A New Brazilian Economic Miracle?

Wirtschaftswachstum; Außenwirtschaft; Industriepolitik; Inflation; Investition; Brasilien

From technology absorption to technology production: industrial strategy and technological capacity in Brazil's development process

This article surveys the evolution of technology policy in Brazil from its inception to the present day, examining the changes that it has undergone along the way. Having sketched in the apropriate background, it goes on to discuss the broad technological impact of rapid liberalization in the 1990s

Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation: A

The Dollar and Kraay (2000) paper has proved to be remarkably influential with many of its conclusions widely quoted, particularly in support of the open market policies of the ‘Washington consensus’. However, although there have been a number of critical commentaries there have been very few formal analyses of the results or of the robustness of the support which they provide for the policy conclusions. In this paper the Dollar and Kraay results are investigated from a number of different perspectives. First, a number of questions are raised about the approach adopted. In particular, the Dollar and Kraay paper is notable for having no theoretical structure supporting the specification of the equations. It is unclear how much significance therefore can be attached to the correlations uncovered. In addition, there are the well-known difficulties of drawing conclusions from large cross section samples as well as the attendant problems of data quality. Finally, the identification of poverty with the income of the lowest quintile does not map into either an absolute or relative measure of poverty. There are thus grounds for an initial scepticism. However, this paper then considers in some detail the precise results reported in Dollar and Kraay. The results are replicated and a number of experiments with different regressors and different samples are performed. It is found that the central result of a strong correlation between average per capita income and the income of the lowest quintile is robust and holds under all of the various regressions. However, a number of important caveats are noted. First, a similarly strong result is also found for the higher quintiles. One is entitled to wonder whether the regressions are picking up any movement in the distribution of income, which is known to have changed markedly in a number of countries. Second, the significance of the other regressors in Dollar and Kraay, upon which much of the policy support hinges, changes dramatically under different samples and equations. Although the negative impact of inflation is maintained in most, but not all, of the alternative experiments, the significance of the openness variable vanishes while the significance of the rule of law variable, for which Dollar and Kraay found no evidence, emerges strongly. In addition, when the Gini coefficient is substituted for the income of the bottom quintile the performance of the equation falls markedly, with, however, a strong negative correlation with average income suggesting that higher income reduces inequality. It is unclear how this result is consistent with the Dollar and Kraay findings. The implications of this paper are that in general the policy prescriptions associated with the Dollar and Kraay regressions cannot be sustained. In addition, the weakness of the variable chosen to measure poverty and the differing support provided in different specifications for the other regressors fully justifies the initial scepticism and invites further research in this area.

Is there a new Brazilian development model?

As the world begins to wake up to the dire social and economic consequences of rising inequality, we must recognise that it is not an inevitable side-effect of economic growth and development. Many Latin American countries, and Brazil in particular, have demonstrated it is possible to achieve inclusive growth, which has reduced inequality and poverty. Despite its current difficulties, Brazil offers a striking example of inclusive growth. Inequality has fallen sharply over the past decade and a half, a period which has also seen the country lift an estimated 40 million people out of poverty. Although growth rates have been modest in comparison to China or India, Brazil has implemented a raft of measures to ensure the results of such growth have been shared throughout society. While Brazilians have seen their incomes rise, the poorest have benefited most. The growth experienced by Brazil hasn't simply been attained through the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources. Despite serious lingering problems, deforestation rates in the Amazon have fallen remarkably since 2004. New jobs have been created, child mortality has plummeted, and schooling rates have increased. So how have these gains been achieved, are they sustainable, what challenges remain, and what can other developing countries learn from Brazil's experiences? These were the questions asked by a team of researchers from Brazil, Europe and the USA who formed the International Research Initiative on Brazil and Africa (IRIBA). This issue of Policy in Focus looks at the findings and insights they have produced. The foundations of Brazilian progress can be traced back to the transition from a dictatorship to a democracy in the mid-1980s and the vision for the country which emerged. A firm consensus between citizens and politicians to address the "social debt" created by soaring inequality set the country on a new path. After the economy was stabilised in the mid-1990s, the economic management pursued by successive governments enabled innovative social policies to flourish. As a more inclusive and prosperous Brazil has developed, the public demand for further progress has also grown. The large protests surrounding the 2014 Football World Cup, worries about an economy mired in recession, and deep concern with serious corruption scandals demonstrate that the Brazilian consensus is under considerable strain. [...

Teoría Económica y Desarrollo Social. Exclusión, desigualdad y democracia. Homenaje a Adolfo Figueroa

Los autores de los artículos de este libro de homenaje a Adolfo Figueroa abordan temas de desigualdad, exclusión y políticas para el desarrollo social y de la democraciadesigualdad, Brasil

Infrastructure and its role in Brazil's development process

AbstractThis article considers the relationship between growth and infrastructure spending in the Brazilian context and the nature and causes of infrastructural underinvestment. The paper begins by considering the relationship between infrastructural investment and economic growth on both a national and regional basis. Next, focusing on the critical urban transportation sector, the paper gauges the infrastructural shortfall facing Brazil and the policies designed to overcome it. Given the obvious importance of infrastructure, why has investment not been higher? In the final section we argue that a central reason for this lies in regulatory design and implementation

México: alza de precios de los alimentos y restricciones al crecimiento

Incluye BibliografíaMediante técnicas de panel dinámico se evalúa en qué medida el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de México será afectado por la inflación de los precios de los alimentos a largo plazo. Se sostiene que es posible que los pronunciados aumentos de los precios internacionales de los alimentos (similares a los observados desde 2001) se mantengan y acentúen las restricciones al crecimiento del país. Los resultados indican que en una economía como la mexicana, altamente dependiente de los alimentos importados, el alza de sus precios internacionales repercutirá perceptiblemente en el ipc. Por este motivo, es probable que la aplicación de una política monetaria que no considere el problema estructural de la inflación de los precios de los alimentos resulte ineficaz para controlar la presión inflacionaria y repercuta negativamente en la demanda y el crecimiento. De ahí que la revitalización del sector agrícola mexicano deberá ser fundamental en la futura política antiinflacionaria