289 research outputs found
Investigating Nonlinearity: A Note on the Implementation of Hamilton's Methodology
In this paper we give an account of the new approach to nonlinear econometric modelling proposed by Hamilton (2001) and briefly describe some of the methods of nonlinear optimization that may be used in the Gauss computer program provided by Hamilton for the implementation of his methodology. The performance of this program is investigated using data relating to Hamilton's example concerning the US Phillips curve, two versions of the Gauss software and a range of alternative numerical optimization options and values for the important Gauss parameter _oprteps. Finally, the effects of changes in the sample data on the results produced by Hamilton's procedure are explored. The results presented suggest some clear conclusions, which will be of value to those contemplating working with Hamilton's new method.
Investigating Nonlinearity: A Note on the Estimation of Hamilton’s Random Field Regression Model
This is a revised and extended version of the authors’ 2003 Trinity Economic Paper. It describes Hamilton’s (2001) approach to nonlinear econometric modelling and some of the methods of nonlinear optimization, as before, but adds significantly to the investigation of Hamilton’s Gauss program for the implementation of his methodology. Specifically, it reports on the performance of this program using data relating to Hamilton’s US Phillips curve example, the use of two versions of the Gauss software and a range of numerical optimization options. It also examines the impact of changes in initial parameter estimates, the use of algorithm switching strategies, and the e?ects of changes in the sample data on the results produced by Hamilton’s procedure. The new results presented suggest some further clear conclusions that will be of value to those using Hamilton’s method.
Structure Formation with Majoron Supermultiplet
We show that the late-decaying particle scenario may be realized in the
supersymmetric singlet majoron model with the majoron scale TeV. The
smajoron decaying into two neutrinos is the late-decaying particle with the
mass TeV and the life-time seconds. The lower
limit of the majorino mass is TeV in order to avoid the overclosure of
the universe due to the decay-produced LSP. The muon neutrino and the tau
neutrino can be used to explain the atmospheric and the solar neutrino deficit.Comment: 9 pages, latex; some changes in the main text, but none in conclusio
Sociological variety and the transmission efficiency of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a secondary analysis of qualitative and quantitative data from 15 communities in Zambia
Objectives: Selected Zambian communities formed part of a cluster randomised trial: the Zambia and South Africa TB and AIDS Reduction study (ZAMSTAR). There was wide variability in the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis (TB) disease across these communities. We sought to clarify whether specific communities could have been more/less vulnerable to M. tuberculosis transmission as a result of sociological variety relevant to transmission efficiency.
Design: We conducted a mixed methods secondary analysis using existing data sets. First, we analysed qualitative data to categorise and synthesise patterns of socio-spatial engagement across communities. Second, we compared emergent sociological variables with a measure of transmission efficiency: the ratio of the annual risk of infection to TB prevalence.
Setting: ZAMSTAR communities in urban and peri-urban Zambia, spanning five provinces.
Participants Fifteen communities, each served by a health facility offering TB treatment to a population of at least 25 000. TB notification rates were at least 400 per 100 000 per annum and HIV seroprevalence was estimated to be high.
Results: Crowding, movement, livelihoods and participation in recreational activity differed across communities. Based on 12 socio-spatial indicators, communities were qualitatively classified as more/less spatially crowded and as more/less socially ‘open’ to contact with others, with implications for the presumptive risk of M. tuberculosis transmission. For example, watching video shows in poorly ventilated structures posed a presumptive risk in more socially open communities, while outdoor farming and/or fishing were particularly widespread in communities with lower transmission measures.
Conclusions: A dual dynamic of ‘social permeability’ and crowding appeared relevant to disparities in M. tuberculosis transmission efficiency. To reduce transmission, certain socio-spatial aspects could be adjusted (eg, increasing ventilation on transport), while more structural aspects are less malleable (eg, reliance on public transport). We recommend integrating community level typologies with genome sequencing techniques to further explore the significance of ‘social permeability’.
Trial registration number: ISRCTN36729271
Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropy with Cosine-Type Quintessence
We study the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropies produced by
cosine-type quintessence models. In our analysis, effects of the adiabatic and
isocurvature fluctuations are both taken into account. For purely adiabatic
fluctuations with scale invariant spectrum, we obtain a stringent constraint on
the model parameters using the CMB data from COBE, BOOMERanG and MAXIMA.
Furthermore, it is shown that isocurvature fluctuations have significant
effects on the CMB angular power spectrum at low multipoles in some parameter
space, which may be detectable in future satellite experiments. Such a signal
may be used to test the cosine-type quintessence models.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figure
Is the evidence for dark energy secure?
Several kinds of astronomical observations, interpreted in the framework of
the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology, have indicated that our
universe is dominated by a Cosmological Constant. The dimming of distant Type
Ia supernovae suggests that the expansion rate is accelerating, as if driven by
vacuum energy, and this has been indirectly substantiated through studies of
angular anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and of spatial
correlations in the large-scale structure (LSS) of galaxies. However there is
no compelling direct evidence yet for (the dynamical effects of) dark energy.
The precision CMB data can be equally well fitted without dark energy if the
spectrum of primordial density fluctuations is not quite scale-free and if the
Hubble constant is lower globally than its locally measured value. The LSS data
can also be satisfactorily fitted if there is a small component of hot dark
matter, as would be provided by neutrinos of mass 0.5 eV. Although such an
Einstein-de Sitter model cannot explain the SNe Ia Hubble diagram or the
position of the `baryon acoustic oscillation' peak in the autocorrelation
function of galaxies, it may be possible to do so e.g. in an inhomogeneous
Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi cosmology where we are located in a void which is
expanding faster than the average. Such alternatives may seem contrived but
this must be weighed against our lack of any fundamental understanding of the
inferred tiny energy scale of the dark energy. It may well be an artifact of an
oversimplified cosmological model, rather than having physical reality.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures; to appear in a special issue of General
Relativity and Gravitation, eds. G.F.R. Ellis et al; Changes: references
reformatted in journal style - text unchange
Bounds from Primordial Black Holes with a Near Critical Collapse Initial Mass Function
Recent numerical evidence suggests that a mass spectrum of primordial black
holes (PBHs) is produced as a consequence of near critical gravitational
collapse. Assuming that these holes formed from the initial density
perturbations seeded by inflation, we calculate model independent upper bounds
on the mass variance at the reheating temperature by requiring the mass density
not exceed the critical density and the photon emission not exceed current
diffuse gamma-ray measurements. We then translate these results into bounds on
the spectral index n by utilizing the COBE data to normalize the mass variance
at large scales, assuming a constant power law, then scaling this result to the
reheating temperature. We find that our bounds on n differ substantially
(\delta n > 0.05) from those calculated using initial mass functions derived
under the assumption that the black hole mass is proportional to the horizon
mass at the collapse epoch. We also find a change in the shape of the diffuse
gamma-ray spectrum which results from the Hawking radiation. Finally, we study
the impact of a nonzero cosmological constant and find that the bounds on n are
strengthened considerably if the universe is indeed vacuum-energy dominated
today.Comment: 24 pages, REVTeX, 5 figures; minor typos fixed, two refs added,
version to be published in PR
Detectability of Tensor Perturbations Through CBR Anisotropy (final published version)
Detection of the tensor perturbations predicted in inflationary models is
important for testing inflation as well as for reconstructing the inflationary
potential. We show that because of cosmic variance the tensor contribution to
the square of the CBR quadrupole anisotropy must be greater than about 20\% of
the scalar contribution to ensure a statistically significant detection of
tensor perturbations. This sensitivity could be achieved by full-sky
measurements on angular scales of and .Comment: 10 pages, uu-encoded postscript file, FERMILAB-PUB-94/175-
Limits on the gravity wave contribution to microwave anisotropies
We present limits on the fraction of large angle microwave anisotropies which
could come from tensor perturbations. We use the COBE results as well as
smaller scale CMB observations, measurements of galaxy correlations, abundances
of galaxy clusters, and Lyman alpha absorption cloud statistics. Our aim is to
provide conservative limits on the tensor-to-scalar ratio for standard
inflationary models. For power-law inflation, for example, we find T/S<0.52 at
95% confidence, with a similar constraint for phi^p potentials. However, for
models with tensor amplitude unrelated to the scalar spectral index it is still
currently possible to have T/S>1.Comment: 23 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. D.
Calculations extended to blue spectral index, Fig. 6 added, discussion of
results expande
Running coupling: Does the coupling between dark energy and dark matter change sign during the cosmological evolution?
In this paper we put forward a running coupling scenario for describing the
interaction between dark energy and dark matter. The dark sector interaction in
our scenario is free of the assumption that the interaction term is
proportional to the Hubble expansion rate and the energy densities of dark
sectors. We only use a time-variable coupling (with the scale factor
of the universe) to characterize the interaction . We propose a
parametrization form for the running coupling in which the
early-time coupling is given by a constant , while today the coupling is
given by another constant, . For investigating the feature of the running
coupling, we employ three dark energy models, namely, the cosmological constant
model (), the constant model (), and the time-dependent
model (). We constrain the models with the current
observational data, including the type Ia supernova, the baryon acoustic
oscillation, the cosmic microwave background, the Hubble expansion rate, and
the X-ray gas mass fraction data. The fitting results indicate that a
time-varying vacuum scenario is favored, in which the coupling crosses
the noninteracting line () during the cosmological evolution and the sign
changes from negative to positive. The crossing of the noninteracting line
happens at around , and the crossing behavior is favored at about
1 confidence level. Our work implies that we should pay more attention
to the time-varying vacuum model and seriously consider the phenomenological
construction of a sign-changeable or oscillatory interaction between dark
sectors.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures; refs added; to appear in EPJ
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