Indicators of Economic Activity: A Review

This paper reviews the performance of a selection of indicators that are in common use in analysing the business cycle. The analysis proceeds in two stages, looking first at relationships between major expenditure aggregates and GDP, and then looking at the extent to which partial indicators contain useful leading information about particular expenditure aggregates. Results on the first issue show a tendency for housing activity to lead the cycle, while construction and consumption expenditure probably lag. However, these relationships are not very reliable, in the sense that timing can vary significantly from cycle to cycle. On the second issue, the usefulness of a number of partial indicators is confirmed. The most significant in providing leading information are probably local government building approvals and the ANZ job vacancies series.

The Role of Superannuation in the Financial Sector and in Aggregate Saving: A Review of Recent Trends

Assets with superannuation funds represented the fastest growing of the major components of household wealth during the 1980s. This paper reviews the causes of that growth, and its effects on private saving and on the pattern of financial intermediation. It is found that the growth of superannuation funds during this period was mainly a result of the funds’ high earnings rates; there was relatively little change in the net rate of new contributions by members. This fact makes it hard to argue that growth of the superannuation sector came at the expense of other types of financial intermediaries. The relative stability of members’ contributions also helps to explain why superannuation has not yet had a noticeable effect on the level of private saving.

The role of human movement kinematics in internal state inference

The kinematics of our movements reflect our internal (mental and affective) states. This thesis tests the hypothesis that these kinematic signals contribute to judgments about others’ internal states through models based on our own actions. Chapter 1 details the theoretical background and previous literature that motivates this hypothesis. Chapter 2 (typical adults) and 3 (typical adolescents) test the hypothesis that we use models of our own action kinematics to make judgments about others’ affective states. Both experiments support the hypothesis by demonstrating that differences in one’s own typical action kinematics determine the perceived intensity of affective states of observed point-light walkers. Chapters 4, 5, and 6 examine the hypothesis that atypical movement kinematics in autism spectrum disorder (autism) contribute to social communication difficulties. Chapters 4 and 5 measure two basic skills required to make internal state judgments from observing others’ actions: visual time perception and sensitivity to kinematic signals that describe ‘natural’ motion. Both studies find no deficits in the autism group compared to the typically developed group – and some enhanced abilities – suggesting that these basic skills are intact. However, Chapter 6 demonstrates that typically developed individuals are impaired at reading mental states from autistic actions, suggesting that atypical movement kinematics may be partly contributing to bi-directional communicative difficulties experienced between individuals with autism and their typical peers. Chapter 7 investigates whether differences in movement kinematics early in development are associated with later social skills in a group of infants at high- or low-risk of developing autism. Indeed, movement kinematics at 10 months of age predicts social abilities at 14 months of age, demonstrating the value of kinematic markers for predicting social functioning and possibly disorder. Chapter 8 summarises the studies presented in this thesis, which show support for the hypothesis that we judge others’ internal states through models based on our own actions

Does Drinking Location Matter? Profiles of Risky Single-Occasion Drinking by Location and Alcohol-Related Harm among Young Men.

In adolescents and young adults, acute consequences like injuries account for a substantial proportion of alcohol-related harm, especially in risky single-occasion (RSO) drinkers. The primary aim of the study was to characterize different drinking profiles in RSO drinkers according to drinking locations and their relationship to negative, alcohol-related consequences. The sample consisted of 2746 young men from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors who had reported drinking six or more drinks on a single-occasion at least monthly over the preceding 12 months. Principal component analysis on the frequency and amount of drinking at 11 different locations was conducted, and 2 distinguishable components emerged: a non-party-dimension (loading high on theater/cinema, sport clubs, other clubs/societies, restaurants, and sport events) and a party-dimension (loading high on someone else's home, pubs/bars, discos/nightclubs, outdoor public places, special events, and home). Differential impacts of drinking location profiles were observed on severe negative alcohol-related consequences (SAC). Relative to those classified as low or intermediate in both dimensions, no significant difference experiencing SAC was found among those who were classified as high in the non-party-dimension only. However, those who were classified as high in the party-dimension alone or in both dimensions were more likely to experience SAC. These differential effects remained after adjusting for alcohol consumption (volume and risky single-occasion drinking), personality traits, and peer-influence [adjusted OR = 0.83 (0.68-1.02), 1.57 (1.27-1.96), and 1.72 (1.23-2.41), respectively], indicating independent effects of drinking location on SAC. The inclusion of sociodemographic factors did not alter this association. The fact that this cluster of party-dimension locations seems to predispose young men to experiencing SAC has important implications for alcohol control policies

The Northeast Region Standing Committee on Woodland Caribou (NERSC): an example of a co-operative management partnership

This paper describes the history and current status of NERSC (Northeast Region Standing Committee on Woodland Caribou), a government/industry partnership established to address issues related to industrial development and the conservation of woodland caribou {Rangifer tarandus caribou) in northeastern Alberta. In mid 1991, NERSC was established with broad participation from the oil and gas and forestry industries and relevant government agencies. Its primary role has been as an advisory body to the government through the regional environmental resource management committee. Since its inception, it has become an open forum for the annual review of industrial operating guidelines based on adaptive management. NERSC has been highly successful at attracting financial support from various sponsors and co-ordinating appropriate research and monitoring programs. Key achievements include: 1) greatly enhanced understanding of problems, issues and positions among its diverse membership related to resource development and caribou management; 2) greatly enhanced delineation of important caribou habitats, and improved understanding of population status and limiting factors; 3) modified and more effective land use strategies; and 4) a recognized collaborative partnership

Issues in Modelling Monetary Policy

This paper reviews issues in the econometric modelling of monetary policy in the light of recent experience and research. Two main sets of issues are covered: first, the operation of policy including the specification of the instrument and objectives; and second, the transmission of monetary policy effects to the wider economy. There is also a discussion of the inherent limitations on the ability to quantify the role of monetary policy in econometric models.