A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON CHINA TRADE GROWTH: APPLICATION OF A NEW INDEX OF BILATERAL TRADE INTENSITY

This paper analyzes China’s trade relationships using a new trade intensity index, which incorporates gravity model estimation, to compare observed trade levels with levels would be expected to prevail given the economic, geographic, and cultural characteristics of the trading partners. The index is calculated to study China’s bilateral trade intensity, and uses Japan as a comparative case. Standard trade intensity index measures suggest China trades at a very intensive level with countries in East and Southeast Asia (ESA) and at a low level with countries in Europe (EU) and US-Canada (USC). The gravity model based index indicates that China’s level of trade with countries in the ESA region is consistent with levels that would be expected given the countries’ characteristics, while China’s level of trade with EU and USC are greater than one would expect given their characteristics. The new index also reveals insights regarding the evolution of China’s trade partners during the years 1988-2005. The paper’s results suggest the gravity model adjusted trade intensity index can provide a useful analytical tool for identifying strategic or other deviations in trade levels.Gravity model, Trade Intensity Index, Bilateral Trade, China

Relative Economic Decline and Unrealized Demographic Opportunity in the Philippines

The paper examines the long-run relationship between demographic and macroeconomic development trends in the Philippines, and compares trends observed in that country to trends in eight regional neighbors in East and Southeast Asia. The Philippines stands out from these countries in that available data suggests the country has completed its demographic transition to a much lesser extent than comparison countries. Analysis of trends shows that the Philippine economy has lost ground to the country's neighbors over the past 50 years, and that its unfulfilled demographic transition has played a key role in explaining the country's relative economic decline. The paper reviews established economic theory and a few simple counter-factual simulations to explain and support this conclusion. The authors also consider the relationship between demographic trends and associated economic developments, and the political situation in the country. Despite discouraging findings regarding the Philippines' relative economic decline, the paper notes the country's more favorable performance in social development vis-à-vis its neighbors. The paper ends on an optimistic note, pointing to: recent economic reforms, the unrealized potential of a 'demographic dividend,' rising demand and use of modern family planning among Philippine households, and the favorable long run outlook for Philippine Overseas Contract Workers, as causes for optimism regarding future demographic change and the country's economic prospects.

Terrorism and Tourism in the Asia Pacific Region: Is Travel and Tourism in a New World After 9/11?

The paper reviews trends in travel and tourism in selected Asia Pacific countries before and after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11) to consider the question of whether or not global tourism has fundamentally changed since 9/11. Tourism is an important economic sector in several Asia Pacific countries and is a "fragile" industry in that it is highly susceptible to external shocks such as wars, outbreaks of deadly contagious diseases, incidents of terrorism, and so on. The first part of the paper presents a stylized picture of industry response following terrorist incidents and other major negative shocks to tourism, and reviews international tourist arrivals at selected Asia Pacific destinations. A richer body of data available for Japan and the U.S. allows examination of the extent of substitution between domestic and international travel, and the impact of changed travel behavior on tourist spending. The paper finds that there has been significant substitution of domestic travel for overseas travel by nationals of both countries after 9/11, and that this has had a dramatic impact on the Hawaii tourism market. The paper explores some of the reasons for the differences observed in post-9/11 travel recoveries across Asia Pacific countries.

How inefficient are small-scale rice farmers in eastern India really?: Examining the effects of microtopography on technical efficiency estimates

We focus on the impact of failing to control for differences in land types defined along toposequence on estimates of farm technical efficiency for small-scale rice farms in eastern India. In contrast with the existing literature, we find that those farms may be considerably more technically efficient than they appear from more aggregated analysis without such control. Farms planted with modern rice varieties are technically efficient. Furthermore, farms planted with traditional rice varieties operate close to the production frontier on less productive lands (upland and mid-upland), but significant technical inefficiency exists on more productive lands (medium land and lowland).

The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii

This paper reviews recent trends in travel and tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii to ascertain how the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and subsequent terrible global events affected their tourism flows and the manner and pace of their recovery. We note that tourism in the U.S. has not fully recovered from 9/11 and other international shocks; indeed recovery of international travel to the U.S. may be a long way off. By contrast, Hawaii tourism is enjoying robust growth in the aftermath of 9/11 as growth in tourist arrivals from the U.S. mainland has more than offset declines in Japanese and other international visitors. We suggest that Hawaii's current tourism boom is in part explained by the diversion of U.S. travel from foreign travel. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of vector error correction models to generate dynamic visitor forecasts which we use to ascertain whether tourism in Hawaii has fully recovered from 9/11 and other terrible international events. The paper considers policy options for facilitating the recovery of international tourism to the U.S.

The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii

This paper reviews recent trends in travel and tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii to ascertain how the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and subsequent terrible global events affected their tourism flows and the manner and pace of their recovery. We note that tourism in the U.S. has not fully recovered from 9/11 and other international shocks; indeed recovery of international travel to the U.S. may be a long way off. By contrast, Hawaii tourism is enjoying robust growth in the aftermath of 9/11 as growth in tourist arrivals from the U.S. mainland has more than offset declines in Japanese and other international visitors. We suggest that Hawaiis current tourism boom is in part explained by the diversion of U.S. travel from foreign travel. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of vector error correction models to generate dynamic visitor forecasts which we use to ascertain whether tourism in Hawaii has fully recovered from 9/11 and other terrible international events. The paper considers policy options for facilitating the recovery of international tourism to the U.S.Tourism, Terrorism, Impact, Recovery

Adaptive segmenting of non-stationary signals

Many data compression techniques rely on the low entropy and/or the large degree of autocorrelation exhibited by stationary signals. In non-stationary signals, however, these characteristics are not constant, resulting in reduced data compression efficiency. An adaptive scheme is developed that divides non-stationary signals into smaller locally stationary segments, thereby improving overall efficiency. Two principal issues arise in implementing this procedure. The first is practical; an exhaustive search of all possible segmentations is in general computationally prohibitive. The concept of dynamic programming is applied to reduce the expense of such a search. The second involves choosing a cost function that is appropriate for a particular compression method. Two cost functions are employed here, one based on entropy and the other on correlation. It is shown that by using an appropriate cost function, an adaptively segmented signal offers better data compression efficiency than an unsegmented or arbitrarily segmented signal

The China's Rise as an International Trading Power

This paper undertakes a detailed review of the policies that have shaped China's explosion of a global supply of exports, and examines long trend statistics on the evolution of China's trading partners and the goods it trades in the post-reform period. This review notes common characteristics in China's trade experience with those of earlier successful export-based economies of East Asia, such as South Korea and Japan. The survey finds that China's pattern of trade and trading partners are similar to those of more market-based Asian economies, but that the Chinese economy's orientation toward foreign trade is considerably greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. The authors argue that China still has a long way to go in terms of its export boom, especially if compared to the experiences of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. This suggests that China is on track to become one of the world's most formidable trading powers and its export policies and export performance will exert increasing influence on how the global trade regime evolves in the future.

The Impact of Approved Destination Status on Chinese Travel Abroad: An Economic Analysis

Since the early 1990s China’s government has negotiated Approved Destination Status (ADS) with 120 countries. The agreements allow government-approved travel agencies to market group tours and obtain visas in bulk to ADS destinations. We apply a gravity model framework to analyze how ADS has affected Chinese outbound tourist travel from China using Chinese visitor arrivals data from 61 main foreign destinations of mainland Chinese tourists (which account for vast majority of international departures from China) from 1995 to 2005. Fixed effects estimates indicate ADS resulted in significant increases in arrivals from China (averaging 52 percent over three years). We also find evidence of travel diversion as more countries received ADS.China Outbound Travel, Approved Destination Status, Gravity Model, Tourism, International Agreements, Travel Liberalization

High-Temperature Solid Lubricant Coating

NASA PS400 is a solid lubricant coating invented for high-temperature tribological applications. This plasma-sprayed coating is a variant of the previously patented PS304 coating, and has been formulated to provide higher density, smoother surface finish, and better dimensional stability. This innovation is a new composite material that provides a means to reduce friction and wear in mechanical components. PS400 is a blend of a nickel-molybdenum binder, chrome oxide hardener, silver lubricant, and barium fluoride/calcium fluoride eutectic lubricant that can either be sprayed or deposited by other means, such as powder metallurgy. The resulting composite material is then finished by grinding and polishing to produce a smooth, self-lubricating surface