant precursor sources mainly from observations. Ozone, sulphur dioxide, and partly nitrogen oxides observations are taken to infer source strength estimates. As methodology, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique has been generalised and employed to include emission rate optimisation, in addition to chemical state estimates as usual objective of data assimilation. To this end, the optimisation space of the variational assimilation system has been complemented by emission rate correction factors of 19 emitted species at each emitting grid point, involving the University of Cologne mesoscale EURAD model. For validation, predictive skills were assessed for an August 1997 ozone episode, comparing forecast performances of pure initial value optimisation, pure emission rate optimisation, and joint emission rate/initial value optimisation. <br><br> Validation procedures rest on both measurements withheld from data assimilation and prediction skill evaluation of forecasts after the inversion procedures. Results show that excellent improvements can be claimed for sulphur dioxide forecasts, after emission rate optimisation. Significant improvements can be claimed for ozone forecasts after initial value and joint emission rate/initial value optimisation of precursor constituents. The additional benefits applying joint emission rate/initial value optimisation are moderate, and very useful in typical cases, where upwind emission rate optimisation is essential. In consequence of the coarse horizontal model grid resolution of 54 km, applied in this study, comparisons indicate that the inversion improvements can rest on assimilating ozone observations only, as the inclusion of NO<sub>x</sub> observations does not provide additional forecast skill. Emission estimates were found to be largely independent from initial guesses from emission inventories, demonstrating the potential of the 4D-var method to infer emission rate improvements. The study also points to the need for improved horizontal model resolution to more efficient use of NO<sub>x</sub> observations

Using Geographically Referenced Data on Environmental Exposures for Public Health Research: A Feasibility Study Based on the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP)

Background: In panel datasets information on environmental exposures is scarce. Thus, our goal was to probe the use of area-wide geographically referenced data for air pollution from an external data source in the analysis of physical health. Methods: The study population comprised SOEP respondents in 2004 merged with exposures for NO2, PM10 and O3 based on a multi-year reanalysis of the EURopean Air pollution Dispersion-Inverse Model (EURAD-IM). Apart from bivariate analyses with subjective air pollution we estimated cross-sectional multilevel regression models for physical health as assessed by the SF-12. Results: The variation of average exposure to NO2, PM10 and O3 was small with the interquartile range being less than 10µg/m3 for all pollutants. There was no correlation between subjective air pollution and average exposure to PM10 and O3, while there was a very small positive correlation between the first and NO2. Inclusion of objective air pollution in regression models did not improve the model fit. Conclusions: It is feasible to merge environmental exposures to a nationally representative panel study like the SOEP. However, in our study the spatial resolution of the specific air pollutants has been too little, yet.SOEP, Geographically Referenced Data, Feasibility Study, Air Pollution, EURAD-IM, Physical Health

Understanding the aerosol information content in multi-spectral reflectance measurements using a synergetic retrieval algorithm

An information content analysis for multi-wavelength SYNergetic AErosol Retrieval algorithm SYNAER was performed to quantify the number of independent pieces of information that can be retrieved. In particular, the capability of SYNAER to discern various aerosol types is assessed. This information content depends on the aerosol optical depth, the surface albedo spectrum and the observation geometry. The theoretical analysis is performed for a large number of scenarios with various geometries and surface albedo spectra for ocean, soil and vegetation. When the surface albedo spectrum and its accuracy is known under cloud-free conditions, reflectance measurements used in SYNAER is able to provide for 2–4° of freedom that can be attributed to retrieval parameters: aerosol optical depth, aerosol type and surface albedo. <br><br> The focus of this work is placed on an information content analysis with emphasis to the aerosol type classification. This analysis is applied to synthetic reflectance measurements for 40 predefined aerosol mixtures of different basic components, given by sea salt, mineral dust, biomass burning and diesel aerosols, water soluble and water insoluble aerosols. The range of aerosol parameters considered through the 40 mixtures covers the natural variability of tropospheric aerosols. After the information content analysis performed in Holzer-Popp et al. (2008) there was a necessity to compare derived degrees of freedom with retrieved aerosol optical depth for different aerosol types, which is the main focus of this paper. <br><br> The principle component analysis was used to determine the correspondence between degrees of freedom for signal in the retrieval and derived aerosol types. The main results of the analysis indicate correspondence between the major groups of the aerosol types, which are: water soluble aerosol, soot, mineral dust and sea salt and degrees of freedom in the algorithm and show the ability of the SYNAER to discern between this aerosol types. <br><br> The results of the work will be further used for the development of the promising methodology of the construction error covariance matrices in the assimilation system

Capitalizing on Market Reforms: Facets of Legal Development in Contemporary China

A review of: Law and Justice in China’s New Marketplace by Ronald C. Keith and Zhiqiu Lin. New York: Palgrave, 2001. 315pp. and Profits and Principles: Global Capitalism and Human Rights in China by Michael A. Santoro. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2000. 256pp