Fatness and muscularity as risk indicators of child mortality in rural Congo

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relationship of anthropometrical indicators of fatness and muscularity with mortality in children in a rural African community. BACKGROUND: A prospective cohort study was carried out in the rural health zone of Bwamanda, Northern Congo using a random cluster sample of 5167 children, aged 0-5 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Short- and long-term mortality rates, being deaths within 3 months and deaths in 3-month periods observed 3-30 months after enrolment. Rates of all cause mortality and of mortality from kwashiorkor or marasmus, by level of baseline fatness and muscularity. Indicators of fatness and muscularity were obtained by correcting anthropometric arm fat and arm muscle areas for age, sex, weight and height. RESULTS: The relationship of both the fatness and muscularity scores with short-term mortality was marked by a clear threshold (-0.5 SDS) below which there was a significant rise in mortality from all causes as well as from kwashiorkor and marasmus. These excess mortalities were also found in normal weight children. Fatness and muscularity scores remained significant determining factors of short-term mortality in a multiple logistic regression analysis with sex, age, season and weight-for-age. A ROC curve analysis showed that fat and muscularity scores had better predictive abilities than weight-for-age. Low fat status had a bad prognosis on the long-term in underweight children. CONCLUSIONS: Measures of current nutritional status should not be based on weight indices alone. Objective and/or clinical evaluation of fat and muscle status (also in normal weight children) should be added in order to detect a higher proportion of malnourished children and to more accurately evaluate mortality risk

Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics

This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income, but also, given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policy makers in Greece

The tourism and economic growth enigma: Examining an ambiguous relationship through multiple prisms

This paper revisits the ambiguous relationship between tourism and economic growth, providing a comprehensive study of destinations across the globe which takes into account the key dynamics that influence tourism and economic performance. We focus on 113 countries over the period 1995-2014, clustered, for the first time, around six criteria that reflect their economic, political and tourism dimensions. A Panel Vector Autoregressive model is employed which, in contrast to previous studies, allows the data to reveal any tourism-economy interdependencies across these clusters, without imposing a priori the direction of causality. Overall, the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis seems to prevail in countries which are developing, non-democratic, highly bureaucratic and have low tourism specialization. Conversely, bidirectional relationships are established for economies which are stronger, democratic and with higher levels of government effectiveness. Thus, depending on the economic, political and tourism status of a destination, different policy implications apply