Equivalency of risk for a modified health endpoint: a case from recreational water epidemiology studies

BACKGROUND: The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and its predecessors have conducted three distinct series of epidemiological studies beginning in 1948 on the relationship between bathing water quality and swimmers’ illnesses. Keeping pace with advances in microbial technologies, these studies differed in their respective microbial indicators of water quality. Another difference, however, has been their specific health endpoints. The latest round of studies, the National Epidemiological Assessment of Recreational (NEEAR) Water studies initiated in 2002, used a case definition, termed “NEEAR GI illness” (NGI), for gastrointestinal illness corresponding closely to classifications employed by contemporary researchers, and to that proposed by the World Health Organization. NGI differed from the previous definition of “highly credible gastrointestinal illness” (HCGI) upon which the USEPA’s 1986 bathing water criteria had been based, primarily by excluding fever as a prerequisite. METHODS: Incidence of NGI from the NEEAR studies was compared to that of HCGI from earlier studies. Markov chain Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the respective beta binomial probability densities for NGI and HCGI establish credible intervals for the risk ratio of NGI to HCGI. RESULTS: The ratio of NGI risk to that of HCGI is estimated to be 4.5 with a credible interval 3.2 to 7.7. CONCLUSIONS: A risk level of 8 HCGI illnesses per 1000 swimmers, as in the 1986 freshwater criteria, would correspond to 36 NGI illnesses per 1000 swimmers. Given a microbial DNA-based (qPCR) water quality vs. risk relationship developed from the NEEAR studies, 36 NGI per 1000 corresponds to a geometric mean of 475 qPCR cell-equivalents per 100 ml

Rapidly Measured Indicators of Recreational Water Quality Are Predictive of Swimming-Associated Gastrointestinal Illness

Standard methods to measure recreational water quality require at least 24 hr to obtain results, making it impossible to assess the quality of water within a single day. Methods to measure recreational water quality in ≤ 2 hr have been developed. Application of rapid methods could give considerably more accurate and timely assessments of recreational water quality. We conducted a prospective study of beachgoers at two Great Lakes beaches to examine the association between recreational water quality, obtained using rapid methods, and gastrointestinal (GI) illness after swimming. Beachgoers were asked about swimming and other beach activities and 10–12 days later were asked about the occurrence of GI symptoms. We tested water samples for Enterococcus and Bacteroides species using the quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method. We observed significant trends between increased GI illness and Enterococcus at the Lake Michigan beach and a positive trend for Enterococcus at the Lake Erie beach. The association remained significant for Enterococcus when the two beaches were combined. We observed a positive trend for Bacteroides at the Lake Erie beach, but no trend was observed at the Lake Michigan beach. Enterococcus samples collected at 0800 hr were predictive of GI illness that day. The association between Enterococcus and illness strengthened as time spent swimming in the water increased. This is the first study to show that water quality measured by rapid methods can predict swimming-associated health effects

A Prospective Study of Marine Phytoplankton and Reported Illness Among Recreational Beachgoers in Puerto Rico, 2009

Background:Blooms of marine phytoplankton may adversely affect human health. The potential public health impact of low-level exposures is not well established, and few prospective cohort studies of recreational exposures to marine phytoplankton have been conducted.Objective:We evaluated the association between phytoplankton cell counts and subsequent illness among recreational beachgoers.Methods:We recruited beachgoers at Boquerón Beach, Puerto Rico, during the summer of 2009. We conducted interviews at three time points to assess baseline health, water activities, and subsequent illness. Daily water samples were quantitatively assayed for phytoplankton cell count. Logistic regression models, adjusted for age and sex, were used to assess the association between exposure to three categories of phytoplankton concentration and subsequent illness.Results:During 26 study days, 15,726 individuals successfully completed all three interviews. Daily total phytoplankton cell counts ranged from 346 to 2,012 cells/mL (median, 712 cells/mL). The category with the highest (≥ 75th percentile) total phytoplankton cell count was associated with eye irritation [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.66], rash (OR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.57), and earache (OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.77). In phytoplankton group-specific analyses, the category with the highest Cyanobacteria counts was associated with respiratory illness (OR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.67), rash (OR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.66), eye irritation (OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.62), and earache (OR = 1.35; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.93).Conclusions:We found associations between recreational exposure to marine phytoplankton and reports of eye irritation, respiratory illness, and rash. We also found that associations varied by phytoplankton group, with Cyanobacteria having the strongest and most consistent associations.Citation:Lin CJ, Wade TJ, Sams EA, Dufour AP, Chapman AD, Hilborn ED. 2016. A prospective study of marine phytoplankton and reported illness among recreational beachgoers in Puerto Rico, 2009. Environ Health Perspect 124:477–483; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.140955

Fecal Indicators in Sand, Sand Contact, and Risk of Enteric Illness Among Beachgoers

Beach sand can harbor fecal indicator organisms and pathogens, but enteric illness risk associated with sand contact remains unclear

Water quality, weather and environmental factors associated with fecal indicator organism density in beach sand at two recreational marine beaches

Recent studies showing an association between fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in sand and gastrointestinal (GI) illness among beachgoers with sand contact have important public health implications because of the large numbers of people who recreate at beaches and engage in sand contact activities. Yet, factors that influence fecal pollution in beach sand remain unclear. During the 2007 National Epidemiological and Environmental Assessment of Recreational (NEEAR) Water Study, sand samples were collected at three locations (60 m apart) on weekend days (Sat, Sun) and holidays between June and September at two marine beaches — Fairhope Beach, AL and Goddard Beach, RI — with nearby publicly-owned treatment works (POTWs) outfalls. F+ coliphage, enterococci, Bacteroidales, fecal Bacteroides spp., and Clostridium spp. were measured in sand using culture and qPCR-based calibrator-cell equivalent methods. Water samples were also collected on the same days, times and transects as the 144 sand samples and were assayed using the same FIO measurements. Weather and environmental data were collected at the time of sample collection. Mean FIO concentrations in sand varied over time, but not space. Enterococci CFU and CCE densities in sand were not correlated, although other FIOs in sand were. The strongest correlation between FIO density in sand and water was fecal Bacteroides CCE, followed by enterococci CFU, Clostridium spp. CCE, and Bacteroidales CCE. Overall, the factors associated with FIO concentrations in sand were related to the sand–water interface (i.e., sand-wetting) and included daily average densities of FIOs in water, rainfall, and wave height. Targeted monitoring that focuses on daily trends of sand FIO variability, combined with information about specific water quality, weather, and environmental factors may inform beach monitoring and management decisions to reduce microbial burdens in beach sand

Rapidly measured indicators of recreational water quality and swimming-associated illness at marine beaches: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>In the United States and elsewhere, recreational water quality is monitored for fecal indicator bacteria to help prevent swimming-associated illnesses. Standard methods to measure these bacteria take at least 24 hours to obtain results. Molecular approaches such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) can estimate these bacteria faster, in under 3 hours. Previously, we demonstrated that measurements of the fecal indicator bacteria <it>Enterococcus </it>using qPCR were associated with gastrointestinal (GI) illness among swimmers at freshwater beaches. In this paper, we report on results from three marine beach sites.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We interviewed beach-goers and collected water samples at marine beaches affected by treated sewage discharges in Mississippi in 2005, and Rhode Island and Alabama in 2007. Ten to twelve days later, we obtained information about gastrointestinal, respiratory, eye, ear and skin symptoms by telephone. We tested water samples for fecal indicator organisms using qPCR and other methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We enrolled 6,350 beach-goers. The occurrence of GI illness among swimmers was associated with a log₁₀-increase in exposure to qPCR-determined estimates of fecal indicator organisms in the genus <it>Enterococcus </it>(AOR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.1) and order <it>Bacteroidales </it>(AOR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.3-2.9). Estimates of organisms related to <it>Clostridium perfringens </it>and a subgroup of organisms in the genus <it>Bacteroides </it>were also determined by qPCR in 2007, as was F+ coliphage, but relationships between these indicators and illness were not statistically significant.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provides the first evidence of a relationship between gastrointestinal illness and estimates of fecal indicator organisms determined by qPCR at marine beaches.</p

The seeds of divergence: the economy of French North America, 1688 to 1760

Generally, Canada has been ignored in the literature on the colonial origins of divergence with most of the attention going to the United States. Late nineteenth century estimates of income per capita show that Canada was relatively poorer than the United States and that within Canada, the French and Catholic population of Quebec was considerably poorer. Was this gap long standing? Some evidence has been advanced for earlier periods, but it is quite limited and not well-suited for comparison with other societies. This thesis aims to contribute both to Canadian economic history and to comparative work on inequality across nations during the early modern period. With the use of novel prices and wages from Quebec—which was then the largest settlement in Canada and under French rule—a price index, a series of real wages and a measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are constructed. They are used to shed light both on the course of economic development until the French were defeated by the British in 1760 and on standards of living in that colony relative to the mother country, France, as well as the American colonies. The work is divided into three components. The first component relates to the construction of a price index. The absence of such an index has been a thorn in the side of Canadian historians as it has limited the ability of historians to obtain real values of wages, output and living standards. This index shows that prices did not follow any trend and remained at a stable level. However, there were episodes of wide swings—mostly due to wars and the monetary experiment of playing card money. The creation of this index lays the foundation of the next component. The second component constructs a standardized real wage series in the form of welfare ratios (a consumption basket divided by nominal wage rate multiplied by length of work year) to compare Canada with France, England and Colonial America. Two measures are derived. The first relies on a “bare bones” definition of consumption with a large share of land-intensive goods. This measure indicates that Canada was poorer than England and Colonial America and not appreciably richer than France. However, this measure overestimates the relative position of Canada to the Old World because of the strong presence of land-intensive goods. A second measure is created using a “respectable” definition of consumption in which the basket includes a larger share of manufactured goods and capital-intensive goods. This second basket better reflects differences in living standards since the abundance of land in Canada (and Colonial America) made it easy to achieve bare subsistence, but the scarcity of capital and skilled labor made the consumption of luxuries and manufactured goods (clothing, lighting, imported goods) highly expensive. With this measure, the advantage of New France over France evaporates and turns slightly negative. In comparison with Britain and Colonial America, the gap widens appreciably. This element is the most important for future research. By showing a reversal because of a shift to a different type of basket, it shows that Old World and New World comparisons are very sensitive to how we measure the cost of living. Furthermore, there are no sustained improvements in living standards over the period regardless of the measure used. Gaps in living standards observed later in the nineteenth century existed as far back as the seventeenth century. In a wider American perspective that includes the Spanish colonies, Canada fares better. The third component computes a new series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is to avoid problems associated with using real wages in the form of welfare ratios which assume a constant labor supply. This assumption is hard to defend in the case of Colonial Canada as there were many signs of increasing industriousness during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The GDP series suggest no long-run trend in living standards (from 1688 to circa 1765). The long peace era of 1713 to 1740 was marked by modest economic growth which offset a steady decline that had started in 1688, but by 1760 (as a result of constant warfare) living standards had sunk below their 1688 levels. These developments are accompanied by observations that suggest that other indicators of living standard declined. The flat-lining of incomes is accompanied by substantial increases in the amount of time worked, rising mortality and rising infant mortality. In addition, comparisons of incomes with the American colonies confirm the results obtained with wages— Canada was considerably poorer. At the end, a long conclusion is provides an exploratory discussion of why Canada would have diverged early on. In structural terms, it is argued that the French colony was plagued by the problem of a small population which prohibited the existence of scale effects. In combination with the fact that it was dispersed throughout the territory, the small population of New France limited the scope for specialization and economies of scale. However, this problem was in part created, and in part aggravated, by institutional factors like seigneurial tenure. The colonial origins of French America’s divergence from the rest of North America are thus partly institutional