The link between money and prices in an open economy: the Canadian evidence from 1971 to 1980

Monetary theory ; Prices ; Inflation (Finance) ; Canada

Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?

There is surprisingly little empirical research on whether Balassa-Samuelson effects can explain the long-run behavior of real exchange rates in developing countries. This paper presents new evidence on this issue based on a panel-data sample of 16 developing countries. The paper finds that the traded-nontraded productivity differential is a significant determinant of the relative price of nontraded goods, and the relative price in turn exerts a significant effect on the real exchange rate. The terms of trade also influence the real exchange rate. These results provide strong verification of Balassa-Samuelson effects for developing countries. Copyright 2005, International Monetary Fund

The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is Rupee Devaluation In Inflationary?

This paper challenges the popular view that devaluation of the rupee is inflationary. Recent developments in the theoretical literature are reviewed to explain why consumer prices would be unresponsive to exchange rate changes in the short run. Then empirical tests are conducted for Pakistan during the period 1982 to 2001 to examine whether inflation is systematically related to changes in the exchange rate. The empirical analysis finds no association between rupee devaluations and inflation in Pakistan. It appears, therefore, that concerns about the inflationary consequences of rupee devaluation are unsupported by the facts

Money Stock Targeting, Base Drift and Price-Level Predictability: Lessons From the U.K. Experience

It is controversial whether money stock targeting without base drift (i.e. following a trend-stationary growth path) makes the price level more predictable in the presence of permanent shocks to money demand. Developing a procedure that does not run into the Lucas critique, and applying this procedure to the case of the U.K., the paper finds that the variance of the trend inflation rate in the U.K. would have been reduced by more than one half if the Bank of England had not allowed base drift.

Was Expansionary Monetary Policy Feasible During the Great Contraction? An Examination of the Gold Standard Constraint

The recent consensus view, that the gold standard was the leading cause of the worldwide Great Depression 1929-33, stems from two propositions: (1) Under the gold standard, deflationary shocks were transmitted between countries and, (2) for most countries, continued adherence to gold prevented monetary authorities from offsetting banking panics and blocked their recoveries. In this paper we contend that the second proposition applies only to small open economies with limited gold reserves. This was not the case for the US, the largest country in the world, holding massive gold reserves. The US was not constrained from using expansionary policy to offset banking panics, deflation, and declining economic activity. Simulations, based on a model of a large open economy, indicate that expansionary open market operations by the Federal Reserve at two critical junctures (October 1930 to February 1931; September 1931 through January 1932) would have been successful in averting the banking panics that occurred, without endangering convertibility. Indeed had expansionary open market purchases been conducted in 1930, the contraction would not have led to the international crises that followed.

Money Growth Variability and Money Supply Interdependence Under InterestRate Control: Some Evidence For Canada

Canada, like many countries, has recently experienced difficulties in achieving money growth stability and money supply independence. Based on the buffer-stock view of money-holding as well as the credit market approach to the money supply, this paper suggests that the problems have arisen from the Bank of Canada suse of an interestrate control mechanism.The paper argues that: (1) The short-run behavior of Canadian money grow this influenced by demand shifts in the Canadian credit market.(2)Movements in U.S. interest rates relative to the controlled Canadian interest rates are a key source of these shifts.The paper presents evidence on Canadian money supply and demand functions consistent with the foregoing explanation.

The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is Rupee Devaluation Inflationary?

This paper challenges the popular view that devaluation of the rupee is inflationary. Recent developments in the theoretical literature are reviewed to explain why consumer prices would be unresponsive to exchange rate changes in the short run. Then empirical tests are conducted for Pakistan during the period 1982 to 2001 to examine whether inflation is systematically related to changes in the exchange rate. The empirical analysis finds no association between rupee devaluations and inflation in Pakistan. It appears, therefore, that concerns about the inflationary consequences of rupee devaluation are unsupported by the facts

Asymmetric Technological Change in the Melitz Model: Are Foreign Technological Improvements Harmful?

Foreign technological advance unambiguously reduces home welfare in a popular variant of the Melitz (2003) model that assumes the presence of a costlessly traded homogeneous good (Demidova, 2008). The present paper shows that this result is sensitive to the presence of such a good and is reversed in its absence. Indeed, in a generalized version of the Melitz model that adds a nontraded good and nests the original version as a special case, we show that foreign technological advance always improves home welfare. We derive relations that require information on only a few parameters to calibrate the model to data. These relations are used to calibrate an international trade model for the United States for quantitative analysis of the welfare effects. US is found to gain much less from foreign technological improvements than its trading partners from US improvements