The Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of 2019 Novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Balochistan, Pakistan

Background: The unprecedented outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) drastically spread worldwide. The study was aimed to articulate the findings of a descriptive and clinical characteristic, also to access the potential risk factors link with the spread of COVID-19. Method: The COVID-19 cases reported through April 30, 2020, were extracted from Balochistan’s COVID-19 Electronic Dashboard. All cases from March to April 2020 were included. The results of the laboratory finding as well as data acquired through COVID-19 Dashboard were cleaned; descriptive exploratory analysis and chi-square were calculated to demonstrate the association using Epi- Info. Results: A total of 1381 patient records extracted and screened. Of these, 1218 suspected cases and 1049 confirmed cases contributed to the analysis. Among confirmed cases, 77% (811) were male. The most affected age group was 60 – 69 years (attack rate 1.90/10,000), mean age was 36 ±17.11 SD with age range 2 months-94 years.  District Quetta 82% (864) and district Pishin 5% (55) remained the epi-center for high attack rates. Among confirmed cases, a total of 14 deaths occurred for an overall Case fatality rate of 1.33%. The epi surge was peaked around March 19, April 5, and April 24, 2020. Among high-risk personals, those who had contact with infected individuals’ showed a high association of 97% (323/333) than without any contact 87% (221/254). Those who had travel history showed a prevalence of 86% (87/101) than in those who did not 59% (60/104) while those admitted in hospital with comorbid conditions showed a prevalence of 70% (26/37) than in those who did not 13% (6/46). Conclusion: COVID-19 epidemic has spread rapidly in the province. A series of multidimensional public health interventions, a cost-effective surveillance system, and the adoption of safe working practice, awareness sessions are necessary to control the COVID-19 outbrea

Estimation of Final Size of COVID-19 Epidemic in Balochistan Province, Pakistan

COVID-19 is a new disease that is spreading very fast in Pakistan. Cases have been reported from all of the provinces including Balochistan. The first two confirmed cases in Pakistan had travel history by road from Iran to Balochistan, hence SIR model used to predict the magnitude of the disease in Balochistan from May 2020 on wards when lock down and other social distancing measures were loosen up by the government of Balochistan. Our Prediction model shows that about 30,00000 individuals in Balochistan will be infected by 5th of July 2020. Over all 25% of the total population of Balochistan will be affected by this disease with 98% (2940,000 ) recovery rate by the end of 15th July 2020

Mortality Analysis of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Pakistan

Introduction: COVID-19, a novel disease, appeared in December 2019 in China and rapidly spread across the world. Till the second week of April 2020, high incidence (2.9/100,000) and cases fatality rates (1.7%) were observed in Pakistan. This study was conducted to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of the first 100 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Pakistan and their associated demographic factors. Method: A record review of the first 100 deaths reported among RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases was conducted. Demographic, epidemiological, and risk factors information was obtained associated comorbidities and clinical signs and symptoms were recorded and frequencies were determined. Results: A total of 100 mortalities with an overall case fatality rate of 1.67% (CFR) were analyzed. The median age of patients was 64.5 years (IQR: 54-70) with 75% (n=75) males. Among all deaths reported, 71 (71%) cases had one or more documented comorbidities at the time of diagnosis.  The most frequently reported co-morbidities were: hypertension (67%), followed by Diabetes Mellitus (45%) and Ischemic Heart Diseases (27%). The most frequent presenting symptoms were shortness of breath (87%) and fever (79%). The median duration of illness was eight days (IQR: 4-11 days), the median delay reaching hospital to seek health care was three days (IQR: 0-6 days) while the median duration of hospital stay was also three days (IQR: 1-7 days). Among all, 62% had no history of international travel. The most affected age group was 60-69 years while no death reported in the age group below 20 years