An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. A global attribution is performed initially to identify the important forcing and predictor components of the model . Ensemble hindcasts of surface air temperature anomaly fields are then generated, based on the forcings and predictors identified as important, under a series of different prediction ‘modes’ and their performance is evaluated. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to 10 years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. It is suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to facilitate further developments, including the prediction of other surface variables and the ability to incorporate additional predictors within the model that are shown to contribute significantly to variability at the local scale. It is also semi-operational in the sense that forecasts have been produced for the coming decade and can be updated when additional data becomes available

Comparative genomics of Pseudomonas fluorescens subclade III strains from human lungs

Abstract Background While the taxonomy and genomics of environmental strains from the P. fluorescens species-complex has been reported, little is known about P. fluorescens strains from clinical samples. In this report, we provide the first genomic analysis of P. fluorescens strains in which human vs. environmental isolates are compared. Results Seven P. fluorescens strains were isolated from respiratory samples from cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. The clinical strains could grow at a higher temperature (>34 °C) than has been reported for environmental strains. Draft genomes were generated for all of the clinical strains, and multi-locus sequence analysis placed them within subclade III of the P. fluorescens species-complex. All strains encoded type- II, −III, −IV, and -VI secretion systems, as well as the widespread colonization island (WCI). This is the first description of a WCI in P. fluorescens strains. All strains also encoded a complete I2/PfiT locus and showed evidence of horizontal gene transfer. The clinical strains were found to differ from the environmental strains in the number of genes involved in metal resistance, which may be a possible adaptation to chronic antibiotic exposure in the CF lung. Conclusions This is the largest comparative genomics analysis of P. fluorescens subclade III strains to date and includes the first clinical isolates. At a global level, the clinical P. fluorescens subclade III strains were largely indistinguishable from environmental P. fluorescens subclade III strains, supporting the idea that identifying strains as ‘environmental’ vs ‘clinical’ is not a phenotypic trait. Rather, strains within P. fluorescens subclade III will colonize and persist in any niche that provides the requirements necessary for growth.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/116129/1/12864_2015_Article_2261.pd

The Role of Mitochondria in the Activation/Maintenance of SOCE: Membrane Contact Sites as Signaling Hubs Sustaining Store-Operated Ca2+ Entry

Store-operated Ca2+ entry (SOCE) is a cell signaling pathway essential for immune and muscle function controlled by dynamic interactions between Ca2+-sensing STIM proteins on the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and Ca2+-permeable ORAI channels on the plasma membrane (PM). STIM-ORAI interactions occur at membrane contact sites (MCS), evolutionarily conserved cellular structures characterized by the close apposition (10-20 nm) between the ER and target membranes that facilitate the exchange of lipids by non-vesicular transport mechanisms. STIM-ORAI interactions were considered to be restricted to ER-PM MCS, but recent evidence indicates that productive interactions take place between ER-bound STIM1 and Ca2+ channels located in intracellular organelles. Interactions between the ER and endosomes or lysosomes regulate the lipid homeostasis of these organelles and the propagation of Ca2+ signals initiated by the release of Ca2+ from acidic stores. Intracellular MCS also regulate the efficiency of phagocytosis, a fundamental cellular process essential for immunity and tissue homeostasis, by ensuring the coordinated opening of Ca2+ channels on phagocytic vacuoles and of Ca2+ release channels on juxtaposed ER stores. In this chapter, we review the current knowledge on the molecular composition and architecture of membrane contact sites that sustain Ca2+ signals at the plasma membrane and in intracellular organelles