Global Projections of Household Numbers Using Age Determined Ratios

A new method based upon age determined population ratios is described and used to estimate household population intensities (households per person). Using an additive and a bounded model household projections are given to 2050 for the world and to 2030 for seven fertility transition subgroups (cohorts) of the countries of the world. Based upon United Nations 2002 Revision data, from an estimated 1.56 billion households at 2000, household growth to 2030 is projected to be an additional 1.1 billion households, whether population increase is 1.3 billion persons under the United Nations low fertility variant or 2.7 billion persons under the high fertility variant. At that date over one third of all households are projected to be Chinese or Indian. By 2050 it is projected that there will be 3.3 billion households with a 95 per cent confidence interval on modelling error only of ± 0.5 billion. This compares with 3.2 billion in the Habitat: Global Report on Human Settlements 1996. The apparent similarity of total household growth under various scenarios conceals a wide range in the growth of household intensities across fertility transition cohorts. It is suggested that models, projections and error be reviewed biennially and that household and population projections be produced jointly.Household projections, world, age ratios, fertility

Concept design of a fast sail assisted feeder container ship

An environmentally sustainable fast sail-assisted feeder-container ship concept, with a maximum speed of 25 knots, has been developed for the 2020 South East Asian and Caribbean container markets. The use of low-carbon and zero-sulphur fuel (liquefied natural gas) and improvements in operational efficiency (cargo handling and scheduling) mean predicted Green house gas emissions should fall by 42% and 40% in the two selected operational regions. The adoption of a Multi-wing sail system reduces power requirement by up to 6% at the lower ship speed of 15 knots. The predicted daily cost savings are respectively 27% and 33% in South East Asian and the Caribbean regions.Two hull forms with a cargo capacity of 1270TEU utilising different propulsion combinations were initially developed to meet operational requirements. Analysis & tank testing of different hydrodynamic phenomena has enabled identification of efficiency gains for each design. The final propulsion chosen is a contra-rotating podded drive arrangement. Wind tunnel testing improved Multi-wing sail performance by investigating wing spacing, wing stagger and sail-container interactions. The associated lift coefficient was increased by 32%. Whilst savings in sail-assisted power requirement are lower than initially predicted an unexpected identified benefit was motion damping.The fast feeder-container ship is a proposed as a viable future method of container transhipment

Understanding creativity and wellbeing in migrant communities by examining the role of community language radio in Australia

Introduction: Community language radio occupies an important place in Australia’s multicultural landscape. Members of many language communities arriving in Australia have been denied important opportunities in their home countries including outlets for self-representation and public creativity in their languages. Within Australia, radio provides an accessible means of creative expression, provides vital social connection for community members of all ages and generations, and supports social cohesion on a wider scale. This research explores how community language radio in Australia can play a critical role in supporting the wellbeing of both individuals and communities by providing an accessible and adaptable outlet for creative expression. Methodology: This case study examines the practices of presenters from Australia’s largest community language radio station, 3ZZZ, which reports broadcasting in around 70 languages weekly. In particular, the research questions asked, What are the programming practices and motivations of different language groups in ethnic community radio?; How does creativity feature in the practices of different language groups in ethnic community radio?; and How do these creative practices enhance individual and community wellbeing? A sample of 16 presenters from the station completed an online, mixed-methods survey. Thematic analyses were performed to identify patterns within the qualitative data and SPSSS was used to explore the quantitative data. Findings: For the 3ZZZ radio presenters, the three elements of language, culture, and community are central to their radio program involvement as well as the program’s impact on themselves, their listening audience, and their community. Indeed, it is hard to treat these themes separately given 3ZZZ is an ethnic community radio station that provides a platform for media representation for both presenters and listeners to connect to their culture, their language and their identity. Participants’ responses drew attention to acts of everyday (‘little c’) creativity. Thus, creativity in community language broadcasting is not simply referring to a trait a person might have, or the end products produced as new or innovative; rather, it refers to the process. Creativity in ethnic broadcasting emphasizes how the content is produced and intertwines with the fact that these radio presenters feel empowered from the level of autonomy they have in decision making. In examining the findings concerning wellbeing, it was apparent that being involved in ethnic community broadcasting gives presenters a sense of meaning, vitality, belonging and agency. Moreover, their involvement does not only promote personal wellbeing; in addition, the presenters act as conduits, helping to promote the wellbeing of others and their communities. The presenters’ focus on creating a community platform with their programming provides a way for listeners to connect, stay informed (of current affairs and local events), and actively participate in their communities. At the same time, the language programs are creating the opportunity for listeners to connect to their language, culture and heritage. This helps create a sense of belonging for those living in the community. Discussion: There is a nice synergy in the fact that radio participation facilitates both the presenters’ wellbeing and has benefits for and within the community. In this way, the benefits are not unidirectional. Indeed, it is thus clear to see how relatedness bolsters social capital, which, in turn, bolsters wellbeing. These findings are in line with Ruud’s (2017) theoretical framework of music as a ‘cultural immunogen’. Thus, we argue that, like music, ethnic community radio functions as a cultural immunogen. Strengths and Limitations: While a case station was chosen for the present research, a larger sample size across multiple community radio stations around Australia would enable a broader examination of trends, particularly given the differences in concentration of community languages between states. This would also facilitate a focus on new and emerging community languages, which were not represented in this case study. Additionally, while the findings indicate that these presenters’ practices are largely driven by considerations of their communities, and that the presenters are able to influence the wellbeing of their listeners and broader communities, it is important that future research delves more closely into listeners’ perspectives. For instance, further research could examine how the interaction between presenters and listeners (such as during talkback segments) enables listeners to feel a part of the creative process, and enhances their sense of competence, relatedness, and autonomy—thereby promoting their wellbeing. Conclusions and recommendations for future research: In this study, we aimed to explore the programming practices of different language groups in order to consider how the medium of ethnic community radio might provide a platform for creative practice and, thus, influence wellbeing. The findings highlight how the community broadcasting context allows for autonomy, relatedness and competence; how the process of preparing and presenting community language radio programming is creative in nature; and suggest that the practices lead to wellbeing benefits not only for the presenters but also for the listeners and their communities. Importantly, these findings indicate that the ethnic community broadcasting sector appears on many levels to be a mechanism for enhancing the wellbeing of migrants. Moreover, the results add to our understanding of creativity when considering ordinary individuals’ everyday psychological experiences and behaviours. One interesting avenue for future research is to consider an emerging stream of creativity research that focuses on innovative work around solving problems that communities and societies face (Amabile, 2017, p. 336). It may indeed be fruitful to examine the types of problem-solving practices that are utilised by community language groups when broadcasting during community events and emergencies (e.g., health pandemics, bushfires, floods), and to frame this through the lens of creativity

Simulation and optimisation of terahertz emission from InGaAs and InP photoconductive switches

We simulate the terahertz emission from laterally-biased InGaAs and InP using a three-dimensional carrier dynamics model in order to optimise the semiconductor material. Incident pump-pulse parameters of current Ti:Sapphire and Er:fibre lasers are chosen, and the simulation models the semiconductor's bandstructure using parabolic Gamma, L and X valleys, and heavy holes. The emitted terahertz radiation is propagated within the semiconductor and into free space using a model based on the Drude-Lorentz dielectric function. As the InGaAs alloy approaches InAs an increase in the emitted power is observed, and this is attributed to a greater electron mobility. Additionally, low-temperature grown and ion-implanted InGaAs are modelled using a finite carrier trapping time. At sub-picosecond trapping times the terahertz bandwidth is found to increase significantly at the cost of a reduced emission power.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

In Vitro HPV-11 Infection of Human Foreskin

Study of the infectious process of human papillomavirus type 11 (HPV-11) has been facilitated by the discovery that HPV- 11 – infected neonatal human foreskin epithelium can proliferate as xenografts into condyloma-like growths within athymic nude mice. Here we describe detection of HPV-1 1 infection of neonatal human foreskin-derived keratinocytes, infected and cultured entirely in vitro, by use of the polymerase chain reaction and primers straddling the splice donor/ acceptor site of the most prevalent early gene HPV-11 transcript (E1∧E4). Expression of the E1∧E4 HPV-11 mRNA is abrogated by 60°C heat inactivation of the inoculum. HPV- 11 – infected foreskin explants continue to produce the E1∧E4 mRNA for up to 5 weeks in culture, and second-passage keratinocytes derived from infected explant outgrowths continue to produce the E1∧E4 mRNA. The in vitro system described here provides a new way to study HPV-11 infection and may be useful in evaluating early events of infection

Breast cancer worry in higher-risk women offered preventive therapy: a UK multicentre prospective study

PURPOSE: Women's worry about developing breast cancer may influence their decision to use preventive therapy. However, the direction of this relationship has been questioned. We prospectively investigated the relationship between breast cancer worry and uptake of preventive therapy. The socio-demographic and clinical factors associated with high breast cancer worry were also investigated. METHODS: Women at increased risk of developing breast cancer were recruited from clinics across England (n = 408). Participants completed a survey on their breast cancer worry, socio-demographic and clinical factors. Uptake of tamoxifen was recorded at 3 months (n = 258 women, 63.2%). Both primary and sensitivity analyses were conducted using different classifications of low, medium and high worry. RESULTS: 39.5% of respondents reported medium breast cancer worry at baseline and 21.2% reported high worry. Ethnic minority women were more likely to report high worry than white women (OR = 3.02, 95%CI 1.02, 8.91, p = 0.046). Women educated below degree level were more likely to report high worry than those with higher education (OR = 2.29, 95%CI 1.28, 4.09, p = 0.005). No statistically significant association was observed between worry and uptake. In the primary analysis, fewer respondents with medium worry at baseline initiated tamoxifen (low worry = 15.5%, medium = 13.5%, high = 15.7%). In the sensitivity analysis, participants with medium worry reported the highest uptake of tamoxifen (19.7%). CONCLUSIONS: No association was observed between worry and uptake, although the relationship was affected by the categorisation of worry. Standardised reporting of the classification of worry is warranted to allow transparent comparisons across cohorts

Construction and testing of the optical bench for LISA pathfinder

eLISA is a space mission designed to measure gravitational radiation over a frequency range of 0.1–100 mHz (European Space Agency LISA Assessment Study Report 2011). It uses laser interferometry to measure changes of order $10\,{\rm pm /\sqrt{Hz}}$ in the separation of inertial test masses housed in spacecraft separated by 1 million km. LISA Pathfinder (LPF) is a technology demonstrator mission that will test the key eLISA technologies of inertial test masses monitored by laser interferometry in a drag-free spacecraft. The optical bench that provides the interferometry for LPF must meet a number of stringent requirements: the optical path must be stable at the few ${\rm pm /\sqrt{Hz}}$ level; it must direct the optical beams onto the inertial masses with an accuracy of better than ±25 μm, and it must be robust enough not only to survive launch vibrations but to achieve full performance after launch. In this paper we describe the construction and testing of the flight optical bench for LISA Pathfinder that meets all the design requirements