International Rice Outlook: International Rice Baseline Projections 2020-2030

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and subsequent lockdowns impacted all economies worldwide and created an economic recession far graver than the Great Recession, contracting the global growth of gross domestic product (GDP) nearly by 4.0% in 2020, compared to -2.0% in 2009 (IHS Markit database). COVID-19 disrupted global and local food supply chains, and resulted in a significant increase in food prices (FAO, 2021). Both global and domestic rice prices increased, driven primarily by temporary export restrictions imposed by several leading rice exporters, such as Vietnam and Myanmar. The market uncertainty also created in panic-buying and hoarding; consequently, the rice demand spiked in similar to that was observed during the 2007- 2008 rice crisis. For example, Thai 100% B and Vietnamese 5% long-grain rice prices increased by 30% and 25%, respectively, between March and May 2020 relative to the same period in 2019 (Fig. 1). Although prices in the international market have receded some since then, they remain higher than expected despite the record-high global rice production in 2020

International Rice Outlook: International Rice Baseline Projections 2021–2031

The war in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are pushing input costs to record levels. Although rice prices have increased some in the last several months, production costs have increased more than proportionally, undermining rice profitability. We project global rice production will surpass global rice consumption for most of the coming decade, with a small deficit developing by the end of the projected period. The projected growth in production is almost exclusively due to productivity gains since the global rice area is projected to increase only marginally by 2029–2031. The projected growth in global rice consumption is exclusively based on population growth, as the average global per-capita consumption of rice is estimated to decrease in the coming decade. The international price of long-grain and medium-grain rice is projected to increase in nominal terms but decrease in real terms in the next decade due to ample rice supplies. We project that rice demand in Africa will continue to grow at a high pace, thus supporting a fast growth in regional production and imports. Global rice trade is projected to increase in nominal and relative (to supply) terms, with Africa being the main driver of the expansion. Rice exports will remain highly concentrated among the top-5 exporters. India will remain the largest exporter of rice, while Thailand will consolidate as the second largest exporter in the coming decade. Myanmar and Cambodia are expected to grow their export market share, while Vietnam, Pakistan, and the U.S. are expected to lose market share in the coming decade. On the rice import side, we project that China, the Philippines, the EU, and Saudi Arabia will lose market share, while Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, and Iran will grow their market shares by 2029–2031 relative to the situation in 2018–2020

International Rice Outlook: International Rice Baseline Projections 2022-2032

Rice prices in Asia increased since the Summer of 2022 mainly due to worries about a reduction in rice production in India caused by an abnormal monsoon season (Fig. 1). The upward trend in export prices solidified after India implemented a 20% export tariff on brown and milled long-grain rice, and a complete ban on exports of broken rice, in September 2022 to curve down exports and release the pressure on domestic rice prices. India’s rice export prices increased since then and proportionally to the value of the export tax. The latest estimates put rice production at 128 million metric tons (mmt) in 2022/2023, only slightly below the record-high production of 129.5 mmt in 2021/2022. The export prices out of Thailand and Vietnam increased 14% and 16% between September 2022 and April 2023 in accordance with the higher export prices of India (Fig. 1). Despite the export tariff, India remains the most competitive supplier among the top Asian exporters. The U.S. export price for long-grain rice has been consistently above that of other Asian exporters, but the gap widened even more in 2022 after two consecutive short U.S. crops

International Rice Outlook: International Rice Baseline Projections 2022-2032

Rice prices in Asia increased since the Summer of 2022 mainly due to worries about a reduction in rice production in India caused by an abnormal monsoon season (Fig. 1). The upward trend in export prices solidified after India implemented a 20% export tariff on brown and milled long-grain rice, and a complete ban on exports of broken rice, in September 2022 to curve down exports and release the pressure on domestic rice prices. India’s rice export prices increased since then and proportionally to the value of the export tax. The latest estimates put rice production at 128 million metric tons (mmt) in 2022/2023, only slightly below the record-high production of 129.5 mmt in 2021/2022. The export prices out of Thailand and Vietnam increased 14% and 16% between September 2022 and April 2023 in accordance with the higher export prices of India (Fig. 1). Despite the export tariff, India remains the most competitive supplier among the top Asian exporters. The U.S. export price for long-grain rice has been consistently above that of other Asian exporters, but the gap widened even more in 2022 after two consecutive short U.S. crops

Identifying Arkansas Food Desert Blocks Suitable for a Peer-to-Peer Modeled Food Redistribution Program

Abstract Nearly 10% of Americans reside in low-income urban food deserts which are low-income areas that lack access to affordable and nutritious foods. Food deserts in Arkansas contribute to a food insecurity rate above the national average, making it one of the most food insecure states in the country. Increased internet usage and consumer interest in sharing based companies contribute to the idea of a sharing, or peer-to-peer (P2P) style food redistribution program. The objective of this study is to identify which of the 186,211census blocks in the state of Arkansas are food deserts and best suited for and in the most need, based on an identified set of criteria, of a P2P food redistribution program. A multi-criteria decision analysis was conducted using population, internet access, vulnerable communities, and vehicle availability as criteria. Results suggest that based upon the close proximity of priority areas, transportation access, ethnic/racial diversity, and the number of possible collection locations, Pulaski County be targeted for a P2P food redistribution pilot program

The Benefits of the Arkansas Rice Check-Off Program

As margins are reducing for agricultural producers there is a concerted effort to analyze all costs. One such cost for rice producers in Arkansas is their contribution to the Rice Check-off Program. This study analyzes the cost-benefit ratio of funds contributed by Arkansas rice producers and the holistic (both economic and environmental) benefits they receive. This study analyzes just five of the many programs the Rice Check-off Program invests in through the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture (UASDA) and suggests that every dollar invested generated an average return of $28.49 between 2002–2018 ($70.45 when ecosystem benefits are included). That being said, our benefit-cost ratios of 28.49 to 1 and 70.45 to 1, are conservative estimates as we are comparing the total Rice Checkoff funding provided to the UASDA to the benefits of just five of its funded programs. These same investments have resulted in an increase in the rice supply sufficient enough to feed 4.15 million people annually. Rice Check-off funds have consistently provided substantial benefits from their investments

TARIFF ESCALATION: IMPACTS ON U.S. AND GLOBAL RICE TRADE

Tariff escalation is an important aspect of protection for domestic milling industries, particularly in Central America. The United States exports over 40 percent of its rice as paddy. This study uses a spatial equilibrium trade model to evaluate the impacts of tariff escalation on U.S. and global long grain paddy and milled rice trade. Tariffs are harmonized for paddy and milled rice at two levels: milled tariff rates and zero. The results indicate that tariff escalation distorts US rice trade in favor of paddy exports, reducing the demand for rice milling and associated value-added activities in the US