DETECTING EVIDENCE OF NON-COMPLIANCE IN SELF-REPORTED POLLUTION EMISSIONS DATA: AN APPLICATION OF BENFORD'S LAW

The paper introduces Digital Frequency Analysis (DFA) based on Benford's Law as a new technique for detecting non-compliance in self-reported pollution emissions data. Public accounting firms are currently adopting DFA to detect fraud in financial data. We argue that DFA can be employed by environmental regulators to detect fraud in self-reported pollution emissions data. The theory of Benford's Law is reviewed, and statistical justifications for its potentially widespread applicability are presented. Several common DFA tests are described and applied to North Carolina air pollution emissions data in an empirical example.Benford, digital frequency analysis, pollution monitoring, pollution regulation, enforcement, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q25, Q28,

The Potential Economic Benefits of Integrated and Sustainable Ocean Observation Systems: The Southeast Atlantic Region

The South East Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing System (SEACOOS) collects, manages and disseminates coastal oceanic and atmospheric observation information along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. This paper estimates the benefits of SEACOOS information in eleven benefit categories. Following a methodology used in similar studies of other U.S. coastal regions, we evaluate the impacts of conservative changes in economic activity in each sector. The annual economic benefit of SEACOOS information is $170 million (2003$'s), an estimate that falls between annual benefits of $33 million for the Gulf of Maine region and$381 million for the Gulf of Mexico.

Spatial Hedonic Models for Measuring the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Real Estate

This study uses a unique integration of geospatial and hedonic property data to estimate the impact of sea-level rise on coastal real estate in North Carolina. North Carolina’s coastal plain is one of several large terrestrial systems around the world threatened by rising sea-levels. High-resolution topographic LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data are used to provide accurate inundation maps for all properties that will be at risk under six different sea-level rise scenarios. A simulation approach based on spatial hedonic models is used to provide consistent estimates of the property value losses. Results indicate that the northern part of the North Carolina coastline is comparatively more vulnerable to the effect of sea-level rise than the southern part. Low-lying and heavily developed areas in the northern coastline are especially at high risk from sea-level rise. Key Words: Climate change, coastal real estate, sea-level rise, spatial hedonic models

Measuring the Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Marine Recreational Shore Fishing in North Carolina

We develop estimates of the economic effects of sea level rise on marine recreational shore fishing in North Carolina. We estimate the relationship between angler behavior and spatial differences in beach width using the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistics Survey and geospatial data. We exploit the empirical relationship between beach width and site choice by simulating the effects of (1) sea level rise on beach width and (2) beach width on angler site choice. We find that the welfare losses are potentially substantial, ranging up to a present value of $1.26 billion over 75 years. Key Words: marine recreational fishing, travel cost method, climate change, sea level rise

Estimation and Analysis of Expenses of In-Lieu-Fee Projects that Mitigate Damage to Streams from Land Disturbance in North Carolina

As North Carolina’s economy has grown, the need to mitigate adverse impacts of land disturbance on aquatic ecosystems has also grown. When land disturbance adversely affects streams, a developer or the state’s Department of Transportation can satisfy mitigation requirements through payment of fees to the state’s Ecosystem Enhancement Program (EEP). EEP then manages a stream mitigation project on behalf of the responsible party. EEP has had regulatory authority to require stream mitigation for 10 years. The needs of EEP to reassess its mitigation fee and identify ways to reduce costs of the program have grown over the decade. The first objective of this study was to account for all EEP expenses of design-bid and design-bid-build projects. The second objective was to analyze the determinants of contractual expenses with a cost function. EEP has spent or committed to spend $46.34 million for 45 design-build or designbid-build projects to restore or enhance 191,374 ft. of streams. Expenses per foot have been$242.12. Given its mandate to cover expenses for stream mitigation, EEP must raise mitigation fees, especially those for urban projects, make changes to reduce project expenses, or do both. As the length of a restored or enhanced stream increases, the expenses per foot decrease. The decrease is more pronounced in undeveloped, rural areas. Thus, EEP could produce mitigation for less expense by financing fewer projects with longer reaches or by financing more projects in undeveloped, rural areas. Other states with in-lieu-fee programs for compensatory mitigation might also use these results to reduce contractual expenses.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Estimating Peak Demand for Beach Parking Spaces

The United States Army Corps of Engineers planning guidance stipulates that in order for local beach communities to qualify for Federal cost share funds for Hurricane and Storm Damage Reduction beach renourishment projects, the community must provide public beach access and parking to satisfy peak demand. This study presents a method for estimating peak demand for beach parking spaces in the presence of parking constraints. A Tobit regression model is developed to estimate the number of parking spaces that would be necessary to meet unconstrained demand on a given percentage of peak demand days. For example, the model can be used to estimate the number of parking spaces that would be adequate to meet peak demand on 90% of peak parking days. The Tobit model provides a promising framework for estimating peak parking demand under constrained parking conditions, a situation that characterizes most beach communities.

Measuring the impacts of climate change on North Carolina coastal resources

Current scientific research shows that the global sea level is expected to rise significantly over the next century. The relatively dense development and abundant economic activity along much of the U.S. coastline is vulnerable to risk of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and storm damages. In this study we examine the impacts of climate change on North Carolina coastal resources. We consider three important areas of the coastal economy: the impacts of sea-level rise on the coastal real estate market, the impacts of sea-level rise on coastal recreation and tourism and the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes on business activity. Our baseline year is 2004. All the impacts in this study are measured in 2004 U.S. dollars

The potential economic benefits of integrated and sustainable ocean observation systems: The Southeast Atlantic region

The South East Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing System (SEACOOS) collects, manages and disseminates coastal oceanic and atmospheric observation information along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. This paper estimates the benefits of SEACOOS information in eleven benefit categories. Following a methodology used in similar studies of other U.S. coastal regions, we evaluate the impacts of conservative changes in economic activity in each sector. The annual economic benefit of SEACOOS information is $170 million (2003$'s), an estimate that falls between annual benefits of $33 million for the Gulf of Maine region and$381 million for the Gulf of Mexico

Measuring the economic impacts of sea-level rise on marine recreational shore fishing in North Carolina

In this study we develop estimates of the economic effects of climate change-induced sea level rise on marine recreational shore fishing in North Carolina. We estimate the relationship between angler behavior and spatial differences in beach width using Marine Recreation Fishing Statistics Survey and geospatial data. We exploit this relationship by simulating the effects of sea level rise on beach width and beach width on angler behavior. We find that impacts on anglers’ economic welfare are potentially substantial, ranging up to a present value of $1.29 billion over 75 years, using conservative estimates of fishing participation growth and a 2lost business sales, labor income, capital income, and state and local tax revenue in coastal North Carolina due to reduced angler spending amount to$828 million, $307 million,$130 million, and $63 million, respectively, resulting in the loss of over 500 jobs

Hurricanes and Homeowner Decision-Making

The researchers conducted surveys between 2001 and 2002 that examined homeowner decisions concerning wind damage to homes from hurricanes. They collected information about current mitigation practices, expectation of damage, and willingness to pay for future mitigation improvements. Their key findings were that income, size of the deductible, and expected damages from a category three hurricane—but not category four or five hurricanes—were the main determining factors for people that do mitigation. Homeowners generally dismissed low probability events. They found that homeowner willingness to pay for mitigation devices is negative and requires subsidy in excess of $14,000. Willingness to pay is greater if insurance is not available. They concluded that most homeowners are not willing to purchase excessive mitigation devices