381 research outputs found
Nonparametric Bayes dynamic modeling of relational data
Symmetric binary matrices representing relations among entities are commonly
collected in many areas. Our focus is on dynamically evolving binary relational
matrices, with interest being in inference on the relationship structure and
prediction. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian dynamic model, which reduces
dimensionality in characterizing the binary matrix through a lower-dimensional
latent space representation, with the latent coordinates evolving in continuous
time via Gaussian processes. By using a logistic mapping function from the
probability matrix space to the latent relational space, we obtain a flexible
and computational tractable formulation. Employing P\`olya-Gamma data
augmentation, an efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior
computation, with the dimension of the latent space automatically inferred. We
provide some theoretical results on flexibility of the model, and illustrate
performance via simulation experiments. We also consider an application to
co-movements in world financial markets
Bayesian dynamic financial networks with time-varying predictors
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model including time-varying predictors
in dynamic network inference. The model is applied to infer the dependence
structure among financial markets during the global financial crisis,
estimating effects of verbal and material cooperation efforts. We interestingly
learn contagion effects, with increasing influence of verbal relations during
the financial crisis and opposite results during the United States housing
bubble
Bayesian Compressed Regression
As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional
regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis.
This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing
well when the predictors can be projected to a low dimensional linear subspace
with minimal loss of information about the response. As opposed to existing
Bayesian dimensionality reduction approaches, the exact posterior distribution
conditional on the compressed data is available analytically, speeding up
computation by many orders of magnitude while also bypassing robustness issues
due to convergence and mixing problems with MCMC. Model averaging is used to
reduce sensitivity to the random projection matrix, while accommodating
uncertainty in the subspace dimension. Strong theoretical support is provided
for the approach by showing near parametric convergence rates for the
predictive density in the large p small n asymptotic paradigm. Practical
performance relative to competitors is illustrated in simulations and real data
applications.Comment: 29 pages, 4 figure
Locally Adaptive Dynamic Networks
Our focus is on realistically modeling and forecasting dynamic networks of
face-to-face contacts among individuals. Important aspects of such data that
lead to problems with current methods include the tendency of the contacts to
move between periods of slow and rapid changes, and the dynamic heterogeneity
in the actors' connectivity behaviors. Motivated by this application, we
develop a novel method for Locally Adaptive DYnamic (LADY) network inference.
The proposed model relies on a dynamic latent space representation in which
each actor's position evolves in time via stochastic differential equations.
Using a state space representation for these stochastic processes and
P\'olya-gamma data augmentation, we develop an efficient MCMC algorithm for
posterior inference along with tractable procedures for online updating and
forecasting of future networks. We evaluate performance in simulation studies,
and consider an application to face-to-face contacts among individuals in a
primary school
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