Habit Persistence and Welfare Gains from International Asset Trade

We introduce habit formation in a model that studies the link between international trade in financial assets, economic growth, and welfare. As with time separable preferences asset trade increases the mean growth rate, but it also increases growth-volatility. We demonstrate that the welfare gain from asset trade is lower with habit persistence in consumption. This reflects that the habit-forming households perceive the higher growth-volatility as a higher cost to obtain increased average growth. Calibrating the model to data for North America and Western Europe, we find that habit persistence lowers welfare gains of financial integration by about 40-50 %.Habit formation; financial integration; growth; welfare

Portfolio Choice when Managers Control Returns

This paper investigates the allocation decision of an investor with two projects. Separate managers control the mean return from each project, and the investor may or may not observe the managers’ actions. We show that the investor’s risk-return trade-off may be radically different from a standard portfolio choice setting, even if managers’ actions are observable and enforceable. In particular, feedback effects working through optimal contracts and effort levels imply that expected terminal wealth is nonlinear in initial wealth allocation. The optimal portfolio may involve very little diversification, despite projects that are highly symmetric in the underlying model. We also show that moral hazard in one of the projects need not imply lower allocation to that project. Expected returns are generally lower than under the first-best, but the optimal contract shifts more of the idiosyncratic risk in the hidden action project to the manager in charge of it. The minimum-variance position of the investor’s (net) terminal wealth would in most cases involve a portfolio shift towards the hidden action project, and there are plausible cases where this would dominate the overall effect on the second-best optimal portfolio when comparing with the first-best.Portfolio choice; diversification; optimal contracts

International Diversification, Growth, and Welfare with Non-Traded Income Risk and Incomplete Markets

We ask how the potential benefits from cross-border asset trade are affected by the presence of non-traded income risk in incomplete markets. We show that the mean consumption growth may be lower with full integration than in financial autarky. This can occur because: the hedging demand for risky high-return projects may fall as the investment opportunity set increases, and precautionary savings may fall as the unhedgeable non-traded income variance decreases upon financial integration. We also show that international asset trade increases welfare if it increases the risk-adjusted growth rate. This is always the case in our model, but the effect may be close to negligible. The welfare gain is smaller the higher the correlation between the domestic non-traded income process and foreign asset returns.Incomplete markets;financial integration;growth;welfare

On Asymmetric Information across Countries and the Home-Bias Puzzel

This paper investigates the allocation decision of an investor who owns two projects, a domestic and a foreign one. A manager governs the expected return from each project, and the investor has less information on the actions of the foreign manager. The investor’s portfolio will be tilted relative to a situation with full information. With asymmetric information, he generally achieves a better risk-return characteristic of his net terminal wealth with an allocation different from full diversification, because a biased allocation can be beneficial to the managers’ efforts and/or risk properties of the optimal contracts. However, numerical simulations illustrate that, in general, the portfolio bias is small for plausible parameter values, and theoretically it may even be towards the foreign project. This weakens the case for asymmetric information as a prime reason for the observed home-bias in portfolio allocation.Asymmetric information; portfolio selection

Financial Integration and Consumption Comovements in the Nordic Countries

The cross-country correlations between annual per capita consumption growth in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) during the period 1973-1996 are much lower than predicted by the basic theory of international financial integration. Capturing that the consumption behavior of parts of the population may be myopic and that some external consumption risks may be uninsured, this paper attempts to shed light on this observation. We find some evidence of myopic consumption behavior in Denmark, Finland and Sweden. Taking this into account, the financial markets of the Nordic economies seem to be well integrated. It proves hard to identify uninsured external consumption risks at the aggregate level.International financial integration; international risk sharing; capital mobility

Joker: Choice in a simple game with large stakes

This paper examines data from the Norwegian television game show Joker, where contestants make well-specified choices under risk. The game involves very large stakes, randomly drawn contestants, and ample opportunities for learning. Expected utility (EU) theory gives a simple prediction of choice under weak conditions, as one choice is always first-order stochastically dominating. We document frequent, systematic and costly violations of dominance. Most alternative theories fail to add explanatory power beyond the EU benchmark, but many contestants appear to have a systematic expectation bias that can be related to Tversky and Kahneman?s (1973) "availability heuristic". In addition, there seems to be a stochastic element in choice that is well captured by the so-called Fechner model.Risky choice; stochastic dominance; choice models; stakes; game show

Optimal Portfolio Choice and Investment in Education

In this paper we analyze how an individual should optimally invest in her own human capital when she also has financial wealth. We treat the individual’s option to take more education as expansion options and apply real option analysis. We characterize the individual’s optimal consumption strategy and portfolio weights. The individual has a demand for hedging financial risk, labor income risk, and also wage level risk.Optimal portfolio choice; Investment in human capital; Hedging demand

Optimal Dutch Disease

Growth models of the Dutch disease, such as those of Krugman (1987), Matsuyama (1992), Sachs and Warner (1995) and Gylfason et al. (1999), explain why resource abundance may reduce growth. However, the literature also raises a new question: if the use of resource wealth hurts productivity growth, how should such wealth be optimally managed? This question forms the topic of the present paper, in which we extend the growth literature on the Dutch disease from a positive to a normative setting. We show that the assumptions in the previous literature imply that the optimal share of national wealth consumed in each period needs to be adjusted down. However, some Dutch disease is always optimal. Thus lower growth in resource abundant countries may not be a problem in itself, but may be part of an optimal growth path. The optimal spending path of the resource wealth may be increasing or decreasing over time, and we discuss why this is the case.Growth; Foreign Exchange Gifts; Resource Wealth; Optimal Saving; Current Account Dynamics

Designing Social Security – A Portfolio Choice Approach

Public social security systems may provide diversification of risks to individuals’ life-time income. Capturing that a pay-as-you-go program (paygo) may be considered as a “quasiasset”, we study the optimal size of the social security program as well as the optimal split between a funded part and a paygo part by means of a theoretical portfolio choice approach. A low-yielding paygo system can benefit individuals if it contributes to hedge other risks to their lifetime resources. Moreover, a funded part of the social security system can be justified by potential imperfections to the individuals’ free access to the stock market. Numerical calculations for Sweden, Norway, the US and the UK demonstrate that the optimal size of paygo-part of the pension program varies considerably in response to differences in projected growth rates and the correlation between stock returns and growth. Our calculations suggest that a paygo program has an important role in the three former countries – but not in the U.K.Social security; risk sharing; portfolio choice

Joker: Choice in a simple game with large stakes

This paper examines data from the Norwegian television game show Joker, where contestants make well-specified choices under risk. The game involves very large stakes, randomly drawn contestants, and ample opportunities for learning. Expected utility (EU) theory gives a simple prediction of choice under weak conditions, as one choice is always first-order stochastically dominating. We document frequent, systematic and costly violations of dominance. Most alternative theories fail to add explanatory power beyond the EU benchmark, but many contestants appear to have a systematic expectation bias that cam be related to Tversky and Kahneman's (1973) ""availability heuristic"". In addition, there seems to be a stochastic element in choice that is well captured by the so-called Fechner model.Risky choice, stochastic dominance, choice models, stakes, game show