A Simple Model of Epidemics with Pathogen Mutation

We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted individuals becoming infected only if they are exposed to strains that are significantly different from other strains in their memory repertoire. The second model is a reduction of the first to a system of difference equations. In this case, individuals spend a fixed amount of time in a generalized immune class. In both models, we observe four fundamentally different types of behavior, depending on parameters: (1) pathogen extinction due to lack of contact between individuals, (2) endemic infection (3) periodic epidemic outbreaks, and (4) one or more outbreaks followed by extinction of the epidemic due to extremely low minima in the oscillations. We analyze both models to determine the location of each transition. Our main result is that pathogens in highly connected populations must mutate rapidly in order to remain viable.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figure

High and Persistent HIV Seroincidence in Men Who Have Sex with Men across 47 U.S. Cities

OBJECTIVE: To provide HIV seroincidence data among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States and to identify predictive factors for seroconversion. METHODS: From 1998-2002, 4684 high-risk MSM, age 18-60 years, participated in a randomized, placebo-controlled HIV vaccine efficacy trial at 56 U.S. clinical trial sites. Demographics, behavioral data, and HIV status were assessed at baseline and 6 month intervals. Since no overall vaccine efficacy was detected, data were combined from both trial arms to calculate HIV incidence based on person-years (py) of follow-up. Predictors of seroconversion, adjusted hazards ratio (aHR), were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model with time-varying covariates. RESULTS: Overall, HIV incidence was 2.7/100 py and was relatively uniform across study sites and study years. HIV incidence was highest among young men and men reporting unprotected sex, recreational drug use, and a history of a sexually transmitted infection. Independent predictors of HIV seroconversion included: age 18-30 years (aHR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.4,4.0), having >10 partners (aHR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.7,3.3), having a known HIV-positive male sex partner (aHR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.2, 2.0), unprotected anal intercourse with HIV positive/unknown male partners (aHR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.3, 2.3), and amphetamine (aHR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.1, 2.1) and popper (aHR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.3, 2.2) use. CONCLUSIONS: HIV seroincidence was high among MSM despite repeated HIV counseling and reported declines in sexual risk behaviors. Continuing development of new HIV prevention strategies and intensification of existing efforts will be necessary to reduce the rate of new HIV infections, especially among young men

Planet Formation in the Outer Solar System

This paper reviews coagulation models for planet formation in the Kuiper Belt, emphasizing links to recent observations of our and other solar systems. At heliocentric distances of 35-50 AU, single annulus and multiannulus planetesimal accretion calculations produce several 1000 km or larger planets and many 50-500 km objects on timescales of 10-30 Myr in a Minimum Mass Solar Nebula. Planets form more rapidly in more massive nebulae. All models yield two power law cumulative size distributions, N_C propto r^{-q} with q = 3.0-3.5 for radii larger than 10 km and N_C propto r^{-2.5} for radii less than 1 km. These size distributions are consistent with observations of Kuiper Belt objects acquired during the past decade. Once large objects form at 35-50 AU, gravitational stirring leads to a collisional cascade where 0.1-10 km objects are ground to dust. The collisional cascade removes 80% to 90% of the initial mass in the nebula in roughly 1 Gyr. This dust production rate is comparable to rates inferred for alpha Lyr, beta Pic, and other extrasolar debris disk systems.Comment: invited review for PASP, March 2002. 33 pages of text and 12 figure

Interferometric mapping of the 3.3-mm continuum emission of comet 17P/Holmes after its 2007 outburst

Comet 17P/Holmes underwent a dramatic outburst in October 2007, caused by the sudden fragmentation of its nucleus and the production of a large quantity of grains scattering sunlight. We report on 90 GHz continuum observations carried out with the IRAM Plateau de Bure interferometer on 27.1 and 28.2 October 2007 UT, i.e., 4-5 days after the outburst. These observations probed the thermal radiation of large dust particles, and therefore provide the best constraints on the mass in the ejecta debris. The thermal emission of the debris was modelled and coupled to a time-dependent description of their expansion after the outburst. The analysis was performed in the Fourier plane. Visibilities were computed for the two observing dates and compared to the data to measure their velocity and mass. Optical data and 250-GHz continuum measurements published in the literature were used to further constrain the dust kinematics and size distribution. Two distinct dust components in terms of kinematic properties are identified in the data. The large-velocity component, with typical velocities V0 of 50-100 m/s for 1 mm particles, displays a steep size distribution with a size index estimated to q = -3.7 (\pm0.1), assuming a minimum grain size of 0.1 \mum. It corresponds to the fast expanding shell observed in optical images. The slowly-moving "core" component (V0 = 7-9 m/s) detected near the nucleus has a size index |q| < 3.4 and contains a higher proportion of large particles than the shell. The dust mass in the core is in the range 0.1-1 that of the shell. Using optical constants pertaining to porous grains (50% porosity) made of astronomical silicates mixed with water ice (48% in mass), the total dust mass Mdust injected by the outburst is estimated to 4-14 x 10**11 kg, corresponding to 3-9% the nucleus mass.Comment: 15 pages with 11 figures and 7 tables. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Statistics of Q-Oscillators, Quons and Relation to Fractional Satistics

The statistics of $q$-oscillators, quons and to some extent, of anyons are studied and the basic differences among these objects are pointed out. In particular, the statistical distributions for different bosonic and fermionic $q$-oscillators are found for their corresponding Fock space representations in the case when the hamiltonian is identified with the number operator. In this case and for nonrelativistic particles, the single-particle temperature Green function is defined with $q$-deformed periodicity conditions. The equations of state for nonrelativistic and ultrarelativistic bosonic $q$-gases in an arbitrary space dimension are found near Bose statistics, as well as the one for an anyonic gas near Bose and Fermi statistics. The first corrections to the second virial coefficients are also evaluated. The phenomenon of Bose-Einstein condensation in the $q$-deformed gases is also discussed.Comment: 21 pages, Latex, HU-TFT-93-2

Eph-Dependent Tyrosine Phosphorylation of Ephexin1 Modulates Growth Cone Collapse

SummaryEphs regulate growth cone repulsion, a process controlled by the actin cytoskeleton. The guanine nucleotide exchange factor (GEF) ephexin1 interacts with EphA4 and has been suggested to mediate the effect of EphA on the activity of Rho GTPases, key regulators of the cytoskeleton and axon guidance. Using cultured ephexin1−/− mouse neurons and RNA interference in the chick, we report that ephexin1 is required for normal axon outgrowth and ephrin-dependent axon repulsion. Ephexin1 becomes tyrosine phosphorylated in response to EphA signaling in neurons, and this phosphorylation event is required for growth cone collapse. Tyrosine phosphorylation of ephexin1 enhances ephexin1’s GEF activity toward RhoA while not altering its activity toward Rac1 or Cdc42, thus changing the balance of GTPase activities. These findings reveal that ephexin1 plays a role in axon guidance and is regulated by a switch mechanism that is specifically tailored to control Eph-mediated growth cone collapse

Brain-Specific Phosphorylation of MeCP2 Regulates Activity-Dependent Bdnf Transcription, Dendritic Growth, and Spine Maturation

Mutations or duplications in MECP2 cause Rett and Rett-like syndromes, neurodevelopmental disorders characterized by mental retardation, motor dysfunction, and autistic behaviors. MeCP2 is expressed in many mammalian tissues and functions as a global repressor of transcription; however, the molecular mechanisms by which MeCP2 dysfunction leads to the neural-specific phenotypes of RTT remain poorly understood. Here, we show that neuronal activity and subsequent calcium influx trigger the de novo phosphorylation of MeCP2 at serine 421 (S421) by a CaMKII-dependent mechanism. MeCP2 S421 phosphorylation is induced selectively in the brain in response to physiological stimuli. Significantly, we find that S421 phosphorylation controls the ability of MeCP2 to regulate dendritic patterning, spine morphogenesis, and the activity-dependent induction of Bdnf transcription. These findings suggest that, by triggering MeCP2 phosphorylation, neuronal activity regulates a program of gene expression that mediates nervous system maturation and that disruption of this process in individuals with mutations in MeCP2 may underlie the neural-specific pathology of RTT

Extensive myocardial infiltration by hemopoietic precursors in a patient with myelodysplastic syndrome

BACKGROUND: Although myocardial infiltration with leukemic blasts is a known finding in patients with acute leukemia, this phenomenon in myelodysplasia is not reported in the literature. Cardiac symptoms in patients with myelodysplasia are often due to anemia and may be due to iron overload and side effects of therapy. CASE PRESENTATION: Herein we report the first case of neoplastic infiltration of the heart with associated myocardial necrosis in a patient with myelodysplasia. It was associated with unicellular and multifocal geographic areas of necrosis in the left ventricle and the interventricular septum. It is likely that cardiac compromise in our patient was due to a combination of restrictive cardiomyopathy due to leukemic infiltration, concomitant anemia, cardiac dilatation, conduction blocks and myocardial necrosis. Myocardial necrosis was most likely due to a combination of ischemic damage secondary to anemia and prolonged hypotension and extensive leukemic infiltration. Markedly rapid decrease in ejection fraction from 66% to 33% also suggests the role of ischemia, since leukemic infiltration is not expected to cause this degree of systolic dysfunction over a 24-hour period. The diagnosis was not suspected during life due to concomitant signs and symptoms of anemia, pulmonary infections, and pericardial and pleural effusions. The patient succumbed to cardiac failure. CONCLUSION: Hemopoietic cell infiltration was not considered in the differential diagnosis and contributed to this patient's morbidity and mortality. This case highlights the clinical importance of considering myocardial infiltration in patients with myelodysplasia and cardiac symptoms

Prevalent cases in observational studies of cancer survival: do they bias hazard ratio estimates?

Observational epidemiological studies often include prevalent cases recruited at various times past diagnosis. This left truncation can be dealt with in non-parametric (Kaplan–Meier) and semi-parametric (Cox) time-to-event analyses, theoretically generating an unbiased hazard ratio (HR) when the proportional hazards (PH) assumption holds. However, concern remains that inclusion of prevalent cases in survival analysis results inevitably in HR bias. We used data on three well-established breast cancer prognosticators – clinical stage, histopathological grade and oestrogen receptor (ER) status – from the SEARCH study, a population-based study including 4470 invasive breast cancer cases (incident and prevalent), to evaluate empirically the effectiveness of allowing for left truncation in limiting HR bias. We found that HRs of prognostic factors changed over time and used extended Cox models incorporating time-dependent covariates. When comparing Cox models restricted to subjects ascertained within six months of diagnosis (incident cases) to models based on the full data set allowing for left truncation, we found no difference in parameter estimates (P=0.90, 0.32 and 0.95, for stage, grade and ER status respectively). Our results show that use of prevalent cases in an observational epidemiological study of breast cancer does not bias the HR in a left truncation Cox survival analysis, provided the PH assumption holds true