Explaining the behaviour of small states: an analysis of Jordan’s nuclear energy policy

Conventional analyses claim that small states bandwagon with leading international powers. The dominant view is that small states' vulnerabilities and limited power hinders their ability to pursue policy goals. This study critiques this position by investigating why and how Jordan continues to pursue a nuclear energy programme despite objections from the United States – its principle ally. By using theories of small states, this study analyses discursive practices in Jordanian policy-making. This approach is used to describe Jordan's nuclear energy policy and posit a logic of the effects that energy insecurity has on the government's perception of Jordan as a 'small state'. I use this to create hypotheses concerning the conditions under which small states may not simply bandwagon with key international allies, but may have more freedom to pursue their goals than traditional analyses predict. Explanations that assume small states always have limited freedom to pursue policy goals without the backing of key allies are not supported by the evidence considered here

Interests, trust and security in US-Jordanian nuclear relations

This article explores the relationship between Jordan and the United States (US) in the field of nuclear energy cooperation. Since 2010 the Jordanian government has accelerated its plans for a nuclear energy program and has engaged with multiple partners around the world in order to agree terms for cooperation in technology exchange, monitoring, and the construction of infrastructure. Bilateral negotiations between the US and Jordan for a "123" nuclear cooperation agreement were underway by early 2008, but were suspended in 2011 without an agreement being reached. Jordanian nuclear energy policy has been spurred by energy security considerations (as it currently imports 97 percent of its energy needs) and the discovery of up to 120,000 tonnes of uranium ore in Jordan. At the same time, the US is primarily interested in management of nuclear technology proliferation. This work considers the perceptions of self and other in Jordanian and US policymaking in order to understand why bilateral cooperation has not materialized and what this means for nuclear proliferation in Jordan. This study finds that the US–Jordanian negotiations have been impeded by contradictory objectives and perceptions, and a "123" agreement is not likely in the short to medium term, but that development of Jordan’s nuclear energy program will likely continue regardless

Economic integration and security in the Middle East and North Africa: what prospects for a liberal peace?

Since the late 1980s governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have created commercial institutions in order to promote regional economic integration. The primary aim of this policy has been regarded as the promotion of economic welfare gains at the national level. A second, albeit less-emphasized goal, has been to promote regional peace through economic interdependence. This study examines the prospects for a liberal peace in the MENA by analyzing two stages of the commercial institutional peace. Firstly, the study considers whether commercial institutions have promoted intra-regional trade in the MENA. Secondly, it examines if economic interaction has had an impact on promoting peace within the region. Twenty states are considered here and the unit of analysis is the dyad-year over a 25-year period from 1990-2014. This study finds that commercial institutions in the MENA have only a limited positive correlation with trade volume and while there is a direct positive correlation between economic integration and peace in the region, this is quite limited. These findings suggest that the conclusions made by previous studies that demonstrate a direct positive correlation between commercial institutions (and economic integration more generally) and peace, may be less applicable to some regions such as MENA

The Political Economy of Energy Security and Nuclear Energy in Jordan

In 2007 the Jordanian government announced its intention to build one nuclear power plant by 2015 and a number of others by 2030. The objective of this nuclear energy programme was to provide a sustainable domestic energy supply and relieve the burden of reliance on external energy sources. This burden has led to a massive strain on the government budget as well as domestic discontent, due to rising living costs which has negatively affected regime stability - this latter point is especially important in light of the current geopolitical changes sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This work explores the political economy of energy security in Jordan and the potential role of nuclear energy in the coming decades and argues that there is an energy security dilemma in Jordan and this determines the nature of nuclear technology proliferation there. In this study a number of theoretical assumptions are posited concerning the impact of resource scarcity on economic and political stability which help shed light on Jordanian interests and policies. The nature of energy security and resource scarcity in other states in the MENA are often very similar. As such this case study offers some insights into the political economy of other nuclear energy programmes which have been announced in the past few years in that region, such as in Yemen and Egypt