Exact Inference for the Linear Model with Groupwise Heteroscedasticity

Exact inference on a single coefficient in a linear regression model, as introduced by Bekker (1997), is elaborated for the case of normally distributed heteroscedastic disturbances. Instead of approximate inference based on feasible generalized least squares, exact confidence sets are formulated based on partial rotational invariance of the distribution of the vector of disturbances. The approach is applied to the random-effects and fixed-effects models for panel data.

Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?

In contrast to findings of other studies, evidence is presented to support the existence of a Federal Reserve-induced political monetary cycle that corresponds to the U.S. presidential election cycle. Using various Taylor rules, we find support for the view that Fed policy turns significantly more expansionary in the seven quarters prior to the election, but only when the Fed chair and incumbent presidential party have partisan affiliations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006