Availability, Affordability and Volatility: the case of Hong Kong Housing Market

Housing prices in Hong Kong have gained international attention. This study suggests that the housing supply may be insufficient. Consistent with previous studies, we confirm that merely increasing the land supply may not increase the housing supply. We also find preliminary evidence for widening income inequality, which, when combined with unavailability, can lead to unaffordability in the housing market. Given the current housing supply elasticity with respect to price, Hong Kong is not more volatile than major cities in the United States. Thus, improving housing availability and thereby increasing housing supply elasticity, could effectively decrease housing price volatility

Speculating China economic growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from the stock market IPO and real estate markets

This paper argues that since China closes her asset markets, investors turn to Hong Kong instead. The initial public offerings (IPO) of Chinese firms in the Hong Kong stock market and the local housing market of Hong Kong improve the prediction of each other, as they may serve as a coordinator of herds among investors. Alternative explanations such as the “production conjecture” and “underlying factor conjecture” are found to be inconsistent with the data. Our results are also consistent with the increasing importance of Chinese tourists in the world. Directions for future research are also discussed

Speculating China economic growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from the stock market IPO and real estate markets

This paper argues that since China closes her asset markets, investors turn to Hong Kong instead. The initial public offerings (IPO) of Chinese firms in the Hong Kong stock market and the local housing market of Hong Kong improve the prediction of each other, as they may serve as a coordinator of herds among investors. Alternative explanations such as the “production conjecture” and “underlying factor conjecture” are found to be inconsistent with the data. Our results are also consistent with the increasing importance of Chinese tourists in the world. Directions for future research are also discussed

Commodity house prices

This paper studies how commodity price movements have affected the local house prices in commodity-dependent economies, Australia and New Zealand. We build a geographically hierarchical empirical model and find the commodity prices influence local house prices directly and also indirectly through macroeconomic variables. The impacts of commodity price changes are analogous to “income shocks” rather than “cost shocks”. Regional heterogeneity is also observed in terms of differential dynamic responses of local house prices to energy versus non-energy commodity price movements. The results are robust to alternative approaches. Directions for future research are also discussed

Commodity house prices

This paper studies how commodity price movements have affected the local house prices in commodity-dependent economies, Australia and New Zealand. We build a geographically hierarchical empirical model and find the commodity prices influence local house prices directly and also indirectly through macroeconomic variables. The impacts of commodity price changes are analogous to “income shocks” rather than “cost shocks”. Regional heterogeneity is also observed in terms of differential dynamic responses of local house prices to energy versus non-energy commodity price movements. The results are robust to alternative approaches. Directions for future research are also discussed

What do we know about Housing Supply? The case of Hong Kong

The house price in Hong Kong is well-known to be "unaffordable." This paper relates the macroeconomy and the housing market of Hong Kong and argues that the housing supply plays a vital role in explaining the phenomenon. This paper also shows that there are some practical challenges in understanding the housing supply of Hong Kong, including the potentially complicated ownership structure of real estate development. While the discussion centers on the situation of Hong Kong, its lesson may also apply to the housing markets in other small open economies

What do we know about Housing Supply? The case of Hong Kong

The house price in Hong Kong is well-known to be "unaffordable." This paper relates the macroeconomy and the housing market of Hong Kong and argues that the housing supply plays a vital role in explaining the phenomenon. This paper also shows that there are some practical challenges in understanding the housing supply of Hong Kong, including the potentially complicated ownership structure of real estate development. While the discussion centers on the situation of Hong Kong, its lesson may also apply to the housing markets in other small open economies

Does an Oligopolistic Primary Market Matter? The Case of an Asian Housing Market

This paper takes advantage of the oligopolistic structure of the Hong Kong primary housing market and examines whether the time-variations of the market concentration are caused by or cause the variations of the local economic factors. The analysis also takes into consideration of the changes of the U.S. variables and commodity prices, which arguably may represent changes in the construction cost. We find clear evidence of time-varying responses of housing market variables to macroeconomic variables. Policy implications and directions for future research are also discussed

Association between duration of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist use and cardiovascular risks: A population-based competing-risk analysis

Background Although androgen deprivation therapy has known cardiovascular risks, it is unclear if its duration is related to cardiovascular risks. This study thus aimed to investigate the associations between gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist use duration and cardiovascular risks. Methods This retrospective cohort study included adult patients with prostate cancer receiving GnRH agonists in Hong Kong during 1999–2021. Patients who switched to GnRH antagonists, underwent bilateral orchidectomy, had <6 months of GnRH agonist, prior myocardial infarction (MI), or prior stroke was excluded. All patients were followed up until September 2021 for a composite endpoint of MI and stroke. Multivariable competing-risk regression using the Fine-Gray subdistribution model was used, with mortality from any cause as the competing event. Results In total, 4038 patients were analyzed (median age 74.9 years old, interquartile range (IQR) 68.7–80.8 years old). Over a median follow-up of 4.1 years (IQR 2.1–7.5 years), longer GnRH agonists use was associated with higher risk of the endpoint (sub-hazard ratio per year 1.04 [1.01–1.06], p = 0.001), with those using GnRH agonists for ≥2 years having an estimated 23% increase in the sub-hazard of the endpoint (sub-hazard ratio 1.23 [1.04–1.46], p = 0.017). Conclusion Longer GnRH agonist use may be associated with greater cardiovascular risks

Major adverse cardiovascular events of enzalutamide versus abiraterone in prostate cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

Background While the cardiovascular risks of androgen receptor pathway inhibitors have been studied, they were seldom compared directly. This study compares the risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) between enzalutamide and abiraterone among prostate cancer (PCa) patients. Methods Adult PCa patients receiving either enzalutamide or abiraterone in addition to androgen deprivation therapy in Hong Kong between 1 December 1999 and 31 March 2021 were identified in this retrospective cohort study. Patients who switched between enzalutamide and abiraterone, initiated abiraterone used without steroids, or experienced prior cardiac events were excluded. Patients were followed-up until 30 September 2021. The primary outcomes were MACE, a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), Heart failure (HF), or all-cause mortality and a composite of adverse cardiovascular events (CACE) not including all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes were individual components of MACE. Inverse probability treatment weighting was used to balance covariates between treatment groups. Results In total, 1015 patients were analyzed (456 enzalutamide users and 559 abiraterone users; mean age 70.6 ± 8.8 years old) over a median follow-up duration of 11.3 (IQR: 5.3–21.3) months. Enzalutamide users had significantly lower risks of 4P-MACE (weighted hazard ratio (wHR) 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59–0.86], p < 0.001) and CACE (wHR 0.63 [95% CI: 0.42–0.96], p = 0.031), which remained consistent in multivariable analysis. Such an association may be stronger in patients aged ≥65 years or without diabetes mellitus and was independent of bilateral orchidectomy. Enzalutamide users also had significantly lower risks of MI (wHR 0.57 [95% CI: 0.33–0.97], p = 0.040) and all-cause mortality (wHR 0.71 [95% CI: 0.59–0.85], p < 0.001). Conclusion Enzalutamide was associated with lower cardiovascular risks than abiraterone in PCa patients