Freshwater scarcity, interdependence and institutionalism in Jordanian foreign policy: towards conflict or cooperation?

Freshwater scarcity is an increasingly important aspect of the international relations of the Middle East and North Africa, and is magnified when sources are shared between states. In the Jordanian, Israeli and Syrian cases, most of their freshwater sources are shared. At the same time, cooperation between these states has emerged. This paper examines inter-state cooperation by considering freshwater scarcity issues in Jordanian-Israeli-Syrian relations. This study argues that three factors help determine whether freshwater scarcity leads to conflict or cooperation between riparian states: the nature and intensity of the scarcity, the level of interdependence between the actors sharing this resource, and their level of engagement in international institutions. It concludes that cooperation is possible between states (even those with difficulties in other areas of their relationship) when the scarcity experienced is intense, they are interdependent in this and other spheres, and they engage with each other through international institutions

A review of trade liberalisation and trade between Jordan and the United States

Promoting trade is a key aspect of Jordan’s development policy. As a developing country, increasing exports and maintaining a healthy balance of trade with its trading partners are amongst the government’s most important goals. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed with the United States in 2000 is a cornerstone of Jordan’s foreign economic policy and a key test case for its broader policy of trade liberalisation. Yet while there is some evidence for a positive relationship between trade liberalisation, and increased bilateral trade and economic growth, this approach to development is also criticised for opening up developing markets to competition from their more advanced counterparts. This investigation argues that FTAs do facilitate bilateral trade but that states with large and advanced economies benefit more than small developing states and markets. To explore this argument, this study examines overall levels of bilateral trade between Jordan and the United States before and after the JUSFTA came into effect. Linear trendline projections are used to offer a comparison between experienced levels of trade and projected potential levels of trade based on pre-JUSFTA era data

From spring to summer? Revolutionary change in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya

This article offers an analysis of the early stages of the revolutions that have been taking place in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Here we consider the early stages of the revolutions from winter 2010-11 up until the summer of 2012 and offers a comparative study of the experiences of the early stage of the revolutions in each case study. In particular this study considers the roles of six variables on the process of regime change and transition as follows: 1) duration of the uprising up to regime change; 2) the initial outcome of the revolution/uprising; 3) the number of deaths and casualties; 4) the post-regime change status of key members of the former governing elite; 5) the existence and nature of post-regime change elections; and 6) levels of international involvement. This study finds that in all three case studies, considering these variables offers insight into the nature and effect of the early stages of the revolutions. Furthermore, in each case there are key similarities in some of these variables but significant differences in others which suggest that the processes of transition are not directly comparable with each other. This article also offers some thoughts on how the early stages of these revolutions could affect the direction and pace of change in each state

Libya after the civil war: regime change and democratisation

This article examines changes in Libya’s internal security, politics, economy and international relations since the start of the revolution in February 2011. Our main argument is that in order to transition from authoritarianism to democracy significant change in each of these four, mutually reinforcing, areas is needed. Drawing on data collected through media analysis and field work, we offer a discussion of the nature of change in Libya and how far the country has democratised. We claim that significant changes in Libya’s political system and foreign relations have taken place since 2011 that reinforce the process of democratisation. Within the political system these changes include the conduct of free and fair elections, the formation of new political parties, the reinforcement of civil rights and liberties, governmental accountability and the emergence of a participant political culture. Within foreign relations they include deeper cooperation with regional and international actors, reintegration into the Arab League, and rapprochement with Western states. However, we also observe that structural economic changes, in particular raising personal incomes and lowering poverty, and the normalisation of security provision are moving forward more slowly. We conclude that democratisation in Libya is taking place and there is a solid possibility that embedded democracy will emerge in Libya in the medium to long-term

Freshwater security, conflict and cooperation: the case of the Red Sea-Dead Sea conduit project

This study examines the challenge of freshwater security faced by Israel, Jordan and Palestine, and mechanisms for multilateral collaboration that have been developed in order to create a Red Sea-Dead Sea Conduit. This paper outlines the proposed conduit as a major collaborative project which hinges on the engagement of both state and non-state stakeholders. The argument presented here is that the feasibility and planning process has so far been successful and that the mechanisms for collaboration developed as part of this project are the reason why. Overall conclusions suggest that the importance of freshwater security and the agency of international state and non-state actors are largely responsible for these collaborative successes

(Dis)integration and the emergence of the state system in the Middle East

The fall of the Ottoman Empire during World War One and the emergence of the modern state system in the Middle East have received significant attention in academic literature. However, the impacts that the proliferation of state borders in the 19th and 20th centuries have had on political and economic integration within the Middle East is often ignored. This study argues that between the mid-19th and mid-20th centuries the region underwent significant structural changes. Furthermore, these changes were driven by external intervention and internal decline. A number of theoretical assumptions are posited concerning the importance on integration and cooperation of the following: the increase in borders and claims to sovereignty and the separation of peoples/markets. The conclusions drawn are that the change from a system characterised by large political actors and integrated markets to one which is characterised by smaller states and separated markets led to the disintegration of the region's internal relations

The political economy of energy security and nuclear energy in Jordan

In 2007 the Jordanian government announced its intention to build one nuclear power plant by 2015 and a number of others by 2030. The objective of this nuclear energy programme was to provide a sustainable domestic energy supply and relieve the burden of reliance on external energy sources. This burden has led to a massive strain on the government budget and produced domestic discontent, due to rising living costs which has negatively affected regime stability - this latter point is especially important in light of the current geopolitical changes sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This work explores the political economy of energy security in Jordan and the potential role of nuclear energy in the coming decades and argues that there is an energy security dilemma in Jordan and this determines the nature of nuclear technology proliferation there. In this study a number of theoretical assumptions are posited concerning the impact of resource scarcity on economic and political stability which help shed light on Jordanian interests and policies. The nature of energy security and resource scarcity in other states in the MENA are often very similar. As such this case study offers some insights into the political economy of other nuclear energy programmes which have been announced in the past few years in that region, such as in Yemen and Egypt

The political economy of Turkey’s integration into the MENA economy

The early post-Cold War era saw Turkish interest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – a region in which the Ottoman Empire, as the predecessor to the modern Turkish Republic, had played a pivotal role. Through the 1990s and early 2000s, Turkey’s political, economic and socio-cultural links to the MENA rapidly expanded. Turkey has 'rediscovered’ the region and now plays a highly significant role in the region’s political and economic affairs. A body of literature has emerged that explores the emergence of these expanding ties and the policy interests driving them. It is important to deepen our understanding of the ways in which Turkey has not only reengaged with the MENA but has more fully integrated with it. Turkey has become a more central component of the regional system than at any time in since World War One. This chapter explores this new reality by analysing the political economy of Turkey’s economic relations with key MENA partners