One Hundred Priority Questions for the Development of Sustainable Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an expected doubling of human population and tripling of food demand over the next quarter century, posing a range of severe environmental, political, and socio-economic challenges. In some cases, key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are in direct conflict, raising difficult policy and funding decisions, particularly in relation to trade-offs between food production, social inequality, and ecosystem health. In this study, we used a horizon-scanning approach to identify 100 practical or research-focused questions that, if answered, would have the greatest positive impact on addressing these trade-offs and ensuring future productivity and resilience of food-production systems across sub-Saharan Africa. Through direct canvassing of opinions, we obtained 1339 questions from 331 experts based in 55 countries. We then used online voting and participatory workshops to produce a final list of 100 questions divided into 12 thematic sections spanning topics from gender inequality to technological adoption and climate change. Using data on the background of respondents, we show that perspectives and priorities can vary, but they are largely consistent across different professional and geographical contexts. We hope these questions provide a template for establishing new research directions and prioritising funding decisions in sub-Saharan Africa

One hundred priority questions for the development of sustainable food systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an expected doubling of human population and tripling of food demand over the next quarter century, posing a range of severe environmental, political, and socio-economic challenges. In some cases, key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are in direct conflict, raising difficult policy and funding decisions, particularly in relation to trade-offs between food production, social inequality, and ecosystem health. In this study, we used a horizon-scanning approach to identify 100 practical or research-focused questions that, if answered, would have the greatest positive impact on addressing these trade-offs and ensuring future productivity and resilience of food-production systems across sub-Saharan Africa. Through direct canvassing of opinions, we obtained 1339 questions from 331 experts based in 55 countries. We then used online voting and participatory workshops to produce a final list of 100 questions divided into 12 thematic sections spanning topics from gender inequality to technological adoption and climate change. Using data on the background of respondents, we show that perspectives and priorities can vary, but they are largely consistent across different professional and geographical contexts. We hope these questions provide a template for establishing new research directions and prioritising funding decisions in sub-Saharan Africa

Building a Fuzzy Cognitive Map from stakeholder knowledge : An Episodic, asynchronous approach

Participatory modelling (PM) processes involve stakeholders in developing a simplified representation of reality based on stakeholders' knowledge, perceptions, values and assumptions about a system in which they live and/or work. There has been an increase in the need for structured methods for the implementation of PM processes, to elicit knowledge from stakeholders and to represent this knowledge in a model. This paper presents a method to support the participatory component of modelling processes without the need for face-to-face interactions. The method, which we term Episodic and Asynchronous (EAsy) was applied to construct a Fuzzy Cognitive Map of the Nigerian rice agri-food system. The stakeholder determined Fuzzy Cognitive Map was further applied to develop scenarios and identify leverage points for intervention in the system. The results demonstrate that the EAsy approach is an effective way for co-production to be achieved. The EAsy approach can thus be considered valid to construct a representation of a complex social-ecological system. Using the results and analysis of our process, we discuss the limitations and benefits of this PM method

Identifying system archetypes in Nigeria’s rice agri-food system using fuzzy cognitive mapping

Nigeria is a major rice-producing and rice-importing country in Africa, challenged with ensuring rice-food security for its growing population. Successive governments have implemented several strategies to increase local rice production such as rice import restriction policies and agricultural investments. These strategies have yielded results but achieving long-term sustainable growth in Nigeria’s rice agri-food system has remained elusive. Addressing food security and sustainability in agri-food systems requires a systems-thinking approach. In this study, we applied two systems thinking techniques, fuzzy cognitive mapping (for describing the system structure and behavior) and archetype analysis (to reveal generic system archetypes and effective strategies to improve the system). Our analysis revealed three system archetypes: limits to success, fixes that fail, and drifting goals. Rice production is limited by low agricultural productivity indicating the “limits to success” archetype. Farmers tend to increase rice area as a “quick fix” to productivity issues but this quick fix leads to unintended consequences such as soil degradation (fixes that fail archetype). Additionally, because of the import-restriction policies generating an unmet demand for rice, the government may face pressure to lower the goal of self-sufficiency falling into the “drifting goals” archetype. However, our analysis shows that suspending import-restriction policies would result in undesirable system states, with reduced demand for local rice and lower rice production. Our results underscore the importance of government policies in increasing rice production sustainably and ensuring food security