Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A continuous quality improvement strategy to strengthen screening practices and facilitate the routine use of intravenous iron for treating anaemia in pregnant and postpartum women in Nigeria: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy-related anaemia is a public health challenge across Africa. Over 50% of pregnant women in Africa get diagnosed with this condition, and up to 75% of these are caused by iron deficiency. The condition is a significant contributor to the high maternal deaths across the continent and, in particular, Nigeria, which accounts for about 34% of global maternal deaths. Whereas oral iron is the mainstay treatment for pregnancy-related anaemia in Nigeria, this treatment is not very effective given the slow absorption of the medication, and its gastrointestinal adverse effects which lead to poor compliance by women. Intravenous iron is an alternative therapy which can rapidly replenish iron stores, but fears of anaphylactic reactions, as well as several misconceptions, have inhibited its routine use. Newer and safer intravenous iron formulations, such as ferric carboxymaltose, present an opportunity to overcome some concerns relating to adherence. Routine use of this formulation will, however, require addressing misconceptions and systemic barriers to adoption in the continuum of care of obstetric women from screening to treatment. This study aims to test the options to strengthen routine screening for anaemia during and immediately after pregnancy, as well as evaluate and improve conditions necessary to deliver ferric carboxymaltose to pregnant and postpartum women with moderate to severe anaemia. METHODS: This study will be conducted in a cluster of six health facilities in Lagos State, Nigeria. The study will employ continuous quality improvement through the Diagnose-Intervene-Verify-Adjust framework and Tanahashi's model for health system evaluation to identify and improve systemic bottlenecks to the adoption and implementation of the intervention. Participatory Action Research will be employed to engage health system actors, health services users, and other stakeholders to facilitate change. Evaluation will be guided by the consolidated framework for implementation research and the normalisation process theory. DISCUSSION: We expect the study to evolve transferable knowledge on barriers and facilitators to the routine use of intravenous iron that will inform scale-up across Nigeria, as well as the adoption of the intervention and strategies in other countries across Africa

Prevalence and Predictors of Generalized Anxiety Disorder Symptoms in Residents of Fort McMurray Five Years after the Devastating Wildfires

Background: Natural disasters adversely impact individuals living in places where they occur, resulting in emotional distress. The wildfire that occurred in Fort McMurray (FMM), Alberta in 2016 is no different. Objective: This study aims to identify the prevalence and predictors of Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) symptoms in residents of FMM five years after the devastating wildfires. Methods: Data for the study were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted online from the 24th of April to the 2nd of June 2021. A validated instrument, the GAD-7 scale, was used to collect information on anxiety. Results: This study involved 186 residents of FMM, of which the majority were females (85.5%), employed (94.1%), working at school boards (50.0%), and were either married, cohabiting, or partnered (71.0%). The prevalence of likely GAD among the study sample was 42.5%. Unemployed respondents were seventeen times more likely to develop GAD symptoms (OR = 16.62; 95% C.I. 1.23–223.67) while respondents who would like to receive mental health counseling were five times more likely to experience GAD symptoms (OR = 5.35; 95% C.I. 2.03–14.15). Respondents who suffered a loss of property because of the wildfire were two times more likely to develop GAD symptoms (OR = 2.36; 95% C.I. 1.01–22.62). Conclusion: Policymakers may mitigate GAD symptoms, particularly after natural disasters, by making long-term mental health counseling available and a key component of post-disaster management, and by investing in the social capital of the people to build resilience and support to deal with the post-disaster mental health effects

Prevalence and Predictors of Generalized Anxiety Disorder Symptoms in Residents of Fort McMurray Five Years after the Devastating Wildfires

Background: Natural disasters adversely impact individuals living in places where they occur, resulting in emotional distress. The wildfire that occurred in Fort McMurray (FMM), Alberta in 2016 is no different. Objective: This study aims to identify the prevalence and predictors of Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) symptoms in residents of FMM five years after the devastating wildfires. Methods: Data for the study were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted online from the 24th of April to the 2nd of June 2021. A validated instrument, the GAD-7 scale, was used to collect information on anxiety. Results: This study involved 186 residents of FMM, of which the majority were females (85.5%), employed (94.1%), working at school boards (50.0%), and were either married, cohabiting, or partnered (71.0%). The prevalence of likely GAD among the study sample was 42.5%. Unemployed respondents were seventeen times more likely to develop GAD symptoms (OR = 16.62; 95% C.I. 1.23–223.67) while respondents who would like to receive mental health counseling were five times more likely to experience GAD symptoms (OR = 5.35; 95% C.I. 2.03–14.15). Respondents who suffered a loss of property because of the wildfire were two times more likely to develop GAD symptoms (OR = 2.36; 95% C.I. 1.01–22.62). Conclusion: Policymakers may mitigate GAD symptoms, particularly after natural disasters, by making long-term mental health counseling available and a key component of post-disaster management, and by investing in the social capital of the people to build resilience and support to deal with the post-disaster mental health effects

Apparent Lack of Benefit of Combining Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation with Internet-Delivered Cognitive Behavior Therapy for the Treatment of Resistant Depression: Patient-Centered Randomized Controlled Pilot Trial

Background: Treatment-resistant depression (TRD) is considered one of the major clinical challenges in the field of psychiatry. An estimated 44% of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) do not respond to two consecutive antidepressant therapies, and 33% do not respond to up to four antidepressants. Over 15% of all patients with MDD remain refractory to any treatment intervention. rTMS is considered a treatment option for patients with TRD. Likewise, iCBT is evidence-based, symptom-focused psychotherapy recommended for the treatment of TRD. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the initial comparative clinical effectiveness of rTMS treatment with and without iCBT as an innovative intervention for the treatment of participants diagnosed with TRD. Methods: This study is a prospective two-arm randomized controlled trial. Overall, 78 participants diagnosed with TRD were randomized to one of two treatment interventions: rTMS sessions alone and rTMS sessions plus iCBT. Participants in each group were made to complete evaluation measures at baseline, and 6 weeks (discharge) from treatment. The primary outcome measure was baseline to six weeks change in mean score for the 17-item Hamilton depression rating scale (HAMD-17). Secondary outcomes included mean baseline to six-week changes in the Columbia suicide severity rating scale (CSSRS) for the rate of suicidal ideations, the QIDS-SR16 for subjective depression, and the EQ-5D-5L to assess the quality of health in participants. Results: A majority of the participants were females 50 (64.1%), aged ≥ 40 39 (50.0%), and had college/university education 54 (73.0%). After adjusting for the baseline scores, the study failed to find a significant difference in the changes in mean scores for participants from baseline to six weeks between the two interventions under study on the HAMD-17 scale: F (1, 53) = 0.15, p = 0.70, partial eta squared = 0.003, CSSRS; F (1, 56) = 0.04 p = 0.85, partial eta squared = 0.001, QIDS-SR16 scale; F (1, 53) = 0.04 p = 0.61, partial eta squared = 0.005, and EQ-5D-VAS; F (1, 51) = 0.46 p = 0.50, and partial eta squared = 0.009. However, there was a significant reduction in means scores at week six compared to baseline scores for the combined study population on the HAMD-17 scale (42%), CSSRS (41%), QIDS-SR16 scale (35%), and EQ-VAS scale (62%). Conclusion: This study did not find that combined treatment of TRD with rTMS + iCBT (unguided) was superior to treatment with rTMS alone. Our findings do not support the use of combined treatment of rTMS + iCBT for the management of TRD disorders

The cirrhosis care Alberta (CCAB) protocol: implementing an evidence-based best practice order set for the management of liver cirrhosis - a hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation trial

Abstract Background Liver cirrhosis is a leading cause of morbidity, premature mortality and acute care utilization in patients with digestive disease. In the province of Alberta, hospital readmission rates for patients with cirrhosis are estimated at 44% at 90 days. For hospitalized patients, multiple care gaps exist, the most notable stemming from i) the lack of a structured approach to best practice care for cirrhosis complications, ii) the lack of a structured approach to broader health needs and iii) suboptimal preparation for transition of care into the community. Cirrhosis Care Alberta (CCAB) is a 4-year multi-component pragmatic trial which aims to address these gaps. The proposed intervention is initiated at the time of hospitalization through implementation of a clinical information system embedded electronic order set for delivering evidence-based best practices under real-world conditions. The overarching objective of the CCAB trial is to demonstrate effectiveness and implementation feasibility for use of the order set in routine patient care within eight hospital sites in Alberta. Methods A mixed methods hybrid type I effectiveness-implementation design will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the order set intervention. The primary outcome is a reduction in 90-day cumulative length of stay. Implementation outcomes such as reach, adoption, fidelity and maintenance will also be evaluated alongside other patient and service outcomes such as readmission rates, quality of care and cost-effectiveness. This theory-based trial will be guided by Normalization Process Theory, Consolidated Framework on Implementation Research (CFIR) and the Reach-Effectiveness-Adoption-Implementation-Maintenance (RE-AIM) Framework. Discussion The CCAB project is unique in its breadth, both in the comprehensiveness of the multi-component order set and also for the breadth of its roll-out. Lessons learned will ultimately inform the feasibility and effectiveness of this approach in “real-world” conditions as well as adoption and adaptation of these best practices within the rest of Alberta, other provinces in Canada, and beyond. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04149223, November 4, 2019

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic