Spatial Scenarios and the Lisbon Strategy

The European Union is changing significantly. It has recently been enlarged by 10 new Member States, decision-making about the European Constitution is going on, and it has set itself the target of becoming the most competitive economy in the world (Lisbon Strategy). The scenarios explore in an integrated way the territorial impacts of future changes in the economy, transport, rural development, environment, and other policy fields. They do not only concentrate on the territorial impacts of the trends and driving forces but also of the relevant EU Policies. The scenarios throw a light on the effectiveness of EU Policies and the synergies as well as conflicts they generate. By doing this they provide important insights in the conditions under which these trends, driving forces and policies will favour a balanced and polycentric territory and territorial cohesion within the enlarging European Union. These insights are relevant for recommendations on possible adjustments and/or changes of EU Policies.

BEYOND HEURISTICS: APPLYING SCENARIOS TO EUROPEAN TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT

Scenarios, unlike forecasts or prognoses, do not seek to predict future events. Instead, the intent is to understand how the future is produced by examining a number of possible developmental pathways. These pathways are created by adjusting a limited number of variables within a particular cause-effect chain of events. The insights generated by the scenario method not only produce knowledge about driving forces but also regarding the capacity to change the future. A scenario study carried out by the ESPON programme on the territorial development of Europe has not only cast light on how the spatial structure of Europe is likely to evolve, and identified a number of challenges which any future spatial policy will need to address. These insights have since made their way into a number of important policy documents, including the Territorial Agenda. Copyright (c) 2008 by the Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG.

Territorial Scenarios for Europe

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Gaming the future of an urban network

Scenario and gaming techniques have a number of complementary characteristics. In this article, the design and evaluation of a gaming-scenario experiment for the exploration of development planning in an urban network in the Netherlands is presented. Two gaming sessions were held using two long-term scenarios (2030) as varying contexts. The combined gaming-scenario approach made it possible to evaluate the impact of external future developments and trends on the administrative and spatial development. Evaluation results of the gaming experiment indicate that the gaming-scenario approach generated new and critical insights on development planning and the future of the urban network. Through the game, the principal, the game leaders but most of all the stakeholder-participants experienced and realized that the management of development planning in urban networks is a very difficult task and is full of pitfalls

The Urban Network Game: A Simulation of the Future of Joint City Interests

In a thriving, densely populated and urbanized country like the Netherlands, space is at a premium. With the steady economic growth of the 1990s and the construction and expansion of homes, business parks and infrastructure, the available space and the environment are coming under increasing pressure. Major changes are also taking place on an administrative level in the Netherlands. In some cases, influential new joint ventures are formed between public, private, and social parties (Frieling 2000). The social and administrative dynamic, and the tension that this creates in relation to spatial quality requirements, is turning into a major challenge for spatial policy. Numerous advisory bodies and policymakers are therefore advocating a spatial development policy (WRR 1998) or development planning (VROM 2001, 2002). Development planning is the opposite of admittance planning and provides increased scope for the initiatives and investments of local governments and private and social parties. Instead of passively resisting activities and exhibiting too little flexibility, governments must aim at actively entering into partnerships with other governments, the business sector, and social organizations. Together, they must develop and realize interrelated, creative concepts, projects, and programs (WRR 1998; Healey 2000;Teisman 1997;VROM Council 2001). According to the Netherlands' Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning, and the Environment (VROM 2002), development planning requires: "active intervention by means of investments made by both public and private parties. The State shall then provide policy frameworks for the investments and harmonize them with each other. This provides scope for the initiatives of lower governments, market parties, and social organizations and supports them." Innovation, future orientation, integral concepts, stakeholder planning and new ways of public private financing, and cooperation are some of the relevant characteristics ascribed to development planning. However, the above description shows that development planning may be an interesting concept but it is also very abstract and ambiguous. Moreover, the real question is how development planning works in practice and whether it actually differs from admittance planning. How can such notions as stakeholder planning, future orientation, and innovation be realized in a region? How do spatial investments, innovation, and integral concepts come about? Does development planning really result in spatial and administrative innovation, as one would expect in theory? What is clear, however, is that development planning will have to be tackled by governments and private and social parties on a regional/provincial level. Against this background, the Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB), established on 1 January 2002, asked the Delft University of Technology to design a simulation game in which the concept of development planning can be tested in a safe environment (Mayer and Veeneman 2002; Mayer et al. 2004)

Vier scenario’s voor de inrichting van Nederland in 2050 : Ruimtelijke Verkenning 2023

In de Ruimtelijke Verkenning 2023 heeft het PBL scenario’s ontwikkeld voor de inrichting van Nederland in 2050. In dit hoofdrapport worden vier mogelijke ruimtelijke toekomsten gepresenteerd. Dat zijn: Mondiaal Ondernemend (een toekomstscenario waarin grote bedrijven de lead hebben), Snelle Wereld (de nog verder toegenomen digitalisering doet afstanden verdwijnen), Groen Land (veel ruimte voor de natuur) en Regionaal Geworteld (burgers nemen het initiatief in hun eigen leefomgeving). Voor elk scenario zijn op basis van ruimtelijke modellering en ontwerpend onderzoek gedetailleerde kaarten van het bijbehorende Nederland van 2050 gemaakt. Deze scenariokaarten brengen in beeld welke gevolgen verschillende keuzes hebben

Perspectives on the future of nature in Europe: storylines and visualisations : background report

Throughout Europe, people experience and value nature in various ways, but they also experience the decline in biological diversity. Although successes have been achieved, nature policies have not been effective in all respects. Halting biodiversity loss and restoring ecological systems in the EU requires substantial action, in addition to current measures implemented under the EU Birds and Habitats Directives. More effective implementation, more coherence with other policies and greater engagement by other sectors and the public are needed. A closer connection between the ways in which people experience and value nature and nature policy may enhance their engagement in nature-related efforts. A more fundamental reflection on nature policies may be helpful. This has been done by PBL in its Nature Outlook study, which presents alternative ‘perspectives’ on the future of nature in the European Union. The synthesis report European nature in the plural1 is primarily intended to provide inspiration for current strategic discussions on EU policies that are related to nature beyond 2020, whereas the current report provides complete versions of the storylines and visualisations of the perspectives. Thereby, it enables policymakers and stakeholders to derive more specific insights and ideas from the perspectives. The report may be used to generate insights for policies, facilitate communication and boost engagement in nature among other sectors and citizens. In order to stimulate this, the report explains how policymakers and stakeholders could use the perspectives to create joint visions. The Nature Outlook project consists of a baseline, a trend scenario, four perspectives and several policy messages. These components have been constructed not only from literature review and visualisations, but also by using the results from a philosophers’ dialogue on the relationships between people and nature in Europe, as well as several stakeholder dialogues on the future of nature

New perspectives for urbanizing deltas : a complex adaptive systems approach to planning and design : Integrated Planning and Design in the Delta (IPDD)

The delta region between Rotterdam and Antwerp is a prime example of an area where spatial developments face increasing complexity. Local initiatives for developing urban expansions, recreation areas, nature and industrial complexes must harmonize with measures such as adequate flood protection, sufficient freshwater supply, restoration of ecosystems and large-scale infrastructure over the long term. This complexity demans a new approach to spatial planning and design. This book is the result of a research project that aimed to develop such a new planning practice. The research was carried out in collaboration by a consortium of universities, centres of expertise, and engineering and design firms. The research conceived of the Southwest Delta of the Netherlands as a laboratory for the new approach, which has nonetheless also proven relevant to other regions dealing with a similar level of complexity

New perspectives for urbanizing deltas : a complex adaptive systems approach to planning and design : Integrated Planning and Design in the Delta (IPDD)

The delta region between Rotterdam and Antwerp is a prime example of an area where spatial developments face increasing complexity. Local initiatives for developing urban expansions, recreation areas, nature and industrial complexes must harmonize with measures such as adequate flood protection, sufficient freshwater supply, restoration of ecosystems and large-scale infrastructure over the long term. This complexity demans a new approach to spatial planning and design. This book is the result of a research project that aimed to develop such a new planning practice. The research was carried out in collaboration by a consortium of universities, centres of expertise, and engineering and design firms. The research conceived of the Southwest Delta of the Netherlands as a laboratory for the new approach, which has nonetheless also proven relevant to other regions dealing with a similar level of complexity