A fuzzy decision‐making approach for portfolio management with direct real estate investment

This study incorporated expert knowledge into the classical quadratic programming approach, i.e., Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), through fuzzy set theory; in obtaining portfolio return optimization involving direct real estate investment. Two fuzzy mathematical programming models were uniquely specified and estimated in this study, namely, Zimmer‐mann's (2001) fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA) flexible programming model and Ramik and Rimanek's (1985) FTAA robust programming model. These approaches try to overcome the drawbacks of traditional asset allocation models by including expert adjustment in the presence of imprecise information. The findings suggest that the fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA Flexible Model), with the inclusion of expert judgments which contain information usually not found in historical data, is able to produce a portfolio just as efficient as traditional asset allocation models while minimizing the potential issues due to imprecision and vagueness of information. Meanwhile, the FTAA Robust Model proffers a more evenly‐distributed, yet with higher risks and lower returns, portfolio. Aside from the lack of emphasis on portfolio risks minimization, one reason attributed to such anomaly is the low level of returns of high‐risk stocks that are not selected by MPT and FTAA Flexible Models. It results in a unique situation where portfolio diversification does not necessarily guarantee an efficient investment decision. Santruka Šis tyrimas itraukia ekspertines žinias i klasikine kvadratinio programavimo metodika, pavyzdžiui, moderniaja portfelio valdymo teorija, per neapibrežtuju aibiu teorija, siekiant optimizuoti portfelio graža, apimant tiesiogines nekilnojamojo turto investicijas. Šiame tyrime išsamiai aprašomi ir ivertinami du neapibrežtojo matematinio programavimo modeliai. Tai Zimmermann (2001) neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo lankstusis programavimo modelis ir Ramik bei Rimanek (1985) neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo robustinis programavimo modelis. Juos taikant bandoma pašalinti tradiciniu aktyvu paskirstymo metodu trūkumus itraukiant ekspertu siūlomus pakeitimus nesant tikslios informacijos. Nustatyta, kad neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymas (neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo lankstusis programavimo modelis) kartu su ekspertu vertinimais, paprastai apimančiais informacija, kurios negalima rasti tarp istoriniu duomenu, leidžia sudaryti toki pati efektyvu portfeli, kaip ir tradiciniai aktyvu paskirstymo modeliai, tačiau minimizuojant potencialius nesutarimus, kuriu atsiranda del netikslios ir neapibrežtos informacijos. Neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo robustinis programavimo modelis siūlo tolygiau paskirstyta, tačiau rizikingesni ir ne toki pelninga portfeli. Be portfelio rizikos minimizavimo trūkumo, dar viena priežastis, priskiriama prie šios anomalijos, yra maža dideles rizikos akciju graža, kuri nera pasirenkama moderniojoje portfelio valdymo teorijoje ir neapibrežtuju aktyvu paskirstymo lanksčiuosiuose programavimo modeliuose. Kaip rezultatas gaunama unikali situacija, kai portfelio diversifikavimas nebūtinai garantuoja efektyvu investavimo sprendima. First Publish Online: 18 Oct 201

Housing market dynamics under a pegged exchange rate – a study of Hong Kong

This study explores the major determinants of prices and rents of properties in the mass housing market and in the luxury housing market of Hong Kong. The findings show that property price (and rental) dynamics are primarily driven by demand factors, rather than by housing supply. While macroeconomic factors and the provision of subsidized homeownership, to varying degrees, influence housing prices and/or rents, it is the result of U.S. monetary policy which has directly (through changes in money supply) and indirectly (through the wealth effect from a bullish stock market fuelled by unconventional monetary policy such as Quantitative Easing (QE) triggered the current affordability issue. Some policy implications with reference to recent U.S. monetary policy developments as well as to the Linked Exchange Rate System between Hong Kong Dollar and U.S. Dollar are then discussed

Kotaka’s model in land acquisition for infrastructure provision in Malaysia

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explain the definition of adequate compensation from the viewpoints of affected landowners, property valuers and land administrators using Kotaka’s Model with special application in Kedah, Malaysia. The fact is that land is a factor of production and must be made available for the provision of infrastructure. In acquiring land for real estate development, compensation must be paid to the affected landowners. An adequate compensation in land acquisition is referred to the open market value of the land taken plus its consequences including severance, injurious affection and disturbances. Design/methodology/approach –Questionnaires are distributed to the affected 40 landowners, ten property valuers and six land administrators of randomly selected land acquisition projects for public infrastructure land development in the case study areas. Data gathered are analyzed using qualitative descriptive analysis to identify elements of dissatisfactions of landowners upon compensation offered to them. Findings – The findings show that there are elements of dissatisfactions to the affected landowners by way of the value of land taken, severances, injurious affections, disturbances, delivery of notices and technique of valuation. These dissatisfactions reflect the amount of adequate compensation to the affected landowners and cross-examined with property valuers and land administrators. Originality/value – The outcome of the paper will assist landowners, public, and private valuers, land administrators and other stakeholders to understand the elements of dissatisfactions in estimating adequate compensation in land acquisition for infrastructure provision. Otherwise, the affected landowners may refuse to be apart from their lands, hence, restrict the flow of land supply for real estate development. This indicates that Kotaka’s Model offers an explanatory power to understand the elements of adequate compensation in land acquisition for infrastructure provision and real estate development

Real estate issues in Asia: An emerging paradigm

„Real estate issues in Asia: An emerging paradigm" International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 8(2), p. 59-61 First Published online: 18 Oct 201

Price discovery of property markets in Shenzhen and Hong Kong

Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while being interrelated in many aspects, have encountered different types of demand shocks throughout the past decade. This is likely due to disparities in market conditions and degrees of government regulations. In the light of such differences in property price trends, this research first investigates the relationships between housing prices and market fundamentals for both cities; and then it explores whether a housing price bubble existed for them in 2006. The results indicate that housing prices seem to have interacted abnormally with market fundamentals in recent years, especially for Shenzhen. In addition, while Shenzhen’s housing prices are mainly explained by previous housing prices and personal income, most economic indicators explain Hong Kong’s housing prices well. With regard to price bubbles, a puny bubble which amounts to as much as 4.5% of the housing price was formed in Shenzhen in 2006. In the meantime, the housing price bubble for Hong Kong had been diminished. Though currently not at dangerous levels, housing price bubbles should be taken with caution especially in today’s China, characterized by overinvestment and rapid policy changes.Price, Granger causality, generalized impulse response, property market, variance decomposition,

The dynamics of Hong Kong's office rental market

Forecasting office rents is among the most researched topics in real estate study. However, there are still heated debates on how predictions can be best done. This study provides a generator approach, on the basis of both system dynamics and econometric modeling. The findings suggest that the office rental values in Hong Kong appear to be more volatile and uncertain under better economic conditions, likely due to both the supply side of the property market being over‐optimistic of economic trends and the development lags and adjustment cost, under the influence of the current land policies in Hong Kong, are the main issues behind this phenomenon. In order to minimize the uncertainties on the office leasing market, the government should relax the approval procedures concerning changing land use, and the subsequent rearrangements of premium payment. Further, the current policies on land sales need to be revised, especially the application list system. Those measures could reduce the time and transaction cost incurred, thus leading to more timely response to demand changes over time. Honkongo biurų nuomos rinkos dinamika Santruka Biurų nuomos prognozės yra tarp dažniausiai nagrinėjamų nekilnojamo turto tyrimų temų. Tačiau dėl geriausio prognozavimo metodo vis dar vyksta karšti debatai. Šiame straipsnyje pateikiamas generatoriaus metodas, pagrįstas sistemos dinamika ir ekonometriniu modeliavimu. Išvados rodo, kad Honkonge biurų nuomos vertės esti labiau kintamos ir neapibrėžtos, kai ekonominės sąlygos yra geresnės. Taip yra greičiausiai dėl to, kad turto rinkoje veikiantys tiekėjai pernelyg optimistiškai žiūri į ekonomines tendencijas, kad vėluoja plėtra ir reguliavimo sąnaudos, veikiamos dabartinės krašto politikos Honkonge. Tai yra pagrindinės su šiuo reiškiniu susijusios temos. Norėdama sumažinti biurų nuomos rinkos neapibrėžtumą, vyriausybė turėtų supaprastinti patvirtinimo procedūras, susijusias su kintančia žemės paskirtimi, bei su tuo susijusius įmokų mokėjimo pertvarkymus. Be to, reikėtų pakoreguoti esamą prekybos žeme politiką, ypač sklypų sarašų sistemą. Šios priemonės galetų sumažinti laiką ir patiriamas transakcijų išlaidas, taip paskatindamos greitesnę reakciją į paklausos pokyčius, laikui begant