On parameter estimation in an in vitro compartmental model for drug-induced enzyme production in pharmacotherapy

summary:A pharmacodynamic model introduced earlier in the literature for in silico prediction of rifampicin-induced CYP3A4 enzyme production is described and some aspects of the involved curve-fitting based parameter estimation are discussed. Validation with our own laboratory data shows that the quality of the fit is particularly sensitive with respect to an unknown parameter representing the concentration of the nuclear receptor PXR (pregnane X receptor). A detailed analysis of the influence of that parameter on the solution of the model's system of ordinary differential equations is given and it is pointed out that some ingredients of the analysis might be useful for more general pharmacodynamic models. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the performance of related parameter estimation procedures based on least-squares minimization

The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns

BACKGROUND: Global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses (WPVs) continue to face challenges due to uninterrupted endemic WPV transmission in three countries and importation-related outbreaks into previously polio-free countries. We explore the potential role of including older children and adults in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) to more rapidly increase population immunity and prevent or stop transmission. METHODS: We use a differential equation-based dynamic poliovirus transmission model to analyze the epidemiological impact and vaccine resource implications of expanding target age groups in SIAs. We explore the use of older age groups in SIAs for three situations: alternative responses to the 2010 outbreak in Tajikistan, retrospective examination of elimination in two high-risk states in northern India, and prospective and retrospective strategies to accelerate elimination in endemic northwestern Nigeria. Our model recognizes the ability of individuals with waned mucosal immunity (i.e., immunity from a historical live poliovirus infection) to become re-infected and contribute to transmission to a limited extent. RESULTS: SIAs involving expanded age groups reduce overall caseloads, decrease transmission, and generally lead to a small reduction in the time to achieve WPV elimination. Analysis of preventive expanded age group SIAs in Tajikistan or prior to type-specific surges in incidence in high-risk areas of India and Nigeria showed the greatest potential benefits of expanded age groups. Analysis of expanded age group SIAs in outbreak situations or to accelerate the interruption of endemic transmission showed relatively less benefit, largely due to the circulation of WPV reaching individuals sooner or more effectively than the SIAs. The India and Nigeria results depend strongly on how well SIAs involving expanded age groups reach relatively isolated subpopulations that sustain clusters of susceptible children, which we assume play a key role in persistent endemic WPV transmission in these areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests the need to carefully consider the epidemiological situation in the context of decisions to use expanded age group SIAs. Subpopulations of susceptible individuals may independently sustain transmission, which will reduce the overall benefits associated with using expanded age group SIAs to increase population immunity to a sufficiently high level to stop transmission and reduce the incidence of paralytic cases

The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns

Background: Global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses (WPVs) continue to face challenges due to uninterrupted endemic WPV transmission in three countries and importation-related outbreaks into previously polio-free countries. We explore the potential role of including older children and adults in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) to more rapidly increase population immunity and prevent or stop transmission. Methods: We use a differential equation-based dynamic poliovirus transmission model to analyze the epidemiological impact and vaccine resource implications of expanding target age groups in SIAs. We explore the use of older age groups in SIAs for three situations: alternative responses to the 2010 outbreak in Tajikistan, retrospective examination of elimination in two high-risk states in northern India, and prospective and retrospective strategies to accelerate elimination in endemic northwestern Nigeria. Our model recognizes the ability of individuals with waned mucosal immunity (i.e., immunity from a historical live poliovirus infection) to become re-infected and contribute to transmission to a limited extent. Results: SIAs involving expanded age groups reduce overall caseloads, decrease transmission, and generally lead to a small reduction in the time to achieve WPV elimination. Analysis of preventive expanded age group SIAs in Tajikistan or prior to type-specific surges in incidence in high-risk areas of India and Nigeria showed the greatest potential benefits of expanded age groups. Analysis of expanded age group SIAs in outbreak situations or to accelerate the interruption of endemic transmission showed relatively less benefit, largely due to the circulation of WPV reaching individuals sooner or more effectively than the SIAs. The India and Nigeria results depend strongly on how well SIAs involving expanded age groups reach relatively isolated subpopulations that sustain clusters of susceptible children, which we assume play a key role in persistent endemic WPV transmission in these areas. Conclusions: This study suggests the need to carefully consider the epidemiological situation in the context of decisions to use expanded age group SIAs. Subpopulations of susceptible individuals may independently sustain transmission, which will reduce the overall benefits associated with using expanded age group SIAs to increase population immunity to a sufficiently high level to stop transmission and reduce the incidence of paralytic cases

Modeling undetected live poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: implications for surveillance and vaccination

Background: Most poliovirus infections occur with no symptoms and this leads to the possibility of silent circulation, which complicates the confirmation of global goals to permanently end poliovirus transmission. Previous simple models based on hypothetical populations assumed perfect detection of symptomatic cases and suggested the need to observe no paralytic cases from wild polioviruses (WPVs) for approximately 3-4 years to achieve 95% confidence about eradication, but the complexities in real populations and the imperfect nature of surveillance require consideration. Methods: We revisit the probability of undetected poliovirus circulation using a more comprehensive model that reflects the conditions in a number of places with different characteristics related to WPV transmission, and we model the actual environmental WPV detection that occurred in Israel in 2013. We consider the analogous potential for undetected transmission of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. The model explicitly accounts for the impact of different vaccination activities before and after the last detected case of paralytic polio, different levels of surveillance, variability in transmissibility and neurovirulence among serotypes, and the possibility of asymptomatic participation in transmission by previously-vaccinated or infected individuals. Results: We find that prolonged circulation in the absence of cases and thus undetectable by case-based surveillance may occur if vaccination keeps population immunity close to but not over the threshold required for the interruption of transmission, as may occur in northwestern Nigeria for serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus in the event of insufficient tOPV use. Participation of IPV-vaccinated individuals in asymptomatic fecal-oral transmission may also contribute to extended transmission undetectable by case-based surveillance, as occurred in Israel. We also find that gaps or quality issues in surveillance could significantly reduce confidence about actual disruption. Maintaining high population immunity and high-quality surveillance for several years after the last detected polio cases will remain critical elements of the polio end game. Conclusions: Countries will need to maintain vigilance in their surveillance for polioviruses and recognize that their risks of undetected circulation may differ as a function of their efforts to manage population immunity and to identify cases or circulating live polioviruses

Vaccine-induced mucosal immunity to poliovirus: analysis of cohorts from an open-label, randomised controlled trial in Latin American infants.

BACKGROUND: Identification of mechanisms that limit poliovirus replication is crucial for informing decisions aimed at global polio eradication. Studies of mucosal immunity induced by oral poliovirus (OPV) or inactivated poliovirus (IPV) vaccines and mixed schedules thereof will determine the effectiveness of different vaccine strategies to block virus shedding. We used samples from a clinical trial of different vaccination schedules to measure intestinal immunity as judged by neutralisation of virus and virus-specific IgA in stools. METHODS: In the FIDEC trial, Latin American infants were randomly assigned to nine groups to assess the efficacy of two schedules of bivalent OPV (bOPV) and IPV and challenge with monovalent type 2 OPV, and stools samples were collected. We selected three groups of particular interest-the bOPV control group (serotypes 1 and 3 at 6, 10, and 14 weeks), the trivalent attenuated OPV (tOPV) control group (tOPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks), and the bOPV-IPV group (bOPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks plus IPV at 14 weeks). Neutralising activity and poliovirus type-specific IgA were measured in stool after a monovalent OPV type 2 challenge at 18 weeks of age. Mucosal immunity was measured by in-vitro neutralisation of a type 2 polio pseudovirus (PV2). Neutralisation titres and total and poliovirus-type-specific IgG and IgA concentrations in stools were assessed in samples collected before challenge and 2 weeks after challenge from all participants. FINDINGS: 210 infants from Guatemala and Dominican Republic were included in this analysis. Of 38 infants tested for mucosal antibody in the tOPV group, two were shedding virus 1 week after challenge, compared with 59 of 85 infants receiving bOPV (p<0·0001) and 53 of 87 infants receiving bOPV-IPV (p<0·0001). Mucosal type 2 neutralisation and type-specific IgA were noted primarily in response to tOPV. An inverse correlation was noted between virus shedding and both serum type 2 neutralisation at challenge (p<0·0001) and mucosal type 2 neutralisation at challenge (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Mucosal type-2-specific antibodies can be measured in stool and develop in response to receipt of OPV type 2 either in the primary vaccine series or at challenge. These mucosal antibodies influence the amount of virus that is shed in an established infection. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation