Water clarity patterns in South Florida coastal waters and their linkages to synoptic-scale wind forcing

Temporal variability in water clarity for South Florida’s marine ecosystems was examined through satellite-derived light attenuation (Kd) coefficients, in the context of wind- and weather patterns. Reduced water clarity along Florida’s coasts is often the result of abrupt wind-resuspension events and other exogenous factors linked to frontal passage, storms, and precipitation. Kd data between 1998 and 2013 were synthesized to form a normalized Kd index (KDI) and subsequently compared with Self Organizing Map (SOM)-based wind field categorizations to reveal spatiotemporal patterns and their inter-relationships. Kd climatological maximums occur from October through December along southern sections of the West Florida Shelf (WFS) and from January through March along the Florida Straits. Spatial clusters of elevated Kd occur along 3 spatial domains: central WFS, southern WFS, and Florida Straits near the Florida Reef Tract, where intra-seasonal variability is the highest, and clarity patterns are associated with transitional wind patterns sequenced with cyclonic circulation. Temporal wind transitions from southerly to northerly, typically accompanying frontal passages, most often result in elevated Kd response. Results demonstrate the potential of using synoptic climatological analysis and satellite indices for tracking variability in water clarity and other indicators related to biological health

The Development of a Non-linear Autoregressive Model with Exogenous Input (NARX) to Model Climate-water Clarity Relationships: Reconstructing a Historical Water Clarity Index for the Coastal Waters of the Southeastern USA

The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular weather events. Water clarity, strongly affected by atmospheric events, is linked to substantial environmental impacts throughout the region. To assess this relationship over the long-term, this study uses an artificial neural network-based time series modeling technique known as non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models) to explore the relationship between climate and a water clarity index (KDI) in this area and to reconstruct this index over a 66-year period. Results show that synoptic-scale circulation patterns, weather types, and precipitation all play roles in impacting water clarity to varying degrees in each region of the larger domain. In particular, turbid water is associated with transitional weather and cyclonic circulation in much of the study region. Overall, NARX model performance also varies—regionally, seasonally and interannually—with wintertime estimates of KDI along the West Florida Shelf correlating to the actual KDI at r \u3e 0.70. Periods of extreme (high) KDI in this area coincide with notable El Niño events. An upward trend in extreme KDI events from 1948 to 2013 is also present across much of the Florida Gulf coast