Come Hail or High Water : Exchanging insurance and drought knowledge to advance research and its application

Canada First Research Excellence FundNon-Peer ReviewedPersonal account of a climate scientist's interactions with knowledge users looking at extreme weather in the Canadian West

Summary Document

This summary is based on the following larger document: Sauchyn, Dave; Barrow, Elaine; Fang, X; Henderson, Norm; Johnston, Mark; Pomeroy, John; Thorpe, Jeff; Wheaton, Elaine; Williams, B. 2009. Saskatchewan’s Natural Capital in a Changing Climate: An Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation, PARC, Regina, 162pp. The full report is viewable on the PARC website at www.parc.caSummary edited by Dave Sauchyn and Norm Henderson.PARC acknowledges the funding support of Saskatchewan Environment.Non-Peer ReviewedClimate change impacts in Saskatchewan are already evident and will become increasing significant over time. This report draws on the expertise of top climate change researchers and a large body of previous work to create a state-of-knowledge synthesis of key biophysical impacts and adaptation options specific to Saskatchewan. The focus is Saskatchewan’s ecosystems and water resources and the sectors of our economy, agriculture, and forestry, which are most dependent on these natural resources. The purpose of this report is to 1) document the expected impacts of climate change on Saskatchewan’s natural resources and dependent industries, and 2) outline options for adaptation of resource management practices, policies and infrastructure to minimize the risks associated with the impacts of climate change and to take advantage of opportunities provided by a warming climate

Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review

As the climate changes, the effects of agriculture on the environment may change. In the future, an increasing frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, and excess moisture, is expected. Past research on the interaction between environment and resources has focused on climate change effects on various sectors, including agricultural production (especially crop production), but research on the effects of climate change using agri-environmental indicators (AEI) of environmental sustainability of agriculture is limited. The aim of this paper was to begin to address this knowledge gap by exploring the effects of future drought and excess moisture on environmental sustainability of agriculture. Methods included the use of a conceptual framework, literature reviews, and an examination of the climate sensitivities of the AEI models. The AEIs assessed were those for the themes of soil and water quality, and farmland management as developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Additional indicators included one for desertification and another for water supply and demand. The study area was the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. We found that the performance of several indicators would likely decrease in a warming climate with more extremes. These indicators with declining performances included risks for soil erosion, soil salinization, desertification, water quality and quantity, and soil contamination. Preliminary trends of other indicators such as farmland management were not clear. AEIs are important tools for measuring climate impacts on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. They also indicate the success of adaptation measures and suggest areas of operational and policy development. Therefore, continued reporting and enhancement of these indicators is recommended

The evaluation of the climatic environment of a large area with few reporting stations: a case study of Northern Saskatchewan

The evaluation of the climate of a large area with few reporting stations requires a special approach. Northern Saskatchewan, examined in this study, is an example of such an area. The objectives of this study, therefore, are to determine how to evaluate the climatic environment of a large area with few reporting stations and to apply the methods to an analysis of the climate of northern Saskatchewan. A completeness index, developed by the author, was used to measure how satisfactory the climatological records were in terms of length and number of gaps. A correlation analysis, the point distribution coefficient and the spatial pattern of the completeness index were employed for the evaluation of the network of observing stations. Methods for temporal and spatial estimation were applied and the results were tested. It was found that monthly data and normals could be estimated satisfactorily but that daily data could not be as adequately estimated. The results of the spatial estimation were found to be acceptable, although estimated precipitation values were usually less acceptable than estimated temperature values. The improved data base was then used to evaluate the temperature and precipitation climate of northern Saskatchewan. Several intriguing features were disclosed. For example, it was found that stations in the central portion of the study area have January extreme minima that are as much as 6° C. higher than those of the stations of the southern margin of the study area. The frequency of occurrence of mean monthly temperatures proved useful in both temporal and spatial analyses. Cold and warm spells, that is, periods of consecutive days with temperatures below or above certain levels, respectively, were also examined. A noticeable pattern in the distribution of cold spells was found. The distribution shows an abrupt increase in the average number of cold spells per winter north of about 57° North. Other aspects of the climate of northern Saskatchewan such as the frost-free season, growing degree-days, heating degree-days, wind chill and humidex were evaluated, where possible. It was found that wind chill factors at locations in the study area are less than those at Regina, the comparison station in southern Saskatchewan. The length of the frost-free season was found to be just as long in parts of the northern margin as in the southern margin of the study area. Climatic classifications and the continentality of the study area were also examined

Compound Extremes of Droughts and Pluvials: A Review and Exploration of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Associated Risks in the Canadian Prairies

The Canadian Prairies are associated with high natural hydroclimatic variability including the frequent periodic occurrence of droughts and pluvials. These extremes carry various risks including significant damage to the economy, environment and society. The well-documented level of damage necessitates further risk assessment and planned reductions to vulnerability, particularly in light of a warming climate. A logical starting point involves awareness and information about the changing characteristics of such climate extremes. We focus on the compound occurrence of droughts and pluvials as the risks from this type of event are magnified compared to the hydroclimatic extremes in isolation. Compound droughts and pluvials (CDP) are drought and pluvial events that occur in close succession in time or in close proximity in area. Also, research on CDP is limited even for the worldwide literature. Therefore, the purposes of this paper are to synthesize recent literature concerning the risks of CDP, and to provide examples of past occurrences, with a focus on the Canadian Prairies. Since literature from the Prairies is limited, global work is also reviewed. That literature indicates increasing concern and interest in CDP. Relationships between drought and pluvials are also characterized using the SPEI Global Monitor for the Prairies, emphasizing the recent past. Research mostly considers drought and pluvials as separate events in the Prairies, but is integrated here to characterize the relationships of these extremes. The spatiotemporal patterns showed that several of the extreme to record pluvials were found to be closely associated with extreme droughts in the Prairies. The intensities of the extremes and their dry to wet boundaries were described. This is the first research to explore the concept of and to provide examples of CDP for the Prairies and for Canada. Examples of CDP provide insights into the regional hydroclimatic variability. Furthermore, most literature on future projections strongly suggests that this variability is likely to increase, mainly driven by anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, improved methods to characterize and to quantify CDP are required. These findings suggest means of decreasing vulnerability and associated damages. Although the study area is the Canadian Prairies, the work is relevant to other regions that are becoming more vulnerable to increasing risks of and vulnerabilities to such compound extremes

Canadian prairie rural communities: their vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities to drought

Adaptive capacity, Canada, Community, Drought, Impacts, Vulnerability,