Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets

This study performs tests of the random walk hypothesis for international commercial real estate markets utilizing stock market indices of real estate share prices for three geographical regions: Europe, Asia and North America. The augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests and Cochrane variance ratio test find that each of these markets (as well as associated broader stock markets) exhibits random walk behavior. Moreover, a non-parametric runs test provides support for weak-form market efficiency in the real estate markets. In addition, Johansen-Juselius co-integration analysis reveals that all three markets appear co-integrated and share a common long-run stochastic trend. Results of co-integration analyses and vector error correction models suggest that diversification benefits through international real estate securities can only be achieved in the short run.

Heat Transfer Mechanisms in Porous Materials and Contemporary Problems in Thermophysical Properties Investigations: Analyses and Solutions

This article is an overview of the topical problems in the investigation of thermophysical properties and the development of a database for porous materials. Determination of both apparent/measured and true thermophysical properties is discussed taking into account combined heat and mass transfer, latent heat effects during chemical and physical transformations, as well as structural changes. The approaches to the solution of these problems are demonstrated for a number of different classes of materials: Industrial refractories, ceramics, highly porous insulation; Moist materials and materials undergoing phase, chemical and structural transformations; Materials semitransparent for heat radiation. The approaches being used in the development of a thermophysical properties database consist in a combination of theoretical and experimental methods. The analysis, generalization, and extrapolation of available reference data can be conducted based on the models for classical (conduction, heat radiation, gas convection) and additional (novel) mechanisms and processes affecting the apparent thermophysical properties. The novel heat transfer mechanisms include: Heterogeneous heat and mass transfer processes occurring in pores existing at grain boundaries and in cracks, in particular, surface segregation and diffusion of impurities on pore surfaces and transport of gases produced from chemical reactions, evaporation, and sublimation. Microstructure changes due to non-uniform thermal expansion of particles and grains. These changes are caused by the mismatch of thermal expansion coefficients of different phases in the material and anisotropic thermal expansion of crystals

Illicit Trade as a Countervailing Effect: What the FDA Would Have to Know to Evaluate Tobacco Regulations

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act [P.L. 111–31] gives the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) the authority to regulate tobacco products, including placing restrictions on product composition, sale, and distribution. A complete accounting of the costs and benefits of any tobacco regulation includes harms from possible illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP): costs of enforcement, violence, incarceration, etc. Indeed, the law instructs the FDA to take into account the “countervailing effects” of regulation on public health, “such as the creation of a significant demand for contraband or other tobacco products that do not meet the requirements.” While the law’s narrow focus on public health may limit the scope of an inquiry by the FDA compared to a full benefit-cost analysis, aspects of ITTP such as violence and incarceration have substantial health impacts. Illicit markets in drugs such as cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine, not to mention the grand experiment of alcohol Prohibition in the early twentieth century, illustrate the substantial risks of unwanted side effects of drug prohibition. But taxes, product limitations, access restrictions, and narrowly defined product bans constitute “lesser prohibitions,” and are subject to the same kind (if not degree) of risks. All tobacco policy-making should therefore consider ITTP. This article sets forth a research agenda for the FDA to consider in order to estimate the effects of contemplated tobacco-product regulation and ITTP. To carry out fully its legislative mandate, the FDA would have to determine the current size and impacts of ITTP, analyze how these may be expected to change under new regulations, and look for interdependencies among tobacco-product markets that may complicate single-product regulation. A more challenging element of the research agenda would be to develop a better theoretical groundwork for the prediction of the emergence, size, and side effects of illicit markets. We close with discussion of how the proposed research agenda may lead to insights into other policy areas as well