PEACE POLICIES IN THE SHADOW OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND THE LIMITED POSSIBILITIES OF NON-VIOLENT POLICIES

The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine agreed in 2015 in Minsk did not put an end to the war in Europe. On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a full scale mili tary offensive aimed at “demilitarising” and “denazifying” Ukraine, i.e. establishing a regime closely aligned with Russia and ceding Ukrainian territories to the aggres sor. Ever since, a military direction in internal politics has dominated in both the aggressor state and victim state, as well as the supportive policies of NATO, the EU, and other democratic partners of Ukraine. The vehement resistance of the Ukrainian army and population prevented the rapid capture of Kyiv and other large parts of the country. Since the sixth week of war, Russia has focused on conquering eastern and southern Ukraine. A very long war is now to be expected, in which neither side is likely to achieve its most lofty military aims. The peace policy (Friedenspolitik) has two aims. First and foremost, a ceasefire must be reached, and only then can a new international security apparatus and order of peace be conceivable. We can only expect to see any kind of fatigue in either party after hundreds of thousands of people fall victim to the war, and only then could we expect a ceasefire along the southeastern frontline in Ukraine – which line exactly is, today, impossible to determine. Such a ceasefire will likely be achieved by strong national conservative politicians, while only a small contribution can be made by the peace movement. Thus, once again, a “frozen conflict” is expected along a changed line of military demarcation. It is unlikely that a democratic, peace demanding popular movement would change the regime in Russia. The removal of Putin from the presidency by the Russian power elite is conceivable but would not fundamentally change the Putinist autocratic system, i.e. Russia will certainly not give up its posi tions in Crimea, nor is it likely in the Donbas either. The assumption that all post communist countries will gradually become demo cratic after being integrated into the capitalist world economy and its institutions has proven to be wrong. Some countries have spawned new autocratic regimes and consider themselves threatened by Western democracies, which is why they ally with other autocracies. This will lead us to a new global conflict between political sys tems, which will be somewhat different from the historical East West conflict. In it, new military demarcation lines are being drawn between democracies and autocra cies. International politics is once again faced with the task of establishing a peaceful coexistence between them. To this end, this text will present a few seemingly feasible proposals

Democracy and Nationalism - Unity or Contradiction?

Demokracija u Istočnoj Evropi ima samo jednu, ali u većini slučajeva samo malu i slabu šansu, naime kao nacionalna demokracija, kao demokracija u nacionalnim državama s više ili manje izraženim etničkim državnom rezonom. Nacionalna se država misli isključivo kao etnokracija, kao samoodređenje naroda u etničkom smislu, kao vladavina naroda (etnosa) nad samim sobom. Istok ne može oponašati zapadnu povijest državnog nacionalizma i razvoja zapadne demokracije; on demokraciju i pravnu državu mora stvoriti na svojim vlastitim iskustvima i povijesnim pretpostavkama. Stvaranje nacionalne države etnonacionalizmom očito je povijesna pretpostavka za nastanak stabilnih država, koje tek omogućuju gospodarski i kulturni razvoj građanskog društva i razvoj demokratskih struktura.ln Eastern Europe democracy has only one, in most cases certainly very small and weak chance, namely as a national democracy, as dcmocracy in nation stutes with a more or less explicitly pronounced raison d\u27etat. A nation state is thought of exclusively as an ethnocracy, as self-determination of the people in an ethnic sense, as thc rule of the nation (ethnos) over itself. The East cannot imitate the Western history of state nationalism and of the development of Western democracy; it must create democracy and the state of law out of its own experiencecs and historical presuppositions. The creation of a nation state through ethnonationalism is clearly a historical presupposition for the coming into being of stable states, which is an inavoidable condition for the development of economic and cultural aspects of civic society as well as of democratic structures