Information sharing and credit : firm-level evidence from transition countries

We investigate whether information sharing among banks has affected credit market performance in the transition countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, using a large sample of firm-level data. Our estimates show that information sharing is associated with improved availability and lower cost of credit to firms. This correlation is stronger for opaque firms than transparent ones and stronger in countries with weak legal environments than in those with strong legal environments. In cross-sectional estimates, we control for variation in country-level aggregate variables that may affect credit, by examining the differential impact of information sharing across firm types. In panel estimates, we also control for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity at the firm level, as well as for changes in macroeconomic variables and the legal environment

Leading indicators of fiscal distress: evidence from extreme bounds analysis

Early warning systems (EWSs) are widely used to assess a country’s vulnerability to fiscal distress. A fiscal distress episode is identified as a period when government experiences extreme funding difficulties. Most EWSs employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue using extreme bounds analysis, which allows identifying robust leading indicators of fiscal distress from a large set. A robust leading indicator’s effect does not strongly depend on the model specification. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of latest generation crisis models, we find that both fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators are robust. In addition, we find that a fiscal vulnerability indicator based on fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators offers a 29% gain in predictive power compared to a traditional one based only on fiscal leading indicators. This suggests that both fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators should be taken into account when assessing country’s vulnerability to fiscal distress

Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Inequality, and Human Development

This paper examines the two-way relationship between inequality and economic fluctuations, and the implications for human development. For years, the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics, which assumed that income distribution did not matter, at least for macroeconomic behavior, ignored inequality--both its role in causing crises and the effect of fluctuations in general, and crises in particular, on inequality. But the most recent financial crisis has shown the errors in this thinking, and these views are finally beginning to be questioned. Economists who had looked at the average equity of a homeowner--ignoring the distribution--felt comfortable that the economy could easily withstand a large fall in housing prices. When such a fall occurred, however, it had disastrous effects, because a large fraction of homeowners owed more on their homes than the value of the home, leading to waves of foreclosure and economic stress. Policy-makers and economists alike have begun to take note: inequality can contribute to volatility and the creation of crises, and volatility can contribute to inequality. Here, we explore the variety of channels through which inequality affects fluctuations and fluctuations affect inequality, and explore how some of the changes in our economy may have contributed to increased inequality and volatility both directly and indirectly. After describing the two-way relationship, the paper discusses hysteresis--the fact that the consequences of an economic downturn can be long-lived. Then, it examines how policy can either mitigate or exacerbate the inequality consequences of economic downturns, and shows how well-intentioned policies can sometimes be counterproductive. Finally, it links these issues to human development, especially in developing countries

Plasma Dynamics

Contains table of contents for Section 2 and reports on four research projects.Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Subcontract 6264005National Science Foundation Grant ECS 84-13173National Science Foundation Grant ECS 85-14517U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Contract AFOSR 89-0082-AU.S. Army - Harry Diamond Laboratories Contract DAAL02-86-C-0050U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-87-K-2001Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Subcontract B108472National Science Foundation Grant ECS 88-22475U.S. Department of Energy Contract DE-FG02-91-ER-54109National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant NAGW-2048U.S. Department of Energy Contract DE-AC02-ET-51013U.S. Department of Energy Contract DE-AC02-78-ET-5101

Plasma Dynamics

Contains table of contents for Section 2 and reports on three research projects.National Science Foundation Grant ECS 89-02990U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant F49620-93-1-0108U.S. Army - Harry Diamond Laboratories Contract DAAL02-92-K-0037U.S. Department of Energy Grant DE-FG02-91-ER-40648U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-90-J-4130National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant NAGW-2048National Science Foundation Grant ECS 88-22475U.S. Department of Energy Grant DE-FG02-91-ER-54109Magnetic Fusion Science Fellowship Progra

Plasma Dynamics

Contains table of contents for Section 2 and reports on four research projects.Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Subcontract 6264005)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS 84-13173)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS 85-14517)U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientifc Research (Contract AFOSR 84-0026)U.S. Army - Harry Diamond Laboratories (Contract DAAL02-86-C-0050)U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research (Contract N00014-87-K-2001)U.S. Department of Energy (Contract DE-AC02-78-ET-51013)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS 85-1 5032

Plasma Dynamics

Contains table of contents for Section 2 and reports on four research projects.National Science Foundation Grant ECS-89-02990U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant AFOSR 89-0082-CU.S. Army - Harry Diamond Laboratories Contract DAAL02-89-K-0084U.S. Army - Harry Diamond Laboratories Contract DAAL02-92-K-0037U.S. Department of Energy Contract DE-AC02-90ER-40591U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-90-J-4130Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories Subcontract B-160456National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant NAGW-2048National Science Foundation Grant ECS-88-22475U.S. Department of Energy Grant DE-FG02-91-ER-5410

Plasma Dynamics

Contains reports on five research projects.U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientifc Research (Contract AFOSR 84-0026)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS 85-14517)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Subcontract 6264005)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS 85-15032)U.S. Department of Energy (Contract DE-ACO2-78-ET-51013)U.S. Department of Energy (Contract DE-ACO2-ET-51013