Bayesian inference in JASP: a guide for students

This is a collection of standalone handouts covering the most common Bayesian statistical analyses available in JASP for students studying Biological Sciences. Datasets used in this document are available for download from https://osf.io/8qtu2

Volatile Organic Compounds and Pulmonary Function in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988–1994

BACKGROUND: Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are present in much higher concentrations indoors, where people spend most of their time, than outdoors and may have adverse health effects. VOCs have been associated with respiratory symptoms, but few studies address objective respiratory end points such as pulmonary function. Blood levels of VOCs may be more indicative of personal exposures than are air concentrations; no studies have addressed their relationship with respiratory outcomes. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether concentrations of 11 VOCs that were commonly identified in blood from a sample of the U.S. population were associated with pulmonary function. METHODS: We used data from 953 adult participants (20–59 years of age) in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–1994) who had VOC blood measures as well as pulmonary function measures. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the relationship between 11 VOCs and measures of pulmonary function. RESULTS: After adjustment for smoking, only 1,4-dichlorobenzene (1,4-DCB) was associated with reduced pulmonary function. Participants in the highest decile of 1,4-DCB concentration had decrements of −153 mL [95% confidence interval (CI), −297 to −8] in forced expiratory volume in 1 sec and −346 mL/sec (95% CI, −667 to −24) in maximum mid-expiratory flow rate, compared with participants in the lowest decile. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to 1,4-DCB, a VOC related to the use of air fresheners, toilet bowl deodorants, and mothballs, at levels found in the U.S. general population, may result in reduced pulmonary function. This common exposure may have long-term adverse effects on respiratory health

Predicting suicides after outpatient mental health visits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

The 2013 US Veterans Administration/Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guidelines (VA/DoD CPG) require comprehensive suicide risk assessments for VA/DoD patients with mental disorders but provide minimal guidance on how to carry out these assessments. Given that clinician-based assessments are not known to be strong predictors of suicide, we investigated whether a precision medicine model using administrative data after outpatient mental health specialty visits could be developed to predict suicides among outpatients. We focused on male nondeployed Regular US Army soldiers because they account for the vast majority of such suicides. Four machine learning classifiers (naive Bayes, random forests, support vector regression and elastic net penalized regression) were explored. Of the Army suicides in 2004-2009, 41.5% occurred among 12.0% of soldiers seen as outpatient by mental health specialists, with risk especially high within 26 weeks of visits. An elastic net classifier with 10-14 predictors optimized sensitivity (45.6% of suicide deaths occurring after the 15% of visits with highest predicted risk). Good model stability was found for a model using 2004-2007 data to predict 2008-2009 suicides, although stability decreased in a model using 2008-2009 data to predict 2010-2012 suicides. The 5% of visits with highest risk included only 0.1% of soldiers (1047.1 suicides/100 000 person-years in the 5 weeks after the visit). This is a high enough concentration of risk to have implications for targeting preventive interventions. An even better model might be developed in the future by including the enriched information on clinician-evaluated suicide risk mandated by the VA/DoD CPG to be recorded

Twitter Watch: Leveraging Social Media to Monitor and Predict Collective-Efficacy of Neighborhoods

Sociologists associate the spatial variation of crime within an urban setting, with the concept of collective efficacy. The collective efficacy of a neighborhood is defined as social cohesion among neighbors combined with their willingness to intervene on behalf of the common good. Sociologists measure collective efficacy by conducting survey studies designed to measure individuals' perception of their community. In this work, we employ the curated data from a survey study (ground truth) and examine the effectiveness of substituting costly survey questionnaires with proxies derived from social media. We enrich a corpus of tweets mentioning a local venue with several linguistic and topological features. We then propose a pairwise learning to rank model with the goal of identifying a ranking of neighborhoods that is similar to the ranking obtained from the ground truth collective efficacy values. In our experiments, we find that our generated ranking of neighborhoods achieves 0.77 Kendall tau-x ranking agreement with the ground truth ranking. Overall, our results are up to 37% better than traditional baselines.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figure

An Update on Cancer Cluster Activities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continues to be aware of the need for response to public concern as well as to state and local agency concern about cancer clusters. In 1990 the CDC published the “Guidelines for Investigating Clusters of Health Events,” in which a four-stage process was presented. This document has provided a framework that most state health departments have adopted, with modifications pertaining to their specific situations, available resources, and philosophy concerning disease clusters. The purpose of this present article is not to revise the CDC guidelines; they retain their original usefulness and validity. However, in the past 15 years, multiple cluster studies as well as scientific and technologic developments have affected cluster science and response (improvements in cancer registries, a federal initiative in environmental public health tracking, refinement of biomarker technology, cluster identification using geographic information systems software, and the emergence of the Internet). Thus, we offer an addendum for use with the original document. Currently, to address both the needs of state health departments as well as public concern, the CDC now a) provides a centralized, coordinated response system for cancer cluster inquiries, b) supports an electronic cancer cluster listserver, c) maintains an informative web page, and d) provides support to states, ranging from laboratory analysis to epidemiologic assistance and expertise. Response to cancer clusters is appropriate public health action, and the CDC will continue to provide assistance, facilitate communication among states, and foster the development of new approaches in cluster science

The accuracy of MRI in the detection of Lumbar Disc Containment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>MRI has proven to be an extremely valuable tool in the assessment of normal and pathological spinal anatomy. Accordingly, it is commonly used to assess containment of discal material by the outer fibers of the anulus fibrosus and posterior longitudinal ligaments. Determination of such containment is important to determine candidacy for intradiscal techniques and has prognostic significance. The accuracy of MRI in detecting containment has been insufficiently documented.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The MRI's of fifty consecutive patients undergoing open lumbar microdiscectomy were prospectively evaluated for disc containment by a neuroradiologist and senior spinal surgeon using criteria available in the literature and the classification of Macnab/McCulloch. An independent surgeon then performed the surgery and documented the actual containment status using the same methods. Statistical evaluation of accuracy was undertaken.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MRI was found to be 72% sensitive, 68% specific, and 70% accurate in detecting containment status of lumbar herniated discs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>MRI may be inaccurate in assessing containment status of lumbar disc herniations in 30% of cases. Given the importance of containment for patient selection for indirect discectomy techniques and intradiscal therapies, coupled with prognostic significance; other methods to assess containment should be employed to assess containment when such alternative interventions are being considered.</p

Metachronic malignant transformation of small bowel and rectal endometriosis in the same patient

BACKGROUND: Malignant transformation of intestinal endometriosis is a rare event with an unknown rate of incidence. Metachronous progression of endometriosis to adenocarcinoma from two distant intestinal foci happening in the same patient has not been previously reported. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe a case of metachronic transformation of ileal and rectal endometriosis into an adenocarcinoma occurring in a 45-year-old female without macroscopic pelvic involvement of her endometriosis. First, a right colectomy was performed due to intestinal obstruction by an ileal mass. Pathological examination revealed an ileal endometrioid adenocarcinoma and contiguous microscopic endometriotic foci. Twenty months later, a rectal mass was discovered. An endoscopic biopsy revealed an adenocarcinoma. En bloc anterior rectum resection, hysterectomy and bilateral salpingectomy were performed. A second endometrioid adenocarcinoma arising from a focus of endometriosis within the wall of the rectum was diagnosed. CONCLUSION: Intestinal endometriosis should be considered a premalignant condition in premenopausal women

CAR-T cell. the long and winding road to solid tumors

Adoptive cell therapy of solid tumors with reprogrammed T cells can be considered the "next generation" of cancer hallmarks. CAR-T cells fail to be as effective as in liquid tumors for the inability to reach and survive in the microenvironment surrounding the neoplastic foci. The intricate net of cross-interactions occurring between tumor components, stromal and immune cells leads to an ineffective anergic status favoring the evasion from the host's defenses. Our goal is hereby to trace the road imposed by solid tumors to CAR-T cells, highlighting pitfalls and strategies to be developed and refined to possibly overcome these hurdles

Childhood Predictors of Desistance and Level of Persistence in Offending in Early Onset Offenders

Childhood predictors of adolescent offending careers were studied in 310 boys from the longitudinal Pittsburgh Youth Study who started offending prior to age 12. Three main groups were distinguished: serious persisters (n = 95), moderately serious persisters (n = 117), desisters (n = 63), and an intermittent group (n = 35). Group membership was predicted using risk and promotive factors measured in childhood. Serious and moderately serious persisters could be distinguished well from desisters (29.2% and 32.3% explained variance). Distinction between the two persister groups proved somewhat more difficult (20.9% explained variance). More serious persisters than desisters showed disruptive behavior, while moderately serious persisters fell in between. Further, more moderately serious persisters were marked by social disadvantage. Family involvement, small family and positive peer relationships were promotive of desistance. Concluding, early onset offenders show considerable heterogeneity in their adolescent offending careers which seem to some extent to be predicted by different sets of risk and promotive factors

Predictors of long-term pain and disability in patients with low back pain investigated by magnetic resonance imaging: A longitudinal study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is possible that clinical outcome of low back pain (LBP) differs according to the presence or absence of spinal abnormalities on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), in which case there could be value in using MRI findings to refine case definition of LBP in epidemiological research. We therefore conducted a longitudinal study to explore whether spinal abnormalities on MRI for LBP predict prognosis after 18 months.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A consecutive series of patients aged 20-64 years, who were investigated by MRI because of mechanical LBP (median duration of current episode 16.2 months), were identified from three radiology departments, and those who agreed completed self-administered questionnaires at baseline and after a mean follow-up period of 18.5 months (a mean of 22.2 months from MRI investigation). MRI scans were assessed blind to other clinical information, according to a standardised protocol. Associations of baseline MRI findings with pain and disability at follow-up, adjusted for treatment and for other potentially confounding variables, were assessed by Poisson regression and summarised by prevalence ratios (PRs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Questionnaires were completed by 240 (74%) of the patients who had agreed to be followed up. Among these 111 men and 129 women, 175 (73%) reported LBP in the past four weeks, 89 (37%) frequent LBP, and 72 (30%) disabling LBP. In patients with initial disc degeneration there was an increased risk of frequent (PR 1.3, 95%CI 1.0-1.9) and disabling LBP (PR 1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.5) at follow-up. No other associations were found between MRI abnormalities and subsequent outcome.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the MRI abnormalities examined are not major predictors of outcome in patients with LBP. They give no support to the use of MRI findings as a way of refining case definition for LBP in epidemiological research.</p