Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: the role of model parameter uncertainty

Land surface modeling, in conjunction with numerical weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing, is playing an increasing role in global monitoring and prediction of extreme hydrologic events (i.e., floods and droughts). However, uncertainties in the meteorological forcings, model structure, and parameter identifiability limit the reliability of model predictions. This study focuses on the latter by assessing two potential weaknesses that emerge due to limitations in our global runoff observations: (1) the limits of identifying model parameters at coarser timescales than those at which the extreme events occur, and (2) the negative impacts of not properly accounting for model parameter equifinality in the predictions of extreme events. To address these challenges, petascale parallel computing is used to perform the first global-scale, 10 000 member ensemble-based evaluation of plausible model parameters using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) land surface model, aiming to characterize the impact of parameter identifiability on the uncertainty in flood and drought predictions. Additionally, VIC's global-scale parametric sensitivities are assessed at the annual, monthly, and daily timescales to determine whether coarse-timescale observations can properly constrain extreme events. Global and climate type results indicate that parameter uncertainty remains an important concern for predicting extreme events even after applying monthly and annual constraints to the ensemble, suggesting a need for improved prior distributions of the model parameters as well as improved observations. This study contributes a comprehensive evaluation of land surface modeling for global flood and drought monitoring and suggests paths forward to overcome the challenges posed by parameter uncertainty

An initial assessment of SMAP soil moisture retrievals using high-resolution model simulations and in situ observations

At the end of its first year of operation, we compare soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to simulations from a land surface model with meteorological forcing downscaled from observations/reanalysis and in situ observations from sparse monitoring networks within continental United States (CONUS). The radar failure limits the duration of comparisons for the active and combined products (~3 months). Nevertheless, the passive product compares very well against in situ observations over CONUS. On average, SMAP compares to the in situ data even better than the land surface model and provides significant added value on top of the model and thus good potential for data assimilation. At large scale, SMAP is in good agreement with the model in most of CONUS with less-than-expected degradation over mountainous areas. Lower correlation between SMAP and the model is seen in the forested east CONUS and significantly lower over the Canadian boreal forests

Multi-site evaluation of terrestrial evaporation models using FLUXNET data

We evaluated the performance of four commonly applied land surface evaporation models using a high-quality dataset of selected FLUXNET towers. The models that were examined include an energy balance approach (Surface Energy Balance System; SEBS), a combination-type technique (single-source Penman–Monteith; PM), a complementary method (advection-aridity; AA) and a radiation based approach (modified Priestley–Taylor; PT-JPL). Twenty FLUXNET towers were selected based upon satisfying stringent forcing data requirements and representing a wide range of biomes. These towers encompassed a number of grassland, cropland, shrubland, evergreen needleleaf forest and deciduous broadleaf forest sites. Based on the mean value of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the root mean squared difference (RMSD), the order of overall performance of the models from best to worst were: ensemble mean of models (0.61, 64), PT-JPL (0.59, 66), SEBS (0.42, 84), PM (0.26, 105) and AA (0.18, 105) [statistics stated as (NSE, RMSD in W m−2)]. Although PT-JPL uses a relatively simple and largely empirical formulation of the evaporative process, the technique showed improved performance compared to PM, possibly due to its partitioning of total evaporation (canopy transpiration, soil evaporation, wet canopy evaporation) and lower uncertainties in the required forcing data. The SEBS model showed low performance over tall and heterogeneous canopies, which was likely a consequence of the effects of the roughness sub-layer parameterization employed in this scheme. However, SEBS performed well overall. Relative to PT-JPL and SEBS, the PM and AA showed low performance over the majority of sites, due to their sensitivity to the parameterization of resistances. Importantly, it should be noted that no single model was consistently best across all biomes. Indeed, this outcome highlights the need for further evaluation of each model's structure and parameterizations to identify sensitivities and their appropriate application to different surface types and conditions. It is expected that the results of this study can be used to inform decisions regarding model choice for water resources and agricultural management, as well as providing insight into model selection for global flux monitoring efforts

Validation of SMAP soil moisture for the SMAPVEX15 field campaign using a hyper-resolution model

Accurate global mapping of soil moisture is the goal of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, which is expected to improve the estimation of water, energy, and carbon exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. Like other satellite products, the SMAP soil moisture retrievals need to be validated, with the validation relying heavily on in situ measurements. However, a one-to-one comparison is ill advised due to the spatial mismatch of the large SMAP footprint (∼40 km) and the point scale in situ measurements. This study uses a recently developed hyper-resolution land surface model—HydroBlocks—as a tool to upscale in situ soil moisture measurements for the SMAPVEX15 (SMAP Validation Experiment 2015) field campaign during 2–18 August 2015. Calibrated against in situ observation, HydroBlocks shows a satisfactory Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.817 and RMSE of 0.019 m /m for the calibration period. These results indicate that HydroBlocks can be used to upscale in situ measurements for this site. Different from previous studies, here in situ measurements are upscaled using a land surface model without bias correction. The upscaled soil moisture is then used to evaluate SMAP (passive) soil moisture products. The comparison of the upscaled network to SMAP shows that the retrievals are generally able to capture the areal-averaged soil moisture temporal variations. However, SMAP appears to be oversensitive to summer precipitation. We expect these findings can be used to improve the SMAP soil moisture product and thus facilitate its usage in studying the water, energy, and carbon cycles. 3

Validation of SMAP soil moisture for the SMAPVEX15 field campaign using a hyper-resolution model

Accurate global mapping of soil moisture is the goal of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, which is expected to improve the estimation of water, energy, and carbon exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. Like other satellite products, the SMAP soil moisture retrievals need to be validated, with the validation relying heavily on in situ measurements. However, a one-to-one comparison is ill advised due to the spatial mismatch of the large SMAP footprint (∼40 km) and the point scale in situ measurements. This study uses a recently developed hyper-resolution land surface model—HydroBlocks—as a tool to upscale in situ soil moisture measurements for the SMAPVEX15 (SMAP Validation Experiment 2015) field campaign during 2–18 August 2015. Calibrated against in situ observation, HydroBlocks shows a satisfactory Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.817 and RMSE of 0.019 m3/m3 for the calibration period. These results indicate that HydroBlocks can be used to upscale in situ measurements for this site. Different from previous studies, here in situ measurements are upscaled using a land surface model without bias correction. The upscaled soil moisture is then used to evaluate SMAP (passive) soil moisture products. The comparison of the upscaled network to SMAP shows that the retrievals are generally able to capture the areal-averaged soil moisture temporal variations. However, SMAP appears to be oversensitive to summer precipitation. We expect these findings can be used to improve the SMAP soil moisture product and thus facilitate its usage in studying the water, energy, and carbon cycles