145 research outputs found
Performance Simulation of Non-reliable Servers in Finite-Source Cognitive Radio Networks with Collision
On the sequential testing and quickest change-point detection problems for Gaussian processes
Bayesian switching multiple disorder problems
The switching multiple disorder problem seeks to determine an ordered infinite sequence of times of alarms which are as close as possible to the unknown times of disorders, or change-points, at which the observable process changes its probability characteristics. We study a Bayesian formulation of this problem for an observable Brownian motion with switching constant drift rates. The method of proof is based on the reduction of the initial problem to an associated optimal switching problem for a three-dimensional diffusion posterior probability process and the analysis of the equivalent coupled parabolic-type free-boundary problem. We derive analytic-form estimates for the Bayesian risk function and the optimal switching boundaries for the components of the posterior probability process
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Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability
Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability (ref. 1). Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios (ref. 2,3,4). Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records (ref. 5), impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) (ref. 6) under RCP4.5 (ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ∼50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence (ref. 8). These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments
Structuring properties of irrigation systems: understanding relations between humans and hydraulics through modeling
Bootstrap Procedures for Recursive Estimation Schemes with Applications to Forecast Model Selection
Critique of Contingent Valuation and Travel Cost Methods for Valuing Natural Resources and Ecosystems
Integrating Archaeological Theory and Predictive Modeling: a Live Report from the Scene
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