A simple statistical model for prediction of acute coronary syndrome in chest pain patients in the emergency department

BACKGROUND: Several models for prediction of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) among chest pain patients in the emergency department (ED) have been presented, but many models predict only the likelihood of acute myocardial infarction, or include a large number of variables, which make them less than optimal for implementation at a busy ED. We report here a simple statistical model for ACS prediction that could be used in routine care at a busy ED. METHODS: Multivariable analysis and logistic regression were used on data from 634 ED visits for chest pain. Only data immediately available at patient presentation were used. To make ACS prediction stable and the model useful for personnel inexperienced in electrocardiogram (ECG) reading, simple ECG data suitable for computerized reading were included. RESULTS: Besides ECG, eight variables were found to be important for ACS prediction, and included in the model: age, chest discomfort at presentation, symptom duration and previous hypertension, angina pectoris, AMI, congestive heart failure or PCI/CABG. At an ACS prevalence of 21% and a set sensitivity of 95%, the negative predictive value of the model was 96%. CONCLUSION: The present prediction model, combined with the clinical judgment of ED personnel, could be useful for the early discharge of chest pain patients in populations with a low prevalence of ACS

Utility of stages of change construct in the planning of physical activity interventions among playgroup mothers

Background: The objective of this research was to assess the physical activity levels among a unique cohort of Western Australian (WA) mothers with young children who attend a WA Playgroup. Associated factors were also investigated, including self-efficacy for physical activity, social support for exercise, relevant socio-demographic correlates, as well as the stages of change construct within the Transtheoretical Model (TTM).Results: 421 women completed a questionnaire assessing physical activity behaviours. Of these, 368 participants completed the relevant physical activity evaluation items. 82.5% and 17.5% of the sample were classified as active and inactive, respectively. Associations between physical activity status and exercise stage of change were found. Additional associations were established for partner support and self-efficacy for physical activity. Conclusion: The majority of the sample was classified as active. Despite the high percentage of active participants, this study confirms the usefulness of the stages of change measure in that it can be utilised by health promotion practitioners to report physical activity behaviour and develop appropriate intervention strategies among a time poor and hard to reach population. Specifically the results are relevant to mothers in over 16,000 WA families who are involved with Playgroup WA programs. Interventions aimed at improving physical activity levels in mothers with young children should also consider the need to improve self-efficacy and social support

Dual versus triple therapy in eradication of Helicobacter pylori

Background/Aims: Duodenal ulcers should be treated by eradication of Helicobacter pylori. This study compared the efficacy of a proton pump inhibitor together with one or two antibiotics in eradication therapy, Methodology: 177 patients who were H. pylori positive were randomized to receive 14 days of either: lansoprazole 30mg bd and amoxicillin 1g bd (LA), omeprazole 20mg bd and amoxicillin 1g bd (OA) or lansoprazole 30mg bd, amoxicillin 1g bd and clarithromycin 500mg bd (LAC). The efficacy was assessed at four weeks and at six months after the end of treatment. Biopsies were taken for culture and bacterial sensitivity testing at inclusion and at four weeks after the end of treatment. Results: 149 patients were evaluated for efficacy. The eradication rate was significantly higher in LAC (96%) compared to LA (51%) and OA (64%) treatments (P<0.001). At baseline 17%, 21% and 19% of the patients in the LA, OA and LAC groups, respectively, were resistant to metronidazole and only one patient was resistant to clarithromycin. Post-treatment, four patients had acquired metronidazole resistance. Conclusions: LAC is more effective than LA and CA for eradication of H. pylori in duodenal ulcer disease