Regional impacts of trade liberalization strategies in Brazil

There is a great interest in free trade areas (FTA) in Brazil, predominantly in the context of a proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). In addition, a free trade area between MERCOSUR (the customs union involving Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay) and the European Union has also been considered. In this paper, an interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the long-run regional effects of alternative trade liberalization strategies on Brazil. The model provides a description of the Brazilian inter-regional economic system, divided into two regions - Sao Paulo and Other Regions in Brazil. One of its innovations is a full specification of foreign trade in both regions, capturing the complete structure of trade flows and import tariffs, linking the two Brazilian regions and a set of foreign markets. In this way, adequate simulations of tariff liberalization can be implemented for several possibilities of trade agreements.computable general equilibrium; regional models; trade policy; Brazil

Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization Strategies in Brazil

There is a great interest in free trade areas (FTA) in Brazil, predominantly in the context of a proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). In addition, a free trade area between MERCOSUR (the customs union involving Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay) and the European Union has also been considered. In this paper, an interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the long-run regional effects of alternative trade liberalization strategies on Brazil. The model provides a description of the Brazilian inter-regional economic system, divided into two regions - Sao Paulo and Other Regions in Brazil. One of its innovations is a full specification of foreign trade in both regions, capturing the complete structure of trade flows and import tariffs, linking the two Brazilian regions and a set of foreign markets. In this way, adequate simulations of tariff liberalization can be implemented for several possibilities of trade agreements.

INDUSTRIAL CORES AND PERIPHERIES IN BRAZIL

The aim of this paper is to identify the Brazilian industrial cores and peripheries. The study is based on two sets of data: the first describes 35600 industrial firms, and the second has information on the economic, social and urban structure of 5507 cities (2000). The conclusions are: (1) 84% of the industrial value-added (IVA) is concentrated in some type of industrial cluster; (2) 75% is in 15 spatial industrial agglomerations, which are industrial clusters with industrialized peripheries; (3) the are other 23 industrial cluster (local industrial agglomerations and industrial enclaves) with 9% of IVA; (4) the remaining 16% is geographically dispersed. Our main conclusion is: the Brazilian economic space is a mixed case. It is not a set of disconnected or isolated industrial islands, but it is still behind a full regional economic integration.

Análise dos determinantes do valor adicionado e do faturamento do trabalho das unidades locais de serviços em geral, serviços de transportes e serviços de comunicação

Incluye BibliografíaO estudo das empresas de serviços no Brasil, principalmente na sua dimensão territorial, é uma tarefa importante e que se encontra em seus passos iniciais. Este trabalho implementa um método de regionalização dos dados da PAS que procura superar o problema da falta de informações das unidades locais das empresas de serviços, uma vez que os dados da pesquisa referem-se à sede das empresas. A utilização dos dados da RAIS para a obtenção da regionalização está sujeita a diversas críticas e imperfeições, mais importantes em alguns grupos dos serviços. A associação da localização da indústria com os serviços é confirmada nos modelos econométricos estimados, embora a heterogeneidade do grupo indique que esta relação tenda a ser diferenciada. Uma observação relevante para o foco das políticas discutidas acima se refere aos resultados sobre as decomposições dos componentes da variância dos modelos, no que tange a suas implicações em termos de distribuição geográfica das empresas de serviços. Os resultados evidenciam uma natureza bem distinta de distribuição geográfica da oferta dos três grupos de serviços, que reflete diferenças importantes da estrutura de demanda. Este estudo avalia as articulações das aglomerações de empresas de serviços com as estruturas produtivas municipais e os atributos da firma, o que permite destacar os seguintes resultados que podem subsidiar políticas públicas que tenham em foco os serviços: (1) as grandes aglomerações de empresas de serviços são diversificadas e articuladas com segmentos específicos da indústria, em particular os setores difusores de tecnologia; (2) uma política de desenvolvimento regional teria nas empresas de alta tecnologia um fator de atração de firmas de serviços de produtividade elevada; (3) as propostas ideais seriam a de dispersão coordenda", sendo que esta estaria articulada à (re)localização de empresas e setores industriais inovadores e difusores de progresso tecnológico.

CONSIDERAÇÕES SOBRE O IMPACTO DOS FUNDOS CONSTITUCIONAIS DE FINANCIAMENTO DO NORTE E DO CENTRO-OESTE NA REDUÇÃO DA DESIGUALDADE REGIONAL NO BRASIL

There is considerable evidence to demonstrate that the regional development in developing countries shows high level of spatial concentration. The aim of this paper is to analyze the Brazilian case to identify if the Brazilian constitutional funds (FNO and FCO) have a positive impact on the regional inequality. These funds have been created in 1989 in order to finance economic activities in the North and Northeast regions. Our results show that regional growth in Brazil over the last 10 years has not been affected by these constitutional funds. On the other way, public infra-structure, education and health have a positive relation with regional growth, which suggests that the public expending on those funds should be directed to these regional attributes.

Impacto dos investimentos do PAC em Minas Gerais: efeitos sobre crescimento e desigualdade

The Brazilian federal government has recently set out plans encompassing detailed public expenditure programs and targets on infra-structure investment (PAC, Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento). We investigate the sectoral, regional and national economic consequences of the PAC in Minas Gerais. Our modeling encompasses much detail. Firstly, we use a large-scale multi-regional CGE model of Brazil. The model is both bottom-up and top-down: bottom-up for Brazil's 27 states, and top-down for Brazil's 558 microrregions. Despite the high level of regional disaggregation, the level of sectoral disaggregation is also high, at 36 sectors. Secondly, we model the PAC in detail, considering each of the 9 sets of expenditure programs under the 2008-11 plan. We find that the PAC can have strong impacts in Minas Gerais, but can contribute to a increase in regional inequality in the state in long run.regional modeling, general equilibrium, infrastructure, regional inequality, Brazil