Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1,2,3,4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (‘peak water’) is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season

Dutch Liberation Festivals: A Vehicle to More Politically Active Young Citizens, or Merely the Same Selective Audience?

This article follows up on claims made on the motivating role of national commemorations for young people’s political participation. Cross-sectional data from a Dutch adolescent panel are utilised to focus on a commemoration activity popular amongst young people in the Netherlands, and empirically test to what extent participation in Dutch Liberation festivals amongst young adults (aged 19–20 years old) is associated with their inclinations to vote. To examine whether the association is spurious, several factors previously identified as important determinants of young citizens’ broader civic engagement are accounted for, including parental communication about civic issues, citizenship activities offered at school, involvement in voluntary organisations, and various sociodemographic characteristics. Although the relationship between Liberation festival attendance and voting intentions is partially explained by a more general civic socialisation process, as indicated by, amongst others, the role of parental civic communication and voluntary work, the results show that Dutch Liberation festivals are positively associated with young people’s voting intentions. Moreover, individuals with different educational trajectories or socioeconomic backgrounds have similar chances of attending the Liberation festivals, highlighting the potential of Dutch Liberation festivals to promote political participation amongst all young people equally. At the same time, Liberation festivals are less often attended by youth identifying with a non-Dutch ethnic background, thereby risking reinforcing gaps in political engagement between youth with and without a migration background