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Business Failure Prediction in Manufacturing: A Robust Bayesian Approach to Discriminant Scoring
This paper provides a methodological analysis of credit risk in manufacturing
firms. By using a representative sample of both healthy and bankrupted firms
during the period 2003–2009 we provide an in-depth comparison of the standard
discriminant approach for bankruptcy prediction based on a logistic regression
model and a Robust Bayesian Approach. We conclude that the use of a robust
GLM regression methodology enables us to provide a more accurate separation
between sound and unsound firms thus suggesting that this methodological
framework may be used to achieve a more reliable measure of firms credit
worthiness