Implementation of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to inorganic aerosol modeling of observations from the MCMA-2003 campaign ? Part I: Model description and application to the La Merced site

International audienceThe equilibrium inorganic aerosol model ISORROPIA was embedded in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to develop a powerful tool to analyze aerosol data and predict gas phase concentrations where these are unavailable. The method directly incorporates measurement uncertainty, prior knowledge, and provides a formal framework to combine measurements of different quality. The method was applied to particle- and gas-phase precursor observations taken at La Merced during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) 2003 Field Campaign and served to discriminate between diverging gas-phase observations of ammonia and predict gas-phase concentrations of hydrochloric acid. The model reproduced observations of particle-phase ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate well. The most likely concentrations of ammonia were found to vary between 4 and 26 ppbv, while the range for nitric acid was 0.1 to 55 ppbv. During periods where the aerosol chloride observations were consistently above the detection limit, the model was able to reproduce the aerosol chloride observations well and predicted the most likely gas-phase hydrochloric acid concentration varied between 0.4 and 5 ppbv. Despite the high ammonia concentrations observed and predicted by the model, when the aerosols were assumed to be in the efflorescence branch they are predicted to be acidic (pH~3)

Implementation of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to inorganic aerosol modeling of observations from the MCMA-2003 campaign ? Part II: Model application to the CENICA, Pedregal and Santa Ana sites

International audienceA Markov Chain Monte Carlo model for integrating the observations of inorganic species with a thermodynamic equilibrium model was presented in Part I of this series. Using observations taken at three ground sites, i.e. a residential, industrial and rural site, during the MCMA-2003 campaign in Mexico City, the model is used to analyze the inorganic particle and ammonia data and to predict gas phase concentrations of nitric and hydrochloric acid. In general, the model is able to accurately predict the observed inorganic particle concentrations at all three sites. The agreement between the predicted and observed gas phase ammonia concentration is excellent. The NOz concentration calculated from the NOy, NO and NO2 observations is of limited use in constraining the gas phase nitric acid concentration given the large uncertainties in this measure of nitric acid and additional reactive nitrogen species. Focusing on the acidic period of 9?11 April identified by Salcedo et al. (2006), the model accurately predicts the particle phase observations during this period with the exception of the nitrate predictions after 10:00 a.m. (Central Daylight Time, CDT) on 9 April, where the model underpredicts the observations by, on average, 20%. This period had a low planetary boundary layer, very high particle concentrations, and higher than expected nitrogen dioxide concentrations. For periods when the particle chloride observations are consistently above the detection limit, the model is able to both accurately predict the particle chloride mass concentrations and provide well-constrained HCl (g) concentrations. The availability of gas-phase ammonia observations helps constrain the predicted HCl (g) concentrations. When the particles are aqueous, the most likely concentrations of HCl (g) are in the sub-ppbv range. The most likely predicted concentration of HCl (g) was found to reach concentrations of order 10 ppbv if the particles are dry. Finally, the atmospheric relevance of HCl (g) is discussed in terms of its indicator properties for the possible influence of chlorine-mediated photochemistry in Mexico City

Characterization of on-road vehicle emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area using a mobile laboratory in chase and fleet average measurement modes during the MCMA-2003 field campaign

International audienceA mobile laboratory was used to measure on-road vehicle emission ratios during the MCMA-2003 field campaign held during the spring of 2003 in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The measured emission ratios represent a sample of emissions of in-use vehicles under real world driving conditions for the MCMA. From the relative amounts of NOx and selected VOC's sampled, the results indicate that the technique is capable of differentiating among vehicle categories and fuel type in real world driving conditions. Emission ratios for NOx, NOy, NH3, H2CO, CH3CHO, and other selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are presented for chase sampled vehicles in the form of frequency distributions as well as estimates for the fleet averaged emissions. Our measurements of emission ratios for both CNG and gasoline powered "colectivos" (public transportation buses that are intensively used in the MCMA) indicate that ? in a mole per mole basis ? have significantly larger NOx and aldehydes emissions ratios as compared to other sampled vehicles in the MCMA. Similarly, ratios of selected VOCs and NOy showed a strong dependence on traffic mode. These results are compared with the vehicle emissions inventory for the MCMA, other vehicle emissions measurements in the MCMA, and measurements of on-road emissions in U.S. cities. We estimate NOx emissions as 100 600±29 200 metric tons per year for light duty gasoline vehicles in the MCMA for 2003. According to these results, annual NOx emissions estimated in the emissions inventory for this category are within the range of our estimated NOx annual emissions. Our estimates for motor vehicle emissions of benzene, toluene, formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde in the MCMA indicate these species are present in concentrations higher than previously reported. The high motor vehicle aldehyde emissions may have an impact on the photochemistry of urban areas