More people, more trees: A reversal of deforestation trends in Southern Ethiopia

Despite global commitments to forest restoration, evidence of the pathways through which restoration creates social and ecological benefits remains limited. The objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence to generate insights on the relationship between forest cover change and key provisioning ecosystem services and reforestation pathways. In Southern Ethiopia, three zones along a gradient of decreasing land cover complexity and tree cover were examined. The land cover change was assessed using satellite remote sensing and complemented ground‐based tree inventory. Perceptions of land cover and ecosystem services change and farmer responses were evaluated through three Participatory Rural Appraisals and eight Focus Group Discussions. Since the 1970s, a landscape shift from a forest‐grassland to a cropland mosaic was associated with increased food production, improved food security, and higher incomes. However, this shift also coincided with reductions in livestock, construction materials, fuelwood and water availability, prompting reforestation efforts designed to recover some of these lost ecosystem services. In particular, some households established Eucalyptus woodlots and encouraged natural regeneration. Natural trees, Eucalyptus woodlots, Ensete plantations (a type of plantain), and grasslands were positively associated with homestead proximity; thus, homestead establishment resulting from population increase in this predominately agricultural landscape appeared to foster a viable forest restoration pathway—that is, 'more people, more trees'. This is a reforestation pathway not previously described in the literature. A return to a more diverse agricultural landscape mosaic provided more secure and diversified income sources along with better provisioning of construction materials, fuelwood, and higher livestock numbers

Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds

Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat suitability of the boreal forest for many wildlife species. Boreal birds are susceptible to both direct and indirect effects of climate change, and several studies have predicted northward shifts in species distributions as temperatures become warmer. We forecasted spatially-explicit changes in the densities of 72 boreal landbird species using integrated climate change projections and a forest dynamics model in the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories (NT), Canada, over the 2011–2091 horizon. We 1) identified ''winner,'' ''loser,'' and ''bellringer'' species over short (2031) and long-term (2091) forecasts, 2) mapped landbird range and density changes under three contrasting Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and 3) quantify differences in landbird density predictions across a latitudinal gradient. Species that showed a moderate increase or decrease in their predicted abundance were considered ''winners'' and ''losers,'' respectively. Species that showed a marked increase or decrease – a doubling or halving – of their predicted abundance in all three GCMs, were termed ''bellringers''. From 2011–2031, only 2/72 (2.8%) were considered winners, and 3/72 (4.2%) were losers. From 2011–2091, the abundance of more species was predicted to change: 26/72 (36.1%) were winners, and 10/72 species (13.9%) were losers. Four species were considered bellringers: Gray-cheeked Thrush, White-crowned Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, and American Tree Sparrow. Overall, projected range shifts were strongly oriented along a southeast-to-northwest axis. Shifts to the north and south were evenly distributed among all three GCMs. Our results suggest that future climate-mitigated distribution shifts and population declines of boreal landbirds will require targeted conservation actions. They also highlight the importance of the NT as a potential refugium for many boreal-breeding landbird species in Canada