LYMESIM 2.0: An Updated Simulation of Blacklegged Tick (Acari: Ixodidae) Population Dynamics and Enzootic Transmission of \u3ci\u3eBorrelia burgdorferi\u3c/i\u3e (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae)

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in the United States, and the number of cases reported each year continues to rise. The complex nature of the relationships between the pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto), the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis Say), multiple vertebrate hosts, and numerous environmental factors creates challenges for understanding and predicting tick population and pathogen transmission dynamics. LYMESIM is a mechanistic model developed in the late 1990s to simulate the life-history of I. scapularis and transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.s. Here we present LYMESIM 2.0, a modernized version of LYMESIM, that includes several modifications to enhance the biological realism of the model and to generate outcomes that are more readily measured under field conditions. The model is tested for three geographically distinct locations in New York, Minnesota, and Virginia. Model-simulated timing and densities of questing nymphs, infected nymphs, and abundances of nymphs feeding on hosts are consistent with field observations and reports for these locations. Sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of temperature in host finding for the density of nymphs, the importance of transmission from small mammals to ticks on the density of infected nymphs, and temperature-related tick survival for both density of nymphs and infected nymphs. A key challenge for accurate modeling of these metrics is the need for regionally representative inputs for host populations and their fluctuations. LYMESIM 2.0 is a useful public health tool that downstream can be used to evaluate tick control interventions and can be adapted for other ticks and pathogens

Need for Improved Methods to Collect and Present Spatial Epidemiologic Data for Vectorborne Diseases

These methods will improve capability for development of spatial risk models for vectorborne diseases in the United States

Modeling the Geographic Distribution of \u3ci\u3eIxodes scapularis\u3c/i\u3e and \u3ci\u3eIxodes pacificus\u3c/i\u3e (Acari: Ixodidae) in the Contiguous United States

In addition to serving as vectors of several other human pathogens, the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, and western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, are the primary vectors of the spirochete (Borrelia burgdorferi) that causes Lyme disease, the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Over the past two decades, the geographic range of I. pacificus has changed modestly while, in contrast, the I. scapularis range has expanded substantially, which likely contributes to the concurrent expansion in the distribution of human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern, North-Central and Mid-Atlantic states. Identifying counties that contain suitable habitat for these ticks that have not yet reported established vector populations can aid in targeting limited vector surveillance resources to areas where tick invasion and potential human risk are likely to occur. We used county-level vector distribution information and ensemble modeling to map the potential distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in the contiguous United States as a function of climate, elevation, and forest cover. Results show that I. pacificus is currently present within much of the range classified by our model as suitable for establishment. In contrast, environmental conditions are suitable for I. scapularis to continue expanding its range into northwestern Minnesota, central and northern Michigan, within the Ohio River Valley, and inland from the southeastern and Gulf coasts. Overall, our ensemble models show suitable habitat for I. scapularis in 441 eastern counties and for I. pacificus in 11 western counties where surveillance records have not yet supported classification of the counties as established

“I Think He Had A Tattoo On His Neck”: How Co-Witness Discussions About A Perpetrator’s Description Can Affect Eyewitness Identification Decisions.

This experiment was designed to examine the effect of misinformation imparted through co-witness discussions on memory reports and line-up decisions obtained after varied retention intervals. Two-hundred and eighty-nine participants viewed a simulated car-jacking and then heard co-witnesses describe their memory for the event. Confederate accounts included three plausible and three implausible pieces of misinformation. Memory for the event was assessed after five-minutes, 50-minutes, two-days, or one-week. In addition to examining free-recall memory, we also looked at how misinformation about the perpetrator’s appearance affected recognition memory by obtaining identifications from culprit-present and absent lineups. One of the confederates falsely described the perpetrator having a tattoo on his neck, and one lineup filler had this feature. Results revealed that mistaken identifications of the tattooed filler increased significantly at the longer retention intervals, while recall for the misinformation decreased at the longer intervals. Also, as expected, plausible misinformation was recalled more often than implausible

Multiple Francisella tularensis Subspecies and Clades, Tularemia Outbreak, Utah

In July 2007, a deer fly–associated outbreak of tularemia occurred in Utah. Human infections were caused by 2 clades (A1 and A2) of Francisella tularensis subsp. tularensis. Lagomorph carcasses from the area yielded evidence of infection with A1 and A2, as well as F. tularensis subsp. holarctica. These findings indicate that multiple subspecies and clades can cause disease in a localized outbreak of tularemia

Landscape and Residential Variables Associated with Plague-Endemic Villages in the West Nile Region of Uganda

Plague, caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis , is a severe, often fatal disease. This study focuses on the plagueendemic West Nile region of Uganda, where limited information is available regarding environmental and behavioral risk factors associated with plague infection. We conducted observational surveys of 10 randomly selected huts within historically classified case and control villages (four each) two times during the dry season of 2006 ( N = 78 case huts and N = 80 control huts), which immediately preceded a large plague outbreak. By coupling a previously published landscape-level statistical model of plague risk with this observational survey, we were able to identify potential residence-based risk factors for plague associated with huts within historic case or control villages (e.g., distance to neighboring homestead and presence of pigs near the home) and huts within areas previously predicted as elevated risk or low risk (e.g., corn and other annual crops grown near the home, water storage in the home, and processed commercial foods stored in the home). The identified variables are consistent with current ecologic theories on plague transmission dynamics. This preliminary study serves as a foundation for future case control studies in the area

Transmission Shifts Underlie Variability in Population Responses to Yersinia pestis Infection

Host populations for the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, are highly variable in their response to plague ranging from near deterministic extinction (i.e., epizootic dynamics) to a low probability of extinction despite persistent infection (i.e., enzootic dynamics). Much of the work to understand this variability has focused on specific host characteristics, such as population size and resistance, and their role in determining plague dynamics. Here, however, we advance the idea that the relative importance of alternative transmission routes may vary causing shifts from epizootic to enzootic dynamics. We present a model that incorporates host and flea ecology with multiple transmission hypotheses to study how transmission shifts determine population responses to plague. Our results suggest enzootic persistence relies on infection of an off-host flea reservoir and epizootics rely on transiently maintained flea infection loads through repeated infectious feeds by fleas. In either case, early-phase transmission by fleas (i.e., transmission immediately following an infected blood meal) has been observed in laboratory studies, and we show that it is capable of driving plague dynamics at the population level. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters revealed that host characteristics (e.g., population size and resistance) vary in importance depending on transmission dynamics, suggesting that host ecology may scale differently through different transmission routes enabling prediction of population responses in a more robust way than using either host characteristics or transmission shifts alone

Persistence of Yersinia pestis in Soil Under Natural Conditions

As part of a fatal human plague case investigation, we showed that the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, can survive for at least 24 days in contaminated soil under natural conditions. These results have implications for defining plague foci, persistence, transmission, and bioremediation after a natural or intentional exposure to Y. pestis