Precision matrix expansion - efficient use of numerical simulations in estimating errors on cosmological parameters

Computing the inverse covariance matrix (or precision matrix) of large data vectors is crucial in weak lensing (and multi-probe) analyses of the large scale structure of the universe. Analytically computed covariances are noise-free and hence straightforward to invert, however the model approximations might be insufficient for the statistical precision of future cosmological data. Estimating covariances from numerical simulations improves on these approximations, but the sample covariance estimator is inherently noisy, which introduces uncertainties in the error bars on cosmological parameters and also additional scatter in their best fit values. For future surveys, reducing both effects to an acceptable level requires an unfeasibly large number of simulations. In this paper we describe a way to expand the true precision matrix around a covariance model and show how to estimate the leading order terms of this expansion from simulations. This is especially powerful if the covariance matrix is the sum of two contributions, $\smash{\mathbf{C} = \mathbf{A}+\mathbf{B}}$, where $\smash{\mathbf{A}}$ is well understood analytically and can be turned off in simulations (e.g. shape-noise for cosmic shear) to yield a direct estimate of $\smash{\mathbf{B}}$. We test our method in mock experiments resembling tomographic weak lensing data vectors from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telecope (LSST). For DES we find that $400$ N-body simulations are sufficient to achive negligible statistical uncertainties on parameter constraints. For LSST this is achieved with $2400$ simulations. The standard covariance estimator would require >$10^5$ simulations to reach a similar precision. We extend our analysis to a DES multi-probe case finding a similar performance.Comment: 14 pages, submitted to mnra

Testing dark energy paradigms with weak gravitational lensing

Any theory invoked to explain cosmic acceleration predicts consistency relations between the expansion history, structure growth, and all related observables. Currently there exist high-quality measurements of the expansion history from Type Ia supernovae, the cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization spectra, and baryon acoustic oscillations. We can use constraints from these datasets to predict what future probes of structure growth should observe. We apply this method to predict what range of cosmic shear power spectra would be expected if we lived in a LambdaCDM universe, with or without spatial curvature, and what results would be inconsistent and therefore falsify the model. Though predictions are relaxed if one allows for an arbitrary quintessence equation of state $-1\le w(z)\le 1$, we find that any observation that rules out LambdaCDM due to excess lensing will also rule out all quintessence models, with or without early dark energy. We further explore how uncertainties in the nonlinear matter power spectrum, e.g. from approximate fitting formulas such as Halofit, warm dark matter, or baryons, impact these limits.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, submitted to PR

Core or Cusps: The Central Dark Matter Profile of a Strong Lensing Cluster with a Bright Central Image at Redshift 1

We report on SPT-CLJ2011-5228, a giant system of arcs created by a cluster at z = 1.06. The arc system is notable for the presence of a bright central image. The source is a Lyman break galaxy at z_s= 2.39 and the mass enclosed within the Einstein ring of radius 14 arcsec is ~10^(14.2) M⊙. We perform a full reconstruction of the light profile of the lensed images to precisely infer the parameters of the mass distribution. The brightness of the central image demands that the central total density profile of the lens be shallow. By fitting the dark matter as a generalized Navarro–Frenk–White profile—with a free parameter for the inner density slope—we find that the break radius is 270^(+48)_(-76) kpc, and that the inner density falls with radius to the power −0.38 ± 0.04 at 68% confidence. Such a shallow profile is in strong tension with our understanding of relaxed cold dark matter halos; dark matter-only simulations predict that the inner density should fall as r^(-1). The tension can be alleviated if this cluster is in fact a merger; a two-halo model can also reconstruct the data, with both clumps (density varying as r^(-0.8) and r^(-1.0)) much more consistent with predictions from dark matter-only simulations. At the resolution of our Dark Energy Survey imaging, we are unable to choose between these two models, but we make predictions for forthcoming Hubble Space Telescope imaging that will decisively distinguish between them

Non-Gaussianity in the Weak Lensing Correlation Function Likelihood -- Implications for Cosmological Parameter Biases

We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in one-dimensional marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in one-dimensional posteriors of $\Omega_{\rm m}$ and $\sigma_{\rm 8}$ due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear correlations functions using the mock data ($100$ deg$^{2}$). We also present a systematic approach to constructing approximate multivariate likelihoods with one-dimensional parametric functions by assuming independence or more flexible non-parametric multivariate methods after decorrelating the data points using principal component analysis (PCA). While the use of PCA does not modify the non-Gaussianity of the multivariate likelihood, we find empirically that the one-dimensional marginal sampling distributions of the PCA components exhibit less skewness and kurtosis than the original shear correlation functions.Modeling the likelihood with marginal parametric functions based on the assumption of independence between PCA components thus gives a lower limit for the biases. We further demonstrate that the difference in cosmological parameter constraints between the multivariate Gaussian likelihood model and more complex non-Gaussian likelihood models would be even smaller for an LSST-like survey. In addition, the PCA approach automatically serves as a data compression method, enabling the retention of the majority of the cosmological information while reducing the dimensionality of the data vector by a factor of $\sim$5.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, published MNRA