Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa.</p

Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

BACKGROUND: The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. METHODS: The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. RESULTS: The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range +/- 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month. CONCLUSION: This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area

Quantum phase transitions and thermodynamic properties in highly anisotropic magnets

The systems exhibiting quantum phase transitions (QPT) are investigated within the Ising model in the transverse field and Heisenberg model with easy-plane single-site anisotropy. Near QPT a correspondence between parameters of these models and of quantum phi^4 model is established. A scaling analysis is performed for the ground-state properties. The influence of the external longitudinal magnetic field on the ground-state properties is investigated, and the corresponding magnetic susceptibility is calculated. Finite-temperature properties are considered with the use of the scaling analysis for the effective classical model proposed by Sachdev. Analytical results for the ordering temperature and temperature dependences of the magnetization and energy gap are obtained in the case of a small ground-state moment. The forms of dependences of observable quantities on the bare splitting (or magnetic field) and renormalized splitting turn out to be different. A comparison with numerical calculations and experimental data on systems demonstrating magnetic and structural transitions (e.g., into singlet state) is performed.Comment: 46 pages, RevTeX, 6 figure

Spatial targeted vector control in the highlands of Burundi and its impact on malaria transmission

BACKGROUND: Prevention of malaria epidemics is a priority for African countries. The 2000 malaria epidemic in Burundi prompted the government to implement measures for preventing future outbreaks. Case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy and malaria surveillance were nationally improved. A vector control programme was initiated in one of the most affected highland provinces. The focal distribution of malaria vectors in the highlands was the starting point for designing a targeted vector control strategy. The objective of this study was to present the results of this strategy on malaria transmission in an African highland region. METHODS: In Karuzi, in 2002-2005, vector control activities combining indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticidal nets were implemented. The interventions were done before the expected malaria transmission period and targeted the valleys between hills, with the expectation that this would also protect the populations living at higher altitudes. The impact on the Anopheles population and on malaria transmission was determined by nine cross-sectional surveys carried out at regular intervals throughout the study period. RESULTS: Anopheles gambiae s.l. and Anopheles funestus represented 95% of the collected anopheline species. In the valleys, where the vector control activities were implemented, Anopheles density was reduced by 82% (95% CI: 69-90). Similarly, transmission was decreased by 90% (95% CI: 63%-97%, p = 0.001). In the sprayed valleys, Anopheles density was further reduced by 79.5% (95% CI: 51.7-91.3, p < 0.001) in the houses with nets as compared to houses without them. No significant impact on vector density and malaria transmission was observed in the hill tops. However, the intervention focused on the high risk areas near the valley floor, where 93% of the vectors are found and 90% of the transmission occurs. CONCLUSION: Spatial targeted vector control effectively reduced Anopheles density and transmission in this highland district. Bed nets have an additional effect on Anopheles density though this did not translate in an additional impact on transmission. Though no impact was observed in the hilltops, the programme successfully covered the areas most at risk. Such a targeted strategy could prevent the emergence and spread of an epidemic from these high risk foci

A steep decline of malaria morbidity and mortality trends in Eritrea between 2000 and 2004: the effect of combination of control methods

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a huge public health problem in Africa that is responsible for more than one million deaths annually. In line with the Roll Back Malaria initiative and the Abuja Declaration, Eritrea and other African countries have intensified their fight against malaria. This study examines the impact of Eritrea's Roll Back Malaria Programme: 2000–2004 and the effects and possible interactions between the public health interventions in use. METHODS: This study employed cross-sectional survey to collect data from households, community and health facilities on coverage and usage of Insecticide-Treated Nets (ITNs), Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), larvicidal activities and malaria case management. Comparative data was obtained from a similar survey carried out in 2001. Data from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) and reports of the annual assessments by the National Malaria Control Programme was used to assess impact. Time series model (ARIMA) was used to assess association. RESULTS: In the period 2000–2004, approximately 874,000 ITNs were distributed and 13,109 health workers and community health agents were trained on malaria case management. In 2004, approximately 81% households owned at least one net, of which 73% were ITNs and 58.6% of children 0–5 years slept under a net. The proportion of malaria cases managed by community health agents rose from 50% in 1999 to 78% in 2004. IRS coverage increased with the combined amount of DDT and Malathion used rising from 6,444 kg, in 2000 to 43,491 kg, in 2004, increasing the population protected from 117,017 to 259,420. Drug resistance necessitated regimen change to chloroquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. During the period, there was a steep decline in malaria morbidity and case fatality by 84% and 40% respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly correlated to the numbers of ITNs distributed (β = -0.125, p < 0.005) and the amount (kg) of DDT and Malathion used for IRS (β = -2.352, p < 0.05). The correlation between malaria case fatality and ITNs, IRS, population protected and annual rainfall was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Eritrea has within 5 years attained key Roll Back Malaria targets. ITNs and IRS contributed most to reducing malaria morbidity

Comparing Models for Early Warning Systems of Neglected Tropical Diseases

Early Warning Systems (EWS) are management tools to predict the occurrence of epidemics. They are based on the dependence of a given infectious disease on environmental variables. Although several neglected tropical diseases are sensitive to the effect of climate, our ability to predict their dynamics has been barely studied. In this paper, we use several models to determine if the relationship between cases and climatic variability is robust—that is, not simply an artifact of model choice. We propose that EWS should be based on results from several models that are to be compared in terms of their ability to predict future number of cases. We use a specific metric for this comparison known as the predictive R2, which measures the accuracy of the predictions. For example, an R2 of 1 indicates perfect accuracy for predictions that perfectly match observed cases. For cutaneous leishmaniasis, R2 values range from 72% to77%, well above predictions using mean seasonal values (64%). We emphasize that predictability should be evaluated with observations that have not been used to fit the model. Finally, we argue that EWS should incorporate climatic variables that are known to have a consistent relationship with the number of observed cases

A simple method for defining malaria seasonality

BACKGROUND: There is currently no standard way of defining malaria seasonality, resulting in a wide range of definitions reported in the literature. Malaria cases show seasonal peaks in most endemic settings, and the choice and timing for optimal malaria control may vary by seasonality. A simple approach is presented to describe the seasonality of malaria, to aid localized policymaking and targeting of interventions. METHODS: A series of systematic literature reviews were undertaken to identify studies reporting on monthly data for full calendar years on clinical malaria, hospital admission with malaria and entomological inoculation rates (EIR). Sites were defined as having 'marked seasonality' if 75% or more of all episodes occurred in six or less months of the year. A 'concentrated period of malaria' was defined as the six consecutive months with the highest cumulative proportion of cases. A sensitivity analysis was performed based on a variety of cut-offs. RESULTS: Monthly data for full calendar years on clinical malaria, all hospital admissions with malaria, and entomological inoculation rates were available for 13, 18, and 11 sites respectively. Most sites showed year-round transmission with seasonal peaks for both clinical malaria and hospital admissions with malaria, with a few sites fitting the definition of 'marked seasonality'. For these sites, consistent results were observed when more than one outcome or more than one calendar year was available from the same site. The use of monthly EIR data was found to be of limited value when looking at seasonal variations of malaria transmission, particularly at low and medium intensity levels. CONCLUSION: The proposed definition discriminated well between studies with 'marked seasonality' and those with less seasonality. However, a poor fit was observed in sites with two seasonal peaks. Further work is needed to explore the applicability of this definition on a wide-scale, using routine health information system data where possible, to aid appropriate targeting of interventions