Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010-2030

Background Although diabetes is one of the most costly and rapidly increasing serious chronic diseases worldwide, the optimal mix of strategies to reduce diabetes prevalence has not been determined. Methods Using a dynamic model that incorporates national data on diabetes prevalence and incidence, migration, mortality rates, and intervention effectiveness, we project the effect of five hypothetical prevention policies on future US diabetes rates through 2030: 1) no diabetes prevention strategy; 2) a “high-risk” strategy, wherein adults with both impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (fasting plasma glucose of 100–124 mg/dl) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-hour post-load glucose of 141–199 mg/dl) receive structured lifestyle intervention; 3) a “moderate-risk” strategy, wherein only adults with IFG are offered structured lifestyle intervention; 4) a “population-wide” strategy, in which the entire population is exposed to broad risk reduction policies; and 5) a “combined” strategy, involving both the moderate-risk and population-wide strategies. We assumed that the moderate- and high-risk strategies reduce the annual diabetes incidence rate in the targeted subpopulations by 12.5% through 2030 and that the population-wide approach would reduce the projected annual diabetes incidence rate by 2% in the entire US population. Results We project that by the year 2030, the combined strategy would prevent 4.6 million incident cases and 3.6 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in diabetes prevalence by 14%. The moderate-risk approach is projected to prevent 4.0 million incident cases, 3.1 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in prevalence by 12%. The high-risk and population approaches attenuate the projected prevalence increases by 5% and 3%, respectively. Even if the most effective strategy is implemented (the combined strategy), our projections indicate that the diabetes prevalence rate would increase by about 65% over the 23 years (i.e., from 12.9% in 2010 to 21.3% in 2030). Conclusions While implementation of appropriate diabetes prevention strategies may slow the rate of increase of the prevalence of diabetes among US adults through 2030, the US diabetes prevalence rate is likely to increase dramatically over the next 20 years. Demand for health care services for people with diabetes complications and diabetes-related disability will continue to grow, and these services will need to be strengthened along with primary diabetes prevention efforts

Susceptibility of adult cat fleas (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) to insecticides and status of insecticide resistance mutations at the Rdl and knockdown resistance loci

This is an Open Access article. © 2015 The Author(s). Published by Springer Berlin Heidelberg.The susceptibility of 12 field-collected isolates and 4 laboratory strains of cat fleas, Ctenocephalides felis was determined by topical application of some of the insecticides used as on-animal therapies to control them. In the tested field-collected flea isolates the LD50 values for fipronil and imidacloprid ranged from 0.09 to 0.35 ng/flea and 0.02 to 0.19 ng/flea, respectively, and were consistent with baseline figures published previously. The extent of variation in response to four pyrethroid insecticides differed between compounds with the LD50 values for deltamethrin ranging from 2.3 to 28.2 ng/flea, etofenprox ranging from 26.7 to 86.7 ng/flea, permethrin ranging from 17.5 to 85.6 ng/flea, and d-phenothrin ranging from 14.5 to 130 ng/flea. A comparison with earlier data for permethrin and deltamethrin implied a level of pyrethroid resistance in all isolates and strains. LD50 values for tetrachlorvinphos ranged from 20.0 to 420.0 ng/flea. The rdl mutation (conferring target-site resistance to cyclodiene insecticides) was present in most field-collected and laboratory strains, but had no discernible effect on responses to fipronil, which acts on the same receptor protein as cyclodienes. The kdr and skdr mutations conferring target-site resistance to pyrethroids but segregated in opposition to one another, precluding the formation of genotypes homozygous for both mutations.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Five years post whiplash injury: Symptoms and psychological factors in recovered versus non-recovered

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few studies have focused on the differences between persons who are recovered after whiplash injury and those who suffer from persistent disability. The primary aim of this study was therefore to examine differences in symptoms, psychological factors and life satisfaction between subjects classified as recovered and those with persistent disability five years after whiplash injury based on the Neck Disability Index (NDI).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A set of questionnaires was answered by 158 persons (75 men, 83 women) to assess disability (NDI), pain intensity (VAS), whiplash-related symptoms (Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire, RPQ), post-traumatic stress (Impact of Event Scale, IES), depression (Beck's depression inventory, BDI) and life satisfaction (LiSat-11).</p> <p>The participants were divided into three groups based on the results of the NDI: recovered (34.8%), mild disability (37.3%) and moderate/severe disability (27.3%).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The moderate/severe group reported significantly higher VAS, BDI and IES scores and lower level of physical health and psychological health compared to the mild and the recovered groups. Less significant differences were reported between the mild and the recovered groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The group with the highest disability score reported most health problems with pain, symptoms, depression, post-traumatic stress and decreased life satisfaction. These findings indicate that classifying these subjects into subgroups based on disability levels makes it possible to optimize the management and treatment after whiplash injury.</p

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.</p

Abundance, rarity and invasion debt among exotic species in a patchy ecosystem

Community assembly through species invasions is a long-term process, for which vital information regarding future trends can be contained in current patterns. Using comparative analyses of native and exotic plant assemblages from meadow patches on islands in British Columbia, Canada, we examined multiple lines of evidence for ‘invasion debt’, a latent expansion of exotic species populations. We show that: (1) short-dispersing species are underrepresented compared to their long-dispersing counterparts in exotic species only; (2) among species that are invasive elsewhere in North America, a greater proportion of long dispersers are common in the study area and a greater proportion of short dispersers are rare; and (3) time since arrival in the study region is positively related to number of occurrences in exotic species. In addition, we show that a suite of exotic species possesses the facility of rapid long-distance dispersal and ability to establish viable populations on even the most isolated and least disturbed patches. While some highly-dispersive exotic species can rapidly colonize new areas, short dispersers appear to exhibit invasion debt, with their potential distributions only being realized in the long term. Removing or even reducing populations of many rapid colonizers could be extremely difficult; however, for species exhibiting patterns most consistent with invasion debt, an opportunity exists for monitoring and removal to help reduce potential competition with native species

A genome-wide SNP-association study confirms a sequence variant (g.66493737C>T) in the equine myostatin (MSTN) gene as the most powerful predictor of optimum racing distance for Thoroughbred racehorses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Thoroughbred horses have been selected for traits contributing to speed and stamina for centuries. It is widely recognized that inherited variation in physical and physiological characteristics is responsible for variation in individual aptitude for race distance, and that muscle phenotypes in particular are important.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A genome-wide SNP-association study for optimum racing distance was performed using the EquineSNP50 Bead Chip genotyping array in a cohort of <it>n </it>= 118 elite Thoroughbred racehorses divergent for race distance aptitude. In a cohort-based association test we evaluated genotypic variation at 40,977 SNPs between horses suited to short distance (≤ 8 f) and middle-long distance (> 8 f) races. The most significant SNP was located on chromosome 18: BIEC2-417495 ~690 kb from the gene encoding myostatin (<it>MSTN</it>) [<it>P</it>_unadj.= 6.96 × 10^-6]. Considering best race distance as a quantitative phenotype, a peak of association on chromosome 18 (chr18:65809482-67545806) comprising eight SNPs encompassing a 1.7 Mb region was observed. Again, similar to the cohort-based analysis, the most significant SNP was BIEC2-417495 (<it>P</it>_unadj.= 1.61 × 10^-9; <it>P</it>_Bonf.= 6.58 × 10^-5). In a candidate gene study we have previously reported a SNP (g.66493737C>T) in <it>MSTN </it>associated with best race distance in Thoroughbreds; however, its functional and genome-wide relevance were uncertain. Additional re-sequencing in the flanking regions of the <it>MSTN </it>gene revealed four novel 3' UTR SNPs and a 227 bp SINE insertion polymorphism in the 5' UTR promoter sequence. Linkage disequilibrium was highest between g.66493737C>T and BIEC2-417495 (<it>r</it>²= 0.86).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Comparative association tests consistently demonstrated the g.66493737C>T SNP as the superior variant in the prediction of distance aptitude in racehorses (g.66493737C>T, <it>P </it>= 1.02 × 10^-10; BIEC2-417495, <it>P</it>_unadj.= 1.61 × 10^-9). Functional investigations will be required to determine whether this polymorphism affects putative transcription-factor binding and gives rise to variation in gene and protein expression. Nonetheless, this study demonstrates that the g.66493737C>T SNP provides the most powerful genetic marker for prediction of race distance aptitude in Thoroughbreds.</p

Overview of data-synthesis in systematic reviews of studies on outcome prediction models

Background: Many prognostic models have been developed. Different types of models, i.e. prognostic factor and outcome prediction studies, serve different purposes, which should be reflected in how the results are summarized in reviews. Therefore we set out to investigate how authors of reviews synthesize and report the results of primary outcome prediction studies. Methods: Outcome prediction reviews published in MEDLINE between October 2005 and March 2011 were eligible and 127 Systematic reviews with the aim to summarize outcome prediction studies written in English were identified for inclusion. Characteristics of the reviews and the primary studies that were included were independently assessed by 2 review authors, using standardized forms. Results: After consensus meetings a total of 50 systematic reviews that met the inclusion criteria were included. The type of primary studies included (prognostic factor or outcome prediction) was unclear in two-thirds of the reviews. A minority of the reviews reported univariable or multivariable point estimates and measures of dispersion from the primary studies. Moreover, the variables considered for outcome prediction model development were often not reported, or were unclear. In most reviews there was no information about model performance. Quantitative analysis was performed in 10 reviews, and 49 reviews assessed the primary studies qualitatively. In both analyses types a range of different methods was used to present the results of the outcome prediction studies. Conclusions: Different methods are applied to synthesize primary study results but quantitative analysis is rarely performed. The description of its objectives and of the primary studies is suboptimal and performance parameters of the outcome prediction models are rarely mentioned. The poor reporting and the wide variety of data synthesis strategies are prone to influence the conclusions of outcome prediction reviews. Therefore, there is much room for improvement in reviews of outcome prediction studies. (aut.ref.

A Customer Perspective on Product Eliminations: How the Removal of Products Affects Customers and Business Relationships

Regardless of the apparent need for product eliminations, many managers hesitate to act as they fear deleterious effects on customer satisfaction and loyalty. Other managers do carry out product eliminations, but often fail to consider the consequences for customers and business relationships. Given the relevance and problems of product eliminations, research on this topic in general and on the consequences for customers and business relationships in particular is surprisingly scarce. Therefore, this empirical study explores how and to what extent the elimination of a product negatively affects customers and business relationships. Results indicate that eliminating a product may result in severe economic and psychological costs to customers, thereby seriously decreasing customer satisfaction and loyalty. This paper also shows that these costs are not exogenous in nature. Instead, depending on the characteristics of the eliminated product these costs are found to be more or less strongly driven by a company’s behavior when implementing the elimination at the customer interface