Scratches from the Past: Inflationary Archaeology through Features in the Power Spectrum of Primordial Fluctuations

Inflation may provide unique insight into the physics at the highest available energy scales that cannot be replicated in any realistic terrestrial experiment. Features in the primordial power spectrum are generically predicted in a wide class of models of inflation and its alternatives, and are observationally one of the most overlooked channels for finding evidence for non-minimal inflationary models. Constraints from observations of the cosmic microwave background cover the widest range of feature frequencies, but the most sensitive constraints will come from future large-scale structure surveys that can measure the largest number of linear and quasi-linear modes.Comment: 5 pages + references, 1 figure; science white paper submitted to the Astro2020 decadal surve

Optimal Carbon Taxes for Emissions Targets in the Electricity Sector

The most dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change can be mitigated by using emissions taxes or other regulatory interventions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper takes a regulatory viewpoint and describes the Weighted Sum Bisection method to determine the lowest emission tax rate that can reduce the anticipated emissions of the power sector below a prescribed, regulatorily-defined target. This bi-level method accounts for a variety of operating conditions via stochastic programming and remains computationally tractable for realistically large planning test systems, even when binary commitment decisions and multi-period constraints on conventional generators are considered. Case studies on a modified ISO New England test system demonstrate that this method reliably finds the minimum tax rate that meets emissions targets. In addition, it investigates the relationship between system investments and the tax-setting process. Introducing GHG emissions taxes increases the value proposition for investment in new cleaner generation, transmission, and energy efficiency; conversely, investing in these technologies reduces the tax rate required to reach a given emissions target

Incentivizing Investment and Reliability: A Study on Electricity Capacity Markets

The capacity market, a marketplace to exchange available generation capacity for electricity production, provides a major revenue stream for generators and is adopted in several U.S. regions. A subject of ongoing debate, the capacity market is viewed by its proponents as a crucial mechanism to ensure system reliability, while critics highlight its drawbacks such as market distortion. Under a novel analytical framework, we rigorously evaluate the impact of the capacity market on generators' revenue and system reliability. More specifically, based on market designs at New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), we propose market equilibrium-based models to capture salient aspects of the capacity market and its interaction with the energy market. We also develop a leader-follower model to study market power. We show that the capacity market incentivizes the investment of generators with lower net cost of new entry. It also facilitates reliability by preventing significant physical withholding when the demand is relatively high. Nevertheless, the capacity market may not provide enough revenue for peaking plants. Moreover, it is susceptible to market power, which necessitates tailored market power mitigation measures depending on market dynamics. We provide further insights via large-scale experiments on data from NYISO markets

Genome-wide analysis of single-locus and epistasis single-nucleotide polymorphism effects on anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide as a measure of rheumatoid arthritis

The goal of this study was to identify single-locus and epistasis effects of SNP markers on anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) that is associated with rheumatoid arthritis, using the North American Rheumatoid Arthritis Consortium data. A square root transformation of the phenotypic values of anti-CCP with sex, smoking status, and a selected subset of 20 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers in the model achieved residual normality (p > 0.05). Three single-locus effects of two SNPs were significant (p < 10-4). The epistasis analysis tested five effects of each pair of SNPs, the two-locus interaction, additive × additive, additive × dominance, dominance × additive, and dominance × dominance effects. A total of ten epistasis effects of eight pairs of SNPs on 11 autosomes and the X chromosome had significant epistasis effects (p < 10-7). Three of these epistasis effects reached significance levels of p < 10-8, p < 10-9, and p < 10-10, respectively. Two potential SNP epistasis networks were identified. The results indicate that the genetic factors underlying anti-CCP may include single-gene action and gene interactions and that the gene-interaction mechanism underlying anti-CCP could be a complex mechanism involving pairwise epistasis effects and multiple SNPs

Probing patchy reionization through tau-21cm correlation statistics

We consider the cross-correlation between free electrons and neutral hydrogen during the epoch of reionization (EoR). The free electrons are traced by the optical depth to reionization τ, while the neutral hydrogen can be observed through 21 cm photon emission. As expected, this correlation is sensitive to the detailed physics of reionization. Foremost, if reionization occurs through the merger of relatively large halos hosting an ionizing source, the free electrons and neutral hydrogen are anticorrelated for most of the reionization history. A positive contribution to the correlation can occur when the halos that can form an ionizing source are small. A measurement of this sign change in the cross-correlation could help disentangle the bias and the ionization history. We estimate the signal-to-noise ratio of the cross-correlation using the estimator for inhomogeneous reionization $\hat{\tau }_{\ell m}$ proposed by Dvorkin and Smith. We find that with upcoming radio interferometers and cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments, the cross-correlation is measurable going up to multipoles ℓ ~ 1000. We also derive parameter constraints and conclude that, despite the foregrounds, the cross-correlation provides a complementary measurement of the EoR parameters to the 21 cm and CMB polarization autocorrelations expected to be observed in the coming decade.Physic

CMBPol Mission Concept Study: Probing Inflation with CMB Polarization

We summarize the utility of precise cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization measurements as probes of the physics of inflation. We focus on the prospects for using CMB measurements to differentiate various inflationary mechanisms. In particular, a detection of primordial B-mode polarization would demonstrate that inflation occurred at a very high energy scale, and that the inflaton traversed a super-Planckian distance in field space. We explain how such a detection or constraint would illuminate aspects of physics at the Planck scale. Moreover, CMB measurements can constrain the scale-dependence and non-Gaussianity of the primordial fluctuations and limit the possibility of a significant isocurvature contribution. Each such limit provides crucial information on the underlying inflationary dynamics. Finally, we quantify these considerations by presenting forecasts for the sensitivities of a future satellite experiment to the inflationary parameters.Comment: 107 pages, 14 figures, 17 tables; Inflation Working Group contribution to the CMBPol Mission Concept Study; v2: typos fixed and references adde

Mapping Cosmic Dawn and Reionization: Challenges and Synergies

Cosmic dawn and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) are among the least explored observational eras in cosmology: a time at which the first galaxies and supermassive black holes formed and reionized the cold, neutral Universe of the post-recombination era. With current instruments, only a handful of the brightest galaxies and quasars from that time are detectable as individual objects, due to their extreme distances. Fortunately, a multitude of multi-wavelength intensity mapping measurements, ranging from the redshifted 21 cm background in the radio to the unresolved X-ray background, contain a plethora of synergistic information about this elusive era. The coming decade will likely see direct detections of inhomogenous reionization with CMB and 21 cm observations, and a slew of other probes covering overlapping areas and complementary physical processes will provide crucial additional information and cross-validation. To maximize scientific discovery and return on investment, coordinated survey planning and joint data analysis should be a high priority, closely coupled to computational models and theoretical predictions.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Science White Paper cal