The value of including boys in an HPV vaccination programme: a cost-effectiveness analysis in a low-resource setting

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of including boys vs girls alone in a pre-adolescent vaccination programme against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 in Brazil. Using demographic, epidemiological, and cancer data from Brazil, we developed a dynamic transmission model of HPV infection between males and females. Model-projected reductions in HPV incidence under different vaccination scenarios were applied to a stochastic model of cervical carcinogenesis to project lifetime costs and benefits. We assumed vaccination prevented HPV-16 and -18 infections in individuals not previously infected, and protection was lifelong. Coverage was varied from 0-90% in both genders, and cost per-vaccinated individual was varied from I$25 to 400. At 90$50, vaccinating girls alone was <$200 per year of life saved (YLS), while including boys ranged from$810–18 650 per YLS depending on coverage. For all coverage levels, increasing coverage in girls was more effective and less costly than including boys in the vaccination programme. In a resource-constrained setting such as Brazil, our results support that the first priority in reducing cervical cancer mortality should be to vaccinate pre-adolescent girls

Human papillomavirus vaccine introduction in low-income and middle-income countries: guidance on the use of cost-effectiveness models

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that the cost effectiveness of introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is considered before such a strategy is implemented. However, developing countries often lack the technical capacity to perform and interpret results of economic appraisals of vaccines. To provide information about the feasibility of using such models in a developing country setting, we evaluated models of HPV vaccination in terms of their capacity, requirements, limitations and comparability. METHODS: A literature review identified six HPV vaccination models suitable for low-income and middle-income country use and representative of the literature in terms of provenance and model structure. Each model was adapted by its developers using standardised data sets representative of two hypothetical developing countries (a low-income country with no screening and a middle-income country with limited screening). Model predictions before and after vaccination of adolescent girls were compared in terms of HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, as was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of vaccination under different scenarios. RESULTS: None of the models perfectly reproduced the standardised data set provided to the model developers. However, they agreed that large decreases in type 16/18 HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence are likely to occur following vaccination. Apart from the Thai model (in which vaccine and non-vaccine HPV types were combined), vaccine-type HPV prevalence dropped by 75% to 100%, and vaccine-type cervical cancer incidence dropped by 80% to 100% across the models (averaging over age groups). The most influential factors affecting cost effectiveness were the discount rate, duration of vaccine protection, vaccine price and HPV prevalence. Demographic change, access to treatment and data resolution were found to be key issues to consider for models in developing countries. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated the usefulness of considering results from several models and sets of modelling assumptions in decision making. Modelling groups were prepared to share their models and expertise to work with stakeholders in developing countries. Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/9/55

Analysis of symmetries in models of multi-strain infections

In mathematical studies of the dynamics of multi-strain diseases caused by antigenically diverse pathogens, there is a substantial interest in analytical insights. Using the example of a generic model of multi-strain diseases with cross-immunity between strains, we show that a significant understanding of the stability of steady states and possible dynamical behaviours can be achieved when the symmetry of interactions between strains is taken into account. Techniques of equivariant bifurcation theory allow one to identify the type of possible symmetry-breaking Hopf bifurcation, as well as to classify different periodic solutions in terms of their spatial and temporal symmetries. The approach is also illustrated on other models of multi-strain diseases, where the same methodology provides a systematic understanding of bifurcation scenarios and periodic behaviours. The results of the analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of a large class of models of multi-strain diseases

Evaluating human papillomavirus vaccination programs in Canada: should provincial healthcare pay for voluntary adult vaccination?

Abstract Background Recently, provincial health programs in Canada and elsewhere have begun rolling out vaccination against human papillomavirus for girls aged 9–13. While vaccination is voluntary, the cost of vaccination is waived, to encourage parents to have their daughters vaccinated. Adult women who are eligible for the vaccine may still receive it, but at a cost of approximately CAN$400. Given the high efficacy and immunogenicity of the vaccine, the possibility of eradicating targeted types of the virus may be feasible, assuming the vaccination programs are undertaken strategically. Methods We develop a mathematical model to describe the epidemiology of vaccination against human papillomavirus, accounting for a widespread childhood vaccination program that may be supplemented by voluntary adult vaccination. A stability analysis is performed to determine the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The critical vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity thresholds are derived, and the minimum level of adult vaccination required for eradication of targeted types is determined. Results We demonstrate that eradication of targeted types is indeed feasible, although the burden of coverage for a childhood-only vaccination program may be high. However, if a small, but non-negligible, proportion of eligible adults can be vaccinated, then the possibility of eradication of targeted types becomes much more favourable. We provide a threshold for eradication in general communities and illustrate the results with numerical simulations. We also investigate the effects of suboptimal efficacy and immunogenicity and show that there is a critical efficacy below which eradication of targeted types is not possible. If eradication is possible, then there is a critical immunogenicity such that even 100% childhood vaccination will not eradicate the targeted types of the virus and must be supplemented with voluntary adult vaccination. However, the level of adult vaccination coverage required is modest and may be achieved simply by removing the cost burden to vaccination. Conclusion We recommend that provincial healthcare programs should pay for voluntary adult vaccination for women aged 14–26. However, it should be noted that our model results are preliminary, in that we have made a number of simplifying assumptions, including a lack of age-dependency in sexual partner rates, a lack of sexual activity outside of the vaccine age-range among females and a uniform age of sexual debut; thus, further work is desired to enhance the external generalisability of our results.</p

Progression and regression of incident cervical HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18 infections in young women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We describe type-specific progression, regression and persistence of incident human papillomavirus (HPV)-6-11-16 and -18 infections, along with type distribution in cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) lesions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study population consisted of 16–23 year-old women undergoing Pap testing and cervical swab polymerase chain reaction testing for HPV DNA at approximate 6 month intervals for up to 4 years in the placebo arm of a clinical trial of an HPV 16-vaccine. HPV types in incident infections were correlated with types in lesion biopsy specimens.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>56.7% of CIN-1 and nearly one-third of CIN-2/3 lesions following incident HPV-6-11-16 or -18 infections did not correlate with the incident infection HPV type. Cumulative 36-month progression rates to CIN-2/3 testing positive for the relevant HPV type were highest for HPV-16 infections (16.5%), followed by HPV-18 (8.2%). Overall, 26.0% of CIN-1, 50.0% of CIN-2 and 70.6% of CIN-3 biopsies tested positive for HPV-6-11-16-18 infections.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Women with a given HPV type may often be co-infected or subsequently infected with other types which may lead to subsequent cervical lesions. This issue has been addressed in this study reporting data for the natural history of HPV-6-11-16 and -18 infections and is a relevant consideration in designing future studies to evaluate the incidence/risk of CIN following other type-specific HPV infections.</p

Sex-Specific Immunization for Sexually Transmitted Infections Such as Human Papillomavirus: Insights from Mathematical Models

Johannes Bogaards and colleagues use mathematical models to investigate whether vaccinating females only, males only, or both sexes is the best way to achieve the most effective reduction in the population prevalence of sexually-transmitted infection

Individualized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

John Ioannidis and Alan Garber discuss how to use incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and related metrics so they can be useful for decision-making at the individual level, whether used by clinicians or individual patients

Impact of genital warts on health related quality of life in men and women in mainland China: a multicenter hospital-based cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Information on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients with genital warts (GW) in populations in mainland China is still limited. The aim of the study was to use a generic instrument to measure the impact of genital warts on HRQoL in men and women in this setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A multi-centre hospital-based cross-sectional study across 18 centers in China was conducted to interview patients using the European quality of life-5 dimension (EQ-5D) instrument; respondents' demographic and clinical data were also collected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1,358 GW patients (612 men, 746 women) were included in the analysis, with a mean age of 32.0 ± 10.6 years. 56.4% of the patients reported some problems in the dimension of Anxiety/Depression (highest), followed by Pain/Discomfort (24.7%) and Mobility (3.5%). The overall visual analogue scale (VAS) score of the study population was found to be 65.2 ± 22.0, and the EQ-5D index score was found to be 0.843 ± 0.129 using Japanese preference weights (the Chinese preference was unavailable yet). Patients with lower VAS means and EQ-5D index scores were more often female, living in urban area, and suffering multiple GW (all p values < 0.05), but the values did not differ notably by age (p values > 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The HRQoL of patients with GW was substantially lower, compared to a national representative general population in China (VAS = ~80); the findings of different subgroups are informative for future GW prevention and control efforts.</p

Impact of HPV vaccination : health gains in the Italian female population

Abstract Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the leading cause of cervical cancer and other malignant and benign neoplastic lesions. HPV vaccination has three potential goals: to prevent transmission, infection, and disease. At present, there are no available data about health consequences of HPV immunization in Italy. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of current HPV vaccination strategy in Italy. Methods A multistate morbidity-mortality model was developed to estimate the infection process in a theoretical cohort of Italian women. The Markov process considered nine health states (health, anogenital warts, grade 1 and grade 2/3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical cancer, anal cancer, death due to cervical cancer, anal cancer and other causes), and 26 transition probabilities for each age group. The model was informed with the available data in national and international literature. Effectiveness of immunization was assumed considering a literature review pertaining to models and vaccination coverage rates observed in Italy. Life expectancy (ex), Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and attributable risk (AR) were estimated for no intervention (cervical cancer screening) and vaccination strategies scenarios. Results The model showed that in a cohort of 100,000 Italian women the e0 is equal to 83.1 years. With current HPV vaccination strategy the e0 achieves 83.2 (+0.1) years. When HPV-related diseases are considered altogether, the QALYs increase from 82.7 to 82.9 (+0.2 QALYs) with no intervention and vaccination strategies respectively. DALYs decrease by 0.6 due to vaccination. Finally, AR is equal to 93 and 265 cases per 100,000 women in population and not vaccinated, respectively. Conclusion When mortality due to cervical cancer is considered, HPV vaccination seems to have a low impact on health unit gains in the Italian female population. Conversely, when several HPV-related and cancer morbidity conditions are included, the effect of vaccination becomes quite remarkable

A cost-utility analysis of cervical cancer vaccination in preadolescent Canadian females

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the fact that approximately 70% of Canadian women undergo cervical cancer screening at least once every 3 years, approximately 1,300 women were diagnosed with cervical cancer and approximately 380 died from it in 2008. This study estimates the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccinating 12-year old Canadian females with an AS04-adjuvanted cervical cancer vaccine. The indirect effect of vaccination, via herd immunity, is also estimated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 12-health-state 1-year-cycle Markov model was developed to estimate lifetime HPV related events for a cohort of 12-year old females. Annual transition probabilities between health-states were derived from published literature and Canadian population statistics. The model was calibrated using Canadian cancer statistics. From a healthcare perspective, the cost-effectiveness of introducing a vaccine with efficacy against HPV-16/18 and evidence of cross-protection against other oncogenic HPV types was evaluated in a population undergoing current screening practices. The base-case analysis included 70% screening coverage, 75% vaccination coverage, $135/dose for vaccine, and 3$18,672-$31,687 per QALY-gained, the lower range representing inclusion of cross-protective efficacy and herd immunity. The cost per QALY-gained was most sensitive to duration of vaccine protection, discount rate, and the correlation between probability of screening and probability of vaccination.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the context of current screening patterns, vaccination of 12-year old Canadian females with an ASO4-ajuvanted cervical cancer vaccine is estimated to significantly reduce cervical cancer and mortality, and is a cost-effective option. However, the economic attractiveness of vaccination is impacted by the vaccine's duration of protection and the discount rate used in the analysis.</p